World's refined copper production to increase by 2.8% in 2024: ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently forecasted that World's refined copper production is going to increase by approximately 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.

In 2024, refined copper output is expected to recover from a series of maintenance outages, accidents and operational issues that occurred in 2023 in a number of major producing countries including Chile, Japan, India, Indonesia and the US.

In general, primary electrolytic refined output is anticipated to grow by 2.9%, while electrowinning production is forecasted to rise by 0.5%.

World copper mine production to rise by 0.5% in 2024

World copper mine production's growth for 2024 has been revised down to 0.5% from the previously forecasted 3.7% in October 2023. This is primarily attributed to slower project ramp-ups, commissioning delays, revised company production guidance, and the closure of First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine with a capacity of 380,000 t per year.

In 2025, global production will see advantages from the commencement of the Malmyzhskoye mine in the Russian Federation and the Kamoa-Kakula phase 3 expansion in the DRC. Additionally, several expansions and the inauguration of medium and small mines will contribute to the overall production.

World apparent refined copper usage to rise by approximately 2% in 2024

The growth rate of global refined copper usage for 2024 has been adjusted down to 2% from the previously forecasted 2.7% during the group's October 2023 meetings. Chinese usage is anticipated to increase by approximately 2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025.

Following a projected 3% decrease in 2023, global ex-China usage is forecasted to rise by 2.4% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025. This growth is primarily attributed to the establishment of new semi-production capacity in India and various other nations.

Copper plays a vital role in economic activity and modern technological advancements. Furthermore, infrastructure projects in key nations and the global shift towards cleaner energy and electric vehicles will uphold copper demand in the foreseeable future.

World refined copper balance forecasts show a surplus of approximately 162,000 tonnes in 2024

ICSG anticipates a surplus of approximately 162,000 tonnes for 2024, a decrease from the previously forecasted surplus of about 467,000 t last October. This difference is primarily attributed to lower-than-expected refined copper production. For 2025, a surplus of about 94,000 t is currently projected.

Copper LME trend

Copper prices in LME hit $10,000/t , a two year high level amid tight supplies such as shutdown of First Quantum Minerals' large Cobre Panama mine in December and growing demand from energy transition applications such as electric vehicles as well as new technology such as artificial intelligence and automation.