World crude steel production in Sept'21 down 9% y-o-y to 144.4 mn t

World crude steel production fell 8.9% to 144.4 million tonnes (mn t) in Sept'21 as against 158.51 mn t in the same-period last year, as per the latest WSA data. Also, on a m-o-m basis, global crude steel output declined 8% against 156.8 mn t in August.

Meanwhile, in the Jan-Sep'21 period, cumulative output stood at 1,461.2 mn t, up 7.8% y-o-y.

Top three steel producing nations

1. China's crude steel output down 21.2% y-o-y: The world's largest steel producing country, China, churned out 73.8 mn t of crude steel this September, registering a 21.2% decline against CPLY.

• There were increased production controls in major steelmaking hubs such as Hebei and Jiangsu, along with Tangshan.
  
  
• The country implemented a limit in energy consumption amid coal shortages.
  
  
• Impending announcement of an export duty on HRCs lowered exports m-o-m by 3% in September over August since-mid May although overall exports over Jan-Sept'21 are up 31%.
  
  
• There has been increased competition from other exporting countries such as India, Russia etc.
  
  

On the other hand, in Jan-Sept'21, total production stood at 805.9 mn t, an increase of 2% on a y-o-y basis. China is short of approximately 260 mn t to match the CY'20 levels of 1,064.8 mn t, and maintaining the current level of production will be sufficient to achieve this target.

2. India's crude steel production up 7.2% y-o-y: India, the second-largest steel producing nation, recorded an output of 9.5 mn t of crude steel in Sept'21, up 7.2% compared to 8.86 mn t in Sept'20.

During Jan-Sept'21 production volumes jumped 23.3% to 87.3 mn t as against 70.80 mn t in Jan-Sept'20.

Exports improve: Exports got a boost in the current calendar owing to higher realisations, competitive offers and limited competition from other major exporting nations like Japan, China and South Korea in the South East Asian market. During (Jan-Sept'21) 9MCY'21, India's finished flat steel export volumes aggregated to 10.26 mn t, significantly up by 26% contrasted against 8.16 mn t in CPLY. The average monthly Indian HRC (SAE 1006) export index stood at around $875/t FOB east coast in Sept'21 which was around $525/t FOB in Sept'20.

Mills ramping up capacities: Steel mills in India are all set to ramp up their capacities in the coming quarters backed by the restrictions on Chinese steel production and export volumes in CY'21.

a) JSW has recently commissioned a 5-mtpa brownfield expansion with one of India largest blast furnaces. It is also aiming to produce 18.5 mn t in FY'22.

b) Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL), another leading steel major, posted a 5% increase in crude steel production y-o-y . Crude steel output stood at 1.93 mn t in Q3CY'21 in contrast with 1.84 mn t in the same period last year.

3. Japan's crude steel production surges 25% y-o-y: Japanese mills produced 25.6% more of crude steel at 8.10 mn t in Sept'21 compared to 6.45 mn t in CPLY.

Also, in Jan-Sept'21, production rose by 17.9% y-o-y to 72.1 mn t compared to 61.15 mn t in the same period last year.

In addition, Japan's finished flat steel exports are up by 15% to 2.16 mn t in Aug in contrast to 1.88 mn t in the same period last year.