What to expect from Indian manganese ore market in Sep'24?
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- Imported manganese ore offers at 6-month low
- Global miners reduce prices amid dull demand
- Silico manganese exports skid, drag down prices
Morning Brief: India's domestic manganese ore prices are likely to witness a downward correction in September, 2024, as per BigMint's forecast.
On average, prices have fared better in 2024 compared to last year. For instance, over January-July, 2024, priced averaged over INR 16,300/tonne ($194/t) against a lower INR 13,000/t ($155/t) in the same period last year. However, these did start improving from May, climbing to over INR 17,000/t ($203/t) but fell back again especially from August to around INR 15,000/t ($179/t) levels.
What factors are likely to drag down prices?
Imported manganese ore offers to India at 6-month lows: Imported manganese ore offers to India hit six-month lows in August 2024. Offers for the benchmark Mn37% lumps from South Africa to India fell to $4/dmtu, the lowest since end-February 2024. The high-grade imported Mn ore is hovering at over-three-month lows of $6.2-6.65/dmtu. Since imported ore provides a direction for domestic pricing, a downward pressure is expected next month.
Global miners lower Mn ore offers in Aug: Global miners like United Manganese of Kalahari (UMK) and Jupiter Mines Limited operating the Tshipi Borwa mine in South Africa, decreased their August shipment offers. UMK lowered its 36% grade semi-carbonate lump price by $2.4/dmtu m-o-m to $3.80/dmtu CIF China.
Jupiter Mines, meanwhile, set its August CIF China prices of the high-grade 36.5% semi-carbonate lump at $3.9/dmtu, a significant fall from last month's $6.3/dmtu. The manganese ore is sourced from its Tshipi Borwa mine in the Kalahari fields.
Eramet Comilog lowered its September 2024 prices of Gabonese grade Mn44.5% to around $6/dmtu CNF China, while the Gabonese chip fell to around 5.80/dmtu CNF China, both down over 30% m-o-m. However, the latter could not be confirmed till the time of publishing the report.
The price falls across miners can be attributed to declined demand from manganese alloys smelters globally amid the subdued demand for steel.
Higher inventories weigh down Chinese manganese ore prices: The production cuts under way in China, amid falling demand for finished steel, has negatively impacted manganese alloys smelters. This scenario, in turn, has shrunk the demand for manganese ore, resulting in a pile-up of ore stocks at Chinese ports.
Demand for silico manganese in China has decreased, affected by the reduction in steel production. Weekly demand for the material has cumulatively fallen for eight consecutive weeks by 19%, and y-o-y, by 22%.
Weaker manganese alloys market sentiments in India: Domestic silico manganese prices in India are hovering at a four-month low. The benchmark SiMn 60-14 from Raipur is hovering at around INR 68,400/t. These levels were last seen in early April 2024. One key reason for the drastic fall in prices is the decline in exports of silico manganese. Around 50% of the total domestic manganese alloys production gets exported. Thus, a dull overseas market has obviously weakened domestic prices.
Outlook
MOIL had reduced domestic ore prices for August 2024 sales by up to 27%. The market buzz is that prices could be further lowered for September sales amid the dull demand for finished steels within India and overseas.
Get ready for IFAC 2024
The International Ferro Alloys Conference (IFAC), the flagship event of the Indian Ferroalloys Producers' Association (IFAPA), will get under way from 17-19 September, 2024 in New Delhi. It is an annual conclave witnessing the congregation of the entire ferro-alloys industry on a single platform. The pivotal theme of IFAC 2024 is green industrial transition. Building on the success of IFAC 2023 held in Goa, the upcoming edition seeks to stimulate discussion on sustainable practices in ferro alloys production, spotlighting the role of low-carbon energy and strategies for reducing the industry's GHG footprint. It also aims to enhance the presence of India on the global ferro alloys map.
Hurry, before registration closes!
