Weekly round-up: Semi-finished steel prices show uptick on moderate demand

The domestic steel market saw a positive trend in prices during week 33 ( 12-17 August, 2024), as semi-finished steel prices edged up by INR 100-600/tonne (t). Domestic induction furnace finished long steel offers saw mixed trends.

Iron ore and pellets

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, decreased by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 8,950/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 16 August. Around 25,000 pellet (Fe62.5-63%) deals were recorded in the Raipur region this week. Major pellet producers from Raipur kept their pellet sales closed this week.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index decreased by $3/tonne (t) w-o-w to $54/t FOB east coast on 14 August. The market remained silent as Indian sellers remained away from the market amid bids and offers disparity following the higher domestic ex-mines prices along with logistic and port charges.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) fell by $6/t w-o-w at $87/tonne (t) on 16 August. No pellet export deals was concluded by Indian sellers in the last one week amid the downtrend market movement.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 t) freight rates for an iron ore vessel from the east coast of India to China remained stable w-o-w to $13/tonnes (t) on 14 August. The hike in bunker prices and lower demand in the Indian ocean amid monsoon season have slowed down inquiries.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal dropped by 5% w-o-w to $204.5/t FOB. This price fell on sufficient September loading cargoes accompanied with low buying demand
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices edged up for the week at $110/t FOB. RB3 prices remained unchanged at $75/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port remained largely stable at INR 7,700/t.
  
  

Ferrous Scrap

• India's imported scrap market remained sluggish, with demand nearly non-existent due to a lack of buying interest driven by weak domestic steel sales. Steel mills across the country scaled back production, opting for cheaper domestic alternatives like sponge iron over imported scrap. Offers for shredded scrap from the US and Europe fluctuated between $400-405/t CFR Nhava Sheva, but buyers were largely absent, finding these prices too high compared to domestic options. HMS (80:20) offers also failed to attract interest even though prices dropped to around $375-380/t CFR. Mills and traders alike expressed reluctance to engage in imported scrap bookings, citing the unfavourable price gap and weak steel demand. Some buyers, however, secured small deals in anticipation of tighter supply, but the overall sentiment remained cautious and bearish throughout the week.
  
  

Ferro Alloys

• Silico Manganese: Silico manganese prices remained largely steady w-o-w, inching down by around INR 250/t ($3/t) to INR 68,200-68,900/t ($812-821/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur and Vishakhapatnam. Domestic silico manganese prices stayed range-bound for another week driven by cautious buying activity and limited market movement.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: India's ferro manganese (HC70%) prices remained stable with slight a decline w-o-w of around INR 100/t ($1/t) in Raipur to INR 75,000/t ($893/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur, prices dropped INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 74,700/t ($890/t). Prices inched down as market participants adopted a cautious approach and engaged solely in need-based purchases.
  
  
• Ferro Silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices dropped around INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w, settling at INR 88,400/t ($1,053/t) exw-Guwahati on 16 August. Meanwhile, Bhutan's prices fell by INR 700/t ($8/t) reaching INR 89,100/t ($1,061/t) exw. Prices dropped as resistance continued in the market to higher offers.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) stayed range-bound w-o-w, inching down by INR 300/t ($4/t) on 14 August, settling at INR 103,100/t ($1,228/t) exw-Jajpur. Prices held steady as regular trades occurred in the market last week.
  
  

Semi-finished Steel

• Semi-finished steel prices showed an uptrend, as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices increased by INR 100-600/t across regions, with a major increase of INR 600/t seen in the Rourkela market. Similarly, sponge iron prices also increased in almost all key locations by INR 150-700/t, with a major increase of INR 700/t seen in the Ramgarh market.
  
  
• SAIL-Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) held an auction for 2,000 t of steel grade pig iron on 16 August. The total quantity was booked at an average price of INR 35,220/t exw.
  
  
• Indian DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) export offers increased by approximately $15-21/t, reaching $363/t on CPT Benapole and $343/t CPT Raxaul.
  
  

Finished Long Steel

• IF rebar: India's induction furnace finished long steel market witnessed a marginal uptick in prices w-o-w. Sellers were trying to keep offers stable as prices seemed to have bottomed out and only changed their trade discounts. However, buyers remained inactive and procured material on need-basis only. A similar trend was seen in sponge iron, scrap and steel billets. According to market participants, since prices are at the lowest level traders want to place orders. However, owing to market uncertainty they are likely to prefer to wait and watch. Prices, however, are likely to stay range-bound as sellers may attempt to hold offers at current levels.
  
  
• Rebar prices increased slightly in the range of INR 100-400/t across regions except in a few markets where prices fell by INR 300/t, as per BigMint assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 41,100-41,500/t exw Raipur, INR 44,400-45,000/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• The trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 44,000-44,500/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rods are hovering at INR 42,500-43,000/t ex Raipur.
  
  

• BF rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices dropped w-o-w amid weak buying interest across markets, marking the 10th consecutive week of declining prices. Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm) in the trade segment dropped INR 400/t w-o-w to INR 49,900/t exy-Mumbai. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
  
  
• In the projects segment, prices were hovering around INR 48,000-49,000/t FOR Mumbai. Market activities were subdued amid continuous decline in prices and bid-offer disparity.
  
  

Finished Flat Steel

• BigMint's bi-weekly benchmark evaluation for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) ex-Mumbai declined by INR100/t to INR 50,300/t on 13 August from INR50,400/t on 13 August. Similarly, CRC (0.9mm, IS513 CR1) ex-Mumbai prices dipped INR 100/t to INR 57,400/t by 16 August compared to INR 57,500/ on 13 August. All prices exclude 18% GST.
  
  
• The domestic steel market is facing sluggish demand, coupled with substantial inventory levels at various points in the supply chain. Additionally, the significant influx of imports has further intensified downward pressure on prices.
  
  
• As evidenced by BigMint's vessel lineup data, cumulative import volumes reached 287,452 t till 12 August. Imports were 636,651 t in July 2024, with an additional 106,372 t expected to arrive by end of August.
  
  
• The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel from Vietnam, encompassing various specifications with a thickness of up to 25 mm and a width of up to 2,100 mm. This action is in response to a petition filed by the Indian Steel Association (ISA), alleging that these imports are being sold at prices below their fair market value, resulting in material injury to the domestic steel industry.
  
  
• Indian steel producers have maintained a cautious stance on HRC export offers to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, primarily driven by the escalating global trend of protectionism and anti-dumping policies.
  
  
• The recent initiation of anti-dumping investigations into HRC imports from India and other countries by the European Union and Vietnam has further exacerbated challenges for Indian steel exports.
  
  
• Moreover, the seasonal decline in demand in the Middle East and the competitive landscape posed by Chinese HRC offers have contributed to the current subdued export market for Indian HRCs.