Weekly round-up: Semi-finished steel prices rise; primary mills trim rebar offers amid market uncertainty

• HRC, CRC tags remain stable in most markets
  
  
• Bulk flats imports drop to lowest level in FY'25
  
  

Indian semi-finished steel prices trended up w-o-w, with billet tags in most key locations increasing by INR 250-1,500/t. Meanwhile, trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices dropped w-o-w amid subdued demand. Primary mills offered rebates/discounts on their list prices to spur buying interest.

Iron ore, pellet

• Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) conducted an auction for approximately 2.26 million tonnes (mnt) of iron ore, (0.861 mnt of lumps and 1.401 mnt of fines) on 18 December. Amid a positive response from steelmakers, the entire quantity was sold at INR 2,250-8,150/t. However, bids (weighted average) for fines decreased by around INR 150/t against last month's auction, while they increased by INR 200/t for lumps. The miner reduced base prices by INR 300-400/t m-o-m.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, increased by INR 300/t w-o-w to INR 9,350/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 13 December. The rise came in the wake of Raipur-based producers raising their offers for pellet Fe 63% (+/_0.5%) by INR 200/t ($2.5/t) w-o-w to INR 9,200-9,300/t ($109-110/t) exw on 19 December. Deals for around 40,000 t were concluded in Raipur this week at the revised offers.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index decreased by $2/t w-o-w to $65/t FOB east coast, India, on 19 December 2024. As per sources, a 55,000-t (Fe55-57%) deal was concluded at $76.5/t CFR China for January delivery a couple of days back. Iron ore fines export offers dropped this week, driven by weakened demand in the Chinese market and a fall in global indices.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) fell by $4/t w-o-w to $97.5/t on 20 December. Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk freights (50,000-55,000 t) for iron ore shipments from the east coast of India to China dropped $0.2/t w-o-w to $11/t on 18 December. Dry bulk iron ore freights continued to downtrend this week, influenced by weak trading activity in the Pacific basin, cautious market sentiments, and a lack of fresh inquiries.
  
  

Coal

• India's portside prices of South African thermal coal declined this week due to increased port stocks and subdued demand. BigMint's assessment showed that RB2 (5500 NAR) prices dropped by INR 50-100/t w-o-w to INR 9,350/t, while RB3 (4800 NAR) prices fell by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 7,800/t, both ex-Gangavaram. Weak buying sentiment contributed to the market's downturn.
  
  
• Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports increased by 2.3% w-o-w to 13.29 mnt in week 50 from 13 mnt in week 49, as per BigMint's data.
  
  
• India's domestic coal prices continued to decline this week. BigMint's assessment showed that 4500 GCV coal was at INR 4,900/t, down by INR 50/t w-o-w, while 5000 GCV coal stood at INR 6,200/t, a drop of INR 200/t w-o-w, exw-Bilaspur.
  
  

Ferrous scrap

• India's imported scrap market saw a rise in prices this week despite limited buying interest and price fluctuations. Sellers, particularly from Australia, the US, and the UK/Europe, maintained firm pricing, but buyer demand remained weak due to high inventory levels and cautious sentiment. Indian buyers focused on nearshore shipments, holding off on purchases in expectation of better market conditions in the coming months.
  
  
• European scrap offers were higher due to recent Turkish deals, but Indian buyers found them too expensive, especially with the upcoming winter holidays.
  
  
• By the week's end, the market slowed down for the holidays, with many delaying imports until mid-January in expectation of better conditions.
  
  
• Approximately 8,000-9,000 t of scrap were booked, including 1,500-2,000 t of shredded from Australia and the UK at $380-388/t and HMS (80:20), PNS, Busheling, and HMS (60:40) from Australia, UK, Middle East, and Caribbean at $325-392/t.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: Domestic silico manganese prices rose amid production cuts at smelters and a recovery in the steel market. Prices of the 60-14 grade rose by INR 1,050/t ($12/t) w-o-w to INR 66,250-66,750/t ($780-786/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: Indian ferro manganese (HC 70%) prices increased by INR 1,400/t ($16/t) w-o-w to INR 67,950/t ($800/t) exw in Raipur and by INR 1,300/t ($15/t) w-o-w to INR 67,800/t ($798/t) exw in Durgapur. Prices increased on improved domestic steel demand and possible production cuts in the regions.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi: 70%) prices were largely stable w-o-w, up slightly by INR 100/t ($1/t) to INR 102,900/t ($1,212/t) exw-Guwahati on 20 December. However, Bhutan's prices edged down by INR 300/t ($4/t) w-o-w to INR 103,200/t ($1,215 /t) exw. The market did not witness major changes, with routine trade continuing. The slight decline was attributed to bid-offer gaps.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si: 4%) prices remained largely stable, registering a slight decline of INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 105,000/t ($1,236/t) exw-Jajpur. Prices were stable, as most market players remained on the sidelines, awaiting the conclusion of the chrome ore auction from the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) on 18 December.

  At the auction, of the 65,800 t offered (including the sub-40% grade), 30,800 t of material were sold. Bids fell 9-36% m-o-m for most grades (INR 2,586-11,020/t). A bid premium of 10-25% (INR 2,100-5,500/t) was observed, but only for higher grades.
  
  

Semi finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed an uptrend w-o-w, as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations increased by INR 250-1,500/t w-o-w across regions, with a major increase of INR 1,500/t seen in the Goa market. However, sponge iron prices showed mixed trends. Tags in almost all key locations increased by INR 200-1,300/t w-o-w, with a major increase of INR 1,300/t seen in the Hyderabad market. However, Durgapur's prices were down by INR 100-150/t.
  
  
  

• NMDC's 24,000-t pig iron auction on 19 December 2024 saw a lukewarm response, and buyer interest fell short of expectations. Only one lot of 4,000 t received bids at INR 30,000/t, with management approval still pending. In the previous auction, on 16 December 2024, only 3,000 t of 15,000 t were booked at an average price of INR 31,000/t.
  
  
  

• Indian direct reduced iron (DRI) export offers increased by $9/t for CPT Raxaul to $349/t, while CPT Benapole ones increased by $10/t to $360/t.
  
  
  

• IF route: India's induction furnace (IF) route finished long steel prices showed an upward trend this week, with offers increasing by INR 250-1,500/t w-o-w. Suppliers raised offers on improved buying inquiries as well as rising raw material prices. Buyers booked an average volume of material, as they felt prices were likely to remain on the higher side. These factors kept prices supported throughout the week. As per participants, a similar trend might prevail in the near term, as manufacturers have moderate bookings.
  
  
• On a w-o-w basis, rebar prices surged by INR 400-1,700/t across regions, as per BigMint's assessment.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of Fe 500 grade rebar (10-25 mm size) manufactured via the IF route were assessed at INR 42,000-42,500/t exw-Raipur and INR 47,200-47,800/t exw-Jalna.
  
  
• The trade reference price of heavy structural steel for the base size 150 mm channel stood at INR 44,300-44,800/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rods hovered at INR 42,400-43,000/t ex-Raipur.
  
  
• BF rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices dropped w-o-w amid subdued domestic demand. Limited buying interest weighed on market sentiments. Leading mills offered rebates/discounts on their list prices on prevailing market uncertainties. Rebar prices (12-32 mm) in the trade segment fell by INR 600/t w-o-w to INR 52,400/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices fell w-o-w to INR 50,000-51,000/t FOR Mumbai. Buying activities were on need basis amid weak market sentiments.
  
  

Flat steel

• • India's trade-level prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) and cold-rolled coils (CRC) remained stable this week, at INR 46,700-48,700/t ($549-573/t) and INR 53,200-58,500/t ($625-688/t), respectively, across different regions.
    
    
  • Demand in the traders' market remained subdued, with buyers meeting their immediate needs through credit purchases. Numerous distributors across various markets expressed concerns over sluggish sales and the growing pressure to liquidate inventory at reduced prices in order to generate cash flow.
    
    
  • Imports of bulk HRC and plates declined to their lowest level in this financial year to 192,824 t till 16 December 2024, as per the bulk vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. Further, it is expected that another 159,004 t will be imported by the month-end.
    
    
  • Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East experienced a decline of $5-10/t this week to $540/t CFR UAE, following the conclusion of a 25,000-t deal for January 2025 shipment. Indian HRC export offers to Europe remained stable at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB east coast India) for S275, 3 mm material. European buyers remained apprehensive regarding the procurement of Indian-origin HRC, citing concerns surrounding the ongoing anti-dumping investigation and extended lead times.