Weekly round-up: Semi-finished steel prices increase, primary mills hike offers

Prices of domestic induction furnace (IF) route finished long steel showed a positive trend this week. Primary mills quoted higher offers, which turned the focus on the secondary market.

Iron ore and pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, fell by INR 150/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 8,800/t DAP Raipur on 30 August. Deals of around 64,000 t of pellets (Fe62.5-63%) were recorded in the Raipur region this week. Raipur-based pellet makers reduced their offers for Fe 63% (+/_0.5%) pellets by INR 200/t ($2.5/t) to INR 8,900/t ($106/t) exw-Raipur.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $4.5/t w-o-w to $58.5/t FOB east coast on 29 August. Despite the improvement in prices, no major transactions were closed by exporters during this period owing to a bid-offer disparity.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast), tracking the global iron ore price recovery, increased by $4/t w-o-w to $95/t on 30 August. An eastern India-based pellet producer recently finalised an export deal for 75,000 t of pellets (Fe63%, 8% SiO2+ Al2O3) at around $110.3/t CFR China for September shipment.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 t) freight rates for iron ore vessels from the east coast of India to China inched down by $0.24/t w-o-w, reaching $12.9/t as of 28 August.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal was largely stable at $198/t FOB. Most buyers preferred to remain on the sidelines to witness the change in prices.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices remained unchanged for the week at $111/t FOB. RB3 prices remained largely stable at $74/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port were down by INR 100/t to INR 7,600/t.
  
  

Ferro scrap

• India's imported scrap market experienced a challenging and bearish week, characterised by sluggish demand and hesitant buyers. Shredded scrap offers fluctuated between $385 and 395/t CFR Nhava Sheva, but buyers were reluctant, seeking prices below $385/t. HMS (80:20) offers from the UK/Europe and West Africa ranged from $365/t to $375/t CFR, with buyers targeting even lower levels, reflecting a lack of urgency in the market.
  
  
• The downturn was driven by several factors, including weak steel demand, more attractive domestic scrap options, and widespread expectations of further price declines. Buyers were cautious, drawing parallels to the 2008 market downturn, while sellers struggled to find willing participants at current price levels. Additionally, the Indian market's sentiment was further impacted by the Turkish market, where bearish trends influenced decision-making among Asian buyers. The impending nationwide port workers' strike, which began on 28 August, added to the uncertainty, with disruptions in trade and port activities.
  
  
• Although some suppliers believe that prices are nearing the bottom, a significant recovery seems unlikely before mid-September. The market remains under pressure, with the end of the monsoon season and potential demand recovery in September offering the only glimmers of hope.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: Silico manganese prices remained largely stable with a slight decline of around INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 67,700-67,900/t ($807-809/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam. The Indian domestic silico manganese market inched down this week, with delayed booking activity by steel mills. Subdued demand has hampered the overall market environment.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: India's ferro manganese (HC70%) prices inched down by around INR 900/t ($11/t) w-o-w in Raipur to INR 73,600/t ($877/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur, prices dropped marginally by around INR 900/t ($11/t) w-o-w to INR 73,400/t ($875/t). Prices followed a downward trend this week, as market demand continued to be need-based and weak.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices remained stable with a slight fluctuation, inching up by around INR 300/t ($4/t) w-o-w, settling at INR 88,900/t ($1,060/t) exw-Guwahati on 30 August. In contrast, prices in Bhutan decreased slightly by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w, reaching INR 88,800/t ($1,059/t) exw. Prices were stable, as routine trades were carried out in the market, and no other significant changes were seen.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) inched up w-o-w by INR 300/t ($4/t) on 30 August, reaching INR 107,000/t ($1,275/t) exw-Jajpur. Prices have reached almost a one-month high following higher bids at the recent chrome ore auction of Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC). Offers increased, which garnered acceptance among buyers in the market.
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed an uptrend as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in most key locations increased by INR 50-300/t. However, a major decrease of INR 300/t was seen in the Ramgarh market, and prices in the Raipur and Hindupur regions slid by INR 150/t and INR 200/t, respectively. Similarly, sponge iron prices also increased in most key locations by INR 100-300/t, with a major increase of INR 300/t seen in the Raigarh market. In contrast, prices in the Bellary and Hyderabad regions declined by INR 150/t and INR 200/t, respectively.
  
  
• NMDC's steel plant in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, conducted a steel-grade pig iron auction for 15,000 t on 28 August. The entire quantity received bids at an average price of INR 35,000/t. However, management approval is still pending. In the previous approved auction, held on 20 August, the entire quantity of 35,000 t was booked at an average price of INR 35,100/t.
  
  
• SAIL-Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) conducted an auction on 27 August, offering 2,000 t of steel-grade pig iron. The entire quantity was sold at an average price of INR 35,200/t exw. Earlier, on 21 August, RSP auctioned 1,500 t of steel-grade pig iron, which were fully booked at an average price of INR 35,200/t exw.
  
  
• Indian direct reduced iron (DRI) export offers remained stable for CPT-Raxaul, reaching $346/t, while CPT-Benapole offers increased by $4 and stood at $365/t.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF-rebar: India's IF route finished long steel market remained range-bound w-o-w, as it exhibited slight variations in prices across regions. Sellers tried to maintain current offer levels, under the impression that prices had bottomed out, and were reluctant to announce any further reductions. However, buyers chose to stay on the sidelines and awaited clarity to avoid unnecessary stocking of material. As per sources, the market is likely to remain volatile in the near term amid anticipation of BF-route mill offers for September as well as because of the current bid-offer disparity in the market.
  
  
• On a w-o-w basis, rebar steel prices showed mixed trends in the range of INR 100-400/t across most regions; few markets remained stable, BigMint's assessment shows.
  
  
• The trade reference prices of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size were assessed at INR 41,300-41,700/t exw-Raipur and INR 44,300-44,900/t exw-Jalna.
  
  
• The trade reference prices of heavy structural steel for the base size 150 mm channel stood at INR 44,200-44,700/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
• The trade reference prices of wire rods hovered at INR 42,000-42,500/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
• BF-rebar: India's leading tier-1 mills increased list prices of rebars by INR 750-1,000/t during the week. Presently, list prices hover at around INR 50,000-51,000/t on a landed basis. Following the price hike, trade-level rebar prices witnessed a rise on a weekly basis across major markets. Meanwhile, buying activities remained weak in the traders' market. Currently, rebar prices (12-32 mm) in the trade segment have risen by INR 700/t w-o-w to INR 50,300/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the projects segment, prices hovered in the range of INR 48,000-49,000/t on a landed Mumbai basis.
  
  

Finished flat steel

• BigMint's bi-weekly benchmark evaluation for hot-rolled coil (HRC) (2.5-8 mm, IS2062, Gr E250 Br) ex-Mumbai fell by INR 300/t to INR 50,300/t. Additionally, cold-rolled coil (CRC) (0.9 mm, IS513 CR1) ex-Mumbai fell by INR 100/t to INR 57,300/t. All prices exclude 18% GST.
  
  
• The market was characterised by surplus inventory and a hesitant stance among buyers, resulting in limited trading activity. The upcoming mill price list announcement has led to a wait-and-watch attitude among market participants.
  
  
• As evidenced by BigMint's vessel line-up data, cumulative import volume reached 4,84,902 t till 26 August. It was 6,36,651 t as of July 2024, with an additional 1,92,477 t expected to arrive by the end of August and another 3,18,572 t in the first half of September.
  
  
• Amid a deteriorating global market, Indian steel mills continued to withhold HRC export offers to Southeast Asia and the Middle East. While HRC offers to Europe remained unchanged w-o-w, no firm deals were concluded, with EU buyers exercising caution and market participants still returning from summer vacations.