Weekly round-up: Semi-finished steel prices fluctuate, flats remain rangebound

The domestic steel market saw a positive trend in prices during week 20 ( 13 May- 18 May, 2024), as semi-finished steel prices edged up by INR 100-500/tonne (t).Domestic induction furnace finished long steel offers followed mixed trends.

Iron ore and pellet

• Iron ore and pellet BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, inch down by INR 50/t w-o-w at INR 10,300/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 17 May. Around 40,000 deals of pellets (Fe62.5-66%) were recorded in the Raipur region in the last one week. The buyers in Raipur are getting deals concluded from the nearer cities and Odisha region recently as they preferred to book outside region material to get decent steel margin in the last couple of days.
  
  
• A vessel comprising of 55,000 t pellets has been booked by a western India-based steel mill at INR 10,200-10,500/t DAP Kandla. Cost competitiveness and increased prices in the local market led the buyer book material from eastern India.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index fell w-o-w by $65/tonne (t) FOB east coast on 16 May 2024. The Indian sea market remained muted this week following no active deal was recorded this week so far. Indian market participants were reluctant to book material at the current offers as they were expecting the market to improve in the coming days.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) inched down w-o-w by around $2.5/tonne (t) to $103.5/t on 15 May, 2024. The export market remained sluggish in the last one week following sluggish buying interest post-Labour day holidays. Meanwhile, no deal was concluded from India amid offer and bid disparity. Pellet manufacturers are getting better realisation in the domestic market against exports.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 t) freight rates for an iron ore vessel from the east coast of India to China fell by $0.2/t w-o-w this week to $15.3/t on 15 May, as per BigMint's assessment. Dry bulk iron ore freight rates have followed downtrend in key routes this week. In addition, fall in bunker prices have weighed on freight rates. BigMint noted that weak buying interest have pulled off enquiries, as rise in raw material prices have resulted in profitability of steel mills.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal prices fell w-o-w to $234/t FOB and $252/ t CNF on 17 May'24 amid oversupply of material and tepid demand from major importers.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade prices dropped by $1/t w-o-w to $106/t FOB. However, RB3 remained stable w-o-w at $82/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port recorded at INR 8,400/t, stable w-o-w.
  
  

Ferro Scrap

• In India, the demand for imported scrap remained moderate as buyers engaged in need-based purchasing due to domestic market volatility. This volatility stemmed from slow finished steel sales and ample stockpiles booked in the previous month. Notably, compared to other South Asian markets like Pakistan and Bangladesh, Indian buyers remained relatively active.
  
  
• On a weekly average basis, shredded scrap offers from the US and Europe remained largely stable at around $424-427/t CFR Nhava Sheva. Meanwhile, HMS (80:20) offers from Europe were assessed as unchanged at $405/t CFR.
  
  

Ferro Alloys

• Silico Manganese:Silico manganese prices in India fell by INR 5,600/t ($67/t) to INR 86,700-89,300/t ($1,041-1,072/t) exw across major markets of Raipur, Durgapur, and Vizag. This surprising downtrend was noticed because of need-based buying in both domestic and export markets.
  
  
• Ferro manganese:Ferro manganese (HC70%) prices diminished by INR 5,400/t ($65/t) in Raipur, reaching INR 91,000/t ($1,092/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur prices also declined and stayed at INR 92,100/t ($1,106/t). Prices shrank as there was unacceptance of higher offers and a lot of panic buying happened that resulted in declined prices.
  
  
• Ferro Silicon:Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices declined by INR 1,600/t ($19/t), settling at INR 100,400/t ($1,205/t) exw-Guwahati on 17 May, down by INR 1,200/t ($14/t). Meanwhile, Bhutan prices were also down by INR 2,000/t ($24/t), reaching INR 99,400/t ($1,193/t) exw. Prices fell as there was some uncertainty regarding demand, especially in Bhutan.
  
  
• Ferro Chrome:Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) inched down by INR 400/t ($5/t) on 17 May, settling at INR 106,500/t ($1,279/t) exw-Jajpur Prices fell as lower bids were fetched in Vedanta-FACOR's auction which paved the way for market offers.
  
  

Semi Finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed mixed trends as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in some key locations decreased by INR 50-1,100/t across regions, with a major decrease of INR 1,100/t seen in the Goa market. However, billet prices in Raipur, Durgapur, Ahmedabad, Mumbai and Hyderabad rose by INR 100-500/t, with a major increase of INR 500/t seen in the Hyderabad market. Similarly, sponge iron prices also showed mixed trends with prices decreasing in some key locations by INR 50-550/t, with a major decrease of INR 550/t seen in the Ramgarh market. However, sponge iron prices in the Raipur and Jharsuguda markets rose slightly by INR 50-150/t, with a major increase of INR 150/t seen in the Raipur market.
  
  
• SAIL-Bhilai Steel Plant (BSP) held an auction for 4,950 t of steel-grade pig iron on 17 May'24. According to sources, the entire quantity was booked at an average price of INR 42,100/t exw.
  
  
• SAIL-Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) held an auction for 6,000 t of steel-grade pig iron on 11 May'24. 3,350 t quantity was booked at an average price of INR 42,500/t exw.
  
  
• Indian DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) export offers decreased by approximately $3-10/t, reaching $409/t on CPT Raxaul, and $405/t on CPT Benapole.
  
  

Finished long Steel

• If-rebar:India's induction furnace route finished long steel witnessed slight variation in prices w-o-w. The buyers booked material in average quantities and avoided bulk bookings taking into account the ongoing scenario. Suppliers were offering discounts considering payment terms and quantity to boost sales. However, buyers remained cautious and awaited for further clarity on the market direction. As per the participants, such fluctuations in prices may continue in the near-term owing to a similar trend in sponge iron and steel billet.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, in rebar steel prices decreased in the range of INR 200-800/t across the regions, while in few markets like Raigarh and Raipur witnessed an increase in the prices of INR 200/t and 600/t respectively as per BigMint assessment shows.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 47,600-48,000/t exw Raipur, INR 52,100-52,700/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 50,000-50,400/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rod hovering at INR 47,800-48,300/t ex Raipur.
  
  

• BF-rebar: Trade-level BF rebar prices showed mixed trends across markets amid slow buying activities, shortages of sizes in the trade channel. Prices are hovering at nearly 1-year high levels now as similar price levels were last seen in end-April 2023. Prices have increased owing to limited availability of material across sizes due to maintenance shutdown by mills, which has created shortage in the market.
  
  
• Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm, Fe500D) in the trade segment dipped marginally by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 58,700/t exy-Mumbai. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
  
  
• In the projects segment, prices were hovering around INR 57,500-58,000/t FOR Mumbai.
  
  

Finished flat steel

• In recent observations, prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) and cold-rolled coils (CRC) have shown divergent trends. HRC prices have decreased by up to INR 600/t ($7/t) while CRC prices have increased by up to INR 600/t ($7/t) in most of the markets. This fluctuation is happening amidst subdued trading activity due to challenges in demand and supply dynamics. Market participants are facing weak demand and buyers are prioritizing price negotiations and smaller purchases.
  
  
• BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E-250 Br.) prices decreased by INR 600/t ($7/t) to INR 53,900/t ($645/t) on 14 May 2024, compared to the previous week. Also, CRC (0.90mm, IS 513, CR1) prices were down by INR 300/t ($4/t) to INR 61,000/t ($730/t) during the same period. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries. (INR 1 = USD 0.0119725 ; USD 1 = INR 83.5262)
  
  
• According to vessel line-up data tracked by BigMint, India's exports of bulk hot-rolled coils (HRC) and plates reached 1,09,464 t by May 13, 2024. In comparison, imports of bulk HRC and plates stood at 97,160 t during the same period.
  
  
• Export offers of Indian-origin HRC have been put on hold for the fourth consecutive week, with mills focusing on the domestic market due to better realizations. Additionally, sluggish market demand in the EU has contributed to subdued trade activities in that region.