Weekly Round-Up: Semi-Finished Steel Prices Fall as Overall Demand Declines.

The domestic steel market saw negative trend in prices during week 46 ( 11-16 Nov, 2024). Semi-finished steel prices dropped in the range of INR 500-1,200/tonne (t).

Iron ore and pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, fell by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 9,850/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 15 November. Around 47,000 t pellet (Fe62.5-65.5%) deals were recorded in the Raipur region this week. Pellet offers remained stable in Raipur at INR 9,800-9,900/t by the local producers. Fall in sponge prices and limited bids fo pellets kept prices under pressure.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index decreased by $6/tonne (t) w-o-w to $59/t FOB east coast, India, on 14 November. Fall in spot iron ore fines prices in China resulted in decline in export prices from India.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB East Coast) fell by $6/t w-o-w to $92.5/t on 15 November. No export deal was concluded in this publishing window. Chinese mills are seeking price-competitive alternatives from the Middle East and CIS regions. Chinese mills are also exploring medium-grade fines with higher alumina and silica content to reduce import costs in light of their struggling domestic market.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk freights (50,000-55,000 tonnes) for iron ore shipments from the east coast of India to China inched up marginally w-o-w to $12.5/t on 13 November.. lacklustre activities were heard in the Indian Ocean due to lack of demand and availability of vessels in the portside, which prevented a sharp hike in freight rates in the India-China route.
  
  

Coal

• Australian coking coal prices edged down by $1/t on a weekly basis at $206/t FOB Australia. Buyers are mostly side-lined awaiting price clarity.
  
  
• RB2 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices edged up w-o-w at $91/t FOB. RB3 prices remained unchanged at $70/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port stable w-o-w at INR 7,700/t.
  
  

Ferro Scrap

• India's imported scrap market remained moderate throughout the week as weak domestic steel demand and high inventory levels curbed buying interest. Shredded scrap offers from the US and UK/Europe lingered at $390-400/t CFR, with buyers resisting higher rates and focusing on the lower end. HMS (80:20) was quoted at $365-380/t CFR depending upon region, but demand remained subdued.
  
  
• Domestic price declines and production cuts by mills further dampened sentiment, while traders noted minimal bulk bookings. External pressure from Turkish scrap price corrections and reduced Asian buying activity weighed heavily on market dynamics. Buyers remained cautious, prioritising domestic scrap over imports amid sluggish steel sales and uncertainty about future trends.
  
  
• Approximately 13,000-14,000 t of scrap were booked during the week, including shredded, HMS (80:20), LMS, PNS, and HMS & PNS mix, sourced from West Africa, the US, Peru, Bahrain, UK/EU, Latin America, and Yemen, with shredded scrap accounting for 3,000-4,000 t.
  
  
• Additionally, an unverified bulk deal from Japan for 10,000 t-CR Busheling scrap was heard destined for Chennai, expected to arrive in December.
  
  

Ferro Alloys

• Silico Manganese:Post a recent drop, domestic silico-manganese prices have steadied, mirroring changes in steel prices. With prices approaching their lowest in two months, similar to late September 2024, weak trading and surplus inventory have prompted regional production cuts. Notably, prices of the 60-14 grade trimmed by INR 500/t ($6t) w-o-w to INR 65,400-66,000/t ($774-781/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam.
  
  
• Ferro manganese:Indian ferro manganese (HC70%) prices inched down by around INR 500/t ($6/t) w-o-w to INR 67,000/t ($793/t) exw in Raipur and Durgapur. Due to sluggish market demand and pushback against higher pricing, sellers were forced to lower quotes, resulting in a decline in overall prices and market activity.
  
  
• Ferro Silicon:Indian ferro silicon (FeSi: 70%) prices edged down by around INR 1,200/t ($14/t) w-o-w to INR 108,500/t ($1,284/t) exw-Guwahati on 15 November. However, prices in Bhutan remained anchored at INR 110,000/t ($1,302/t) exw. Post Bhutan's price announcements prices remained firm at Bhutan but at Guwahati acceptance towards higher offers were not seen due to which prices inched down.
  
  
• Ferro chrome:Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) fell by INR 1,200/t ($14/t) w-o-w to INR 108,700/t ($1,287/t) exw-Jajpur on 15 November Prices declined, as bid-offer disparities plagued the market. Lower bids at the latest Vedanta-FACOR auction also contributed to the price drop.Additionally, China's Taiyuan Iron and Steel Corporation (TISCO) has brought down its Dec'24 ferro chrome tender prices by RMB 300/t ($42/t) m-o-m to RMB 7,645/t ($1,058/t) DAP, including taxes.
  
  

Semi Finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed downward movement as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations decreased INR 500-1,200/t across regions, with a major increase of INR 1,200/t seen in the Ramgarh market. Similarly, sponge iron prices also showed downtrend, almost all key locations decreased INR 700-1,500/t, with a major decrease of INR 1,500/t seen in the Jharsugda market.
  
  
• NMDC's steel plant in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, conducted a steel-grade pig iron auction for a total of 30,000 t on 12 Nov'24. However, no bids were received due to weak finished steel demand and low viability.
  
  
• Indian DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) export offers increased by $7 for CPT Raxaul, reaching $371/t while, CPT Benapole offers increased by $17 reaching at $379/t.
  
  

Finished Long Steel

• IF-rebar:India's induction furnace route finished long steel prices moved in a downward direction in almost all the regions w-o-w. Such trend was observed as as result of lack of buying interest at higher offers amid uncertainty in market trend. This compelled suppliers to lower prices as well as offer attractive discounts to liquidate material. However, buyers remained cautious and avoided any bulk bookings at the moment. Competitive pricing amid surplus availability of material is also playing a key factor in declining price trend. Further, mills are keeping their production levels in check across some regions to control inventory levels. As per the participants, similar trend may continue in the near-term.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, in rebar steel prices decreased in the range of INR 200-1,600/t across the regions as per BigMint assessment shows.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 42,000-42,500/t exw Raipur, INR 46,200-46,800/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 45,000-45,500/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rod hovering at INR 42,500-43,000/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF-rebar:Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices witnessed marginal drop on weekly basis amid slow buying activities in the domestic market. Meanwhile, limited supplies from a leading state-owned steel mill due to maintenance shutdown at one of its plants, have kept prices supported in some of the markets.
  
  
• Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm) in the trade segment edged down by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 54,800/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices remained stable w-o-w, hovering around INR 54,000-55,000/t FOR Mumbai. Demand from projects segment was steady this week.
  
  

Flat Steel

• Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have decreased by up to INR 500 per tonne (t) ($6/t) this week, now ranging between INR 48,000 and 50,300/t ($569-596/t), due to subdued market activity and limited demand. Similarly, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices have declined by up to INR 700/t ($8/t), with current prices ranging from INR 55,700 to 58,400/t ($660-692/t) across different regions.
  
  
• According to BigMint's vessel line-up data, cumulative steel imports stood at 130,519 t as of 11 November 2024, compared to 687,297 t in October and 776,835 t in September. An additional 231,803 t are anticipated by the end of November.
  
  
• Indian steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports remained subdued this week, reflecting weaker market sentiment. While offers to the Middle East continued, they faced growing competition from other regions.
  
  
• In European markets, a similar trend was observed, with stable offers but slow demand. Market participants have adopted a cautious stance, awaiting further developments before making decisions.