Weekly round-Up: Semi-finished steel prices drop as demand softens after festive break

Domestic induction furnace-finished long steel prices declined last week, while primary mills saw increased demand post-monsoon as projects commenced, indicating shifting market conditions and requirements.

Iron ore and pellet

• OMC conducted an auction for the 1.98 mnt of iron ore on 18 October in which the entire quantity of fines (1.06 mnt) while 0.78 mnt lumps (0.918 mnt offered quantity) was sold at INR 3,150-5,800/t/t and INR 5,200-7,700/t/t respectively. Bids (weighted average) for the fine and lumps increased by around INR 1,250/t and INR 1,450/t against last month. The base prices for both fines and lumps have increased by INR 850-1,800/t m-o-m. This hike follows rising iron ore and pellet prices, coupled with a reduction in dispatches from Odisha
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, inched down by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 10,000/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 18 October. Pellet trading slowed this week, as major producers kept their sales closed due to the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auction. Market participants adopted a wait-and-watch approach, anticipating possible shifts in prices based on auction outcomes.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index dropped by $3.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $60/t FOB east coast on 17 October, with no deals reported in this period. The discount level remained similar to last week's at 20-23% on the global fines index. India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) declined by $7.5/t w-o-w to $94/t on 18 October.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk freight rates (50,000-55,000 t) for iron ore shipments from the east coast of India to China decreased by $0.25/tonne (t) w-o-w to $13/t as of 16 October. Dry bulk iron ore freights were lower this week amid weak demand from China. Limited inquiries were recorded this week as market participants are shifting attention to the impact of the stimulus measures, which is leading to lower demand amid the continuing property crisis and low domestic demand for steel
  
  

Coal

• Australian coking coal prices fell on a weekly basis by 2% at $202/t FOB Australia.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices remained largely stable w-o-w at $102/t FOB. RB3 prices edged down at $70/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port remained unchanged at INR 7,600/t.
  
  

Ferro scrap

• India's imported scrap market was quiet this week as buyers remained cautious amid weak global signals and local market volatility. Following the holiday period, demand stayed low, with shredded scrap offers from the US and UK/Europe at $400-410/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while buyers aimed for $390-395/t. HMS (80:20) offers stood at $375-380/t, but buyers sought even lower levels.
  
  
• A growing bid-offer gap persisted as mills opted to rely more on domestic scrap due to favourable pricing. Sentiment weakened further as falling Turkish and Chinese market uncertainties deepened, with limited transactions and bulk purchases reported at discounted rates. Overall, buyers held back, awaiting clearer trends.
  
  
• Notably, about 5,000-6,000 t of mixed scrap were booked this week, including approximately 3,500 t of shredded scrap from the US at $400-401/t CFR, with the remaining HMS (80:20) and HMS1 secured at around $380-390/t CFR.
  
  

Ferro Alloys

• Silico manganese: Silico manganese (60-14) prices fell by INR 1,050/t ($12t) w-o-w to INR 68,200-68,800/t ($811-818/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam. Indian silico manganese prices remained stable with a slight dip, as domestic steel prices slowed. Minimal trades occurred, with manufacturers cutting production to manage rising input costs and excess supply.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: Indian ferro manganese (HC70%) prices were largely stable, inching down by around INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 71,000/t ($845/t) exw in Raipur and by INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 71,100/t ($846/t) in Durgapur. The market remained unresponsive to higher quotes, with the steel sector witnessing a slowdown. The ferro manganese market also dipped slightly.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices increased w-o-w to INR 108,600/t ($1,292/t) exw-Guwahati on 18 October, an increase of around INR 1,900/t ($23/t) w-o-w. While, prices in Bhutan remained unchanged INR 7,000/t ($84/t), standing at INR 108,000/t ($1,285/t) exw. Prices rose as the market slowly adapted to higher offers from sellers, reflecting changing dynamics in supply and demand. Additionally, ferro silicon plants in Byrnihat resumed operations after a 40-day suspension due to pollution control violations.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) remained largely stable with prices at INR 110,400/t ($1,313/t) exw-Jajpur on 18 October, inching down by INR 300/t ($4/t) w-o-w. Prices remained stable as market sentiment stayed consistent, with routine trading continuing without significant fluctuations or changes in demand. At OMC's chrome ore auction on 18 October, 23,500 t out of the 33,500 t offered quantity were sold. Bids increased by 1-11% (INR 192-2,883) from the previous month and surged 9-64% (INR 1,800-15,200) above the base price.
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed a downtrend, as per BigMint's assessment. Billet prices in almost all key locations decreased by INR 200-1,000/t. However, sponge iron prices showed a mixed trend, with almost all key locations witnessing a decrease of INR 150-800/t.
  
  
• NMDC's steel plant in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, conducted a steel-grade pig iron auction for 32,000 t on 17 October. Out of 32,000 t, 25,000 t were booked at an average price of INR 36,000/t. However, management approval is still pending. In the previous approved auction, held on 26 September, the entire quantity was booked at an average price of INR 34,700/t
  
  
• SAIL-Bokaro Steel Plant (BSL) held an auction for 14,000 t of steel-grade pig iron on 16 October. The total volume was booked at an average price of INR 37,075/t exw. In the previous auction on 20 September, the entire 14,500 t of steel-grade pig iron on offer was sold at an average price of INR 34,950/t exw.
  
  
• Indian DRI (direct reduced iron) export offers decreased by $4/t for CPT Raxaul, reaching $384/t while, CPT Benapole offers remained stable at $397/t.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF-rebar: India's induction furnace route finished long steel prices edged down across regions, although prices remained stable in a few markets. This trend was seen due to limited buying interest in the concerned segment. Suppliers were forced to lower offers amid bid-offer disparity to boost sales. However, buyers still chose to stay on the sidelines until they getting further clarity on market movements. Prices are likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Since another round of hike in prices was announced by the primary mills this week owing to rising raw material prices, rebar prices may remain supported at current levels.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, rebar prices plunged in the range of INR 100-1,300/t across regions, as per BigMint assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 43,800-44,200/t exw Raipur, and at INR 48,600-49,200/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 46,800-47,300/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rods are hovering at INR 44,200-44,800/t ex Raipur.

  
  
  

• BF-rebar: Indian primary mills increased rebar list prices by INR 1,000/t during the week. Post revision, list prices hovered in the range of INR 54,000-55,000/t on landed basis. Following the price hike, trade-level prices rose across major markets. The price hike was triggered by reduced inventories at mills, which caused shortages in certain material sizes within the trade channel. Meanwhile, buying activity remained slow in the trade channel. Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm) in the trade segment rose by INR 900/t w-o-w to INR 54,500/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 53,000-54,000/t FOR Mumbai.
  
  
• Flat Steel

  Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CR) prices have experienced a degree of stability. Consequently, the current price range for HRC stands at INR 48,500-51,500/t and INR 55,900-58,500/t across markets. The overall trade market showed a degree of stability with limited trades and credit crunch.
  
  

• BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8mm) and CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9mm registered a marginal decline of INR100/t at INR 48,500/t and INR 55,800/t. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries.
  
  
• After the Navratri and Dusshera holidays, the trade market winessed a temporary lull in demand. Prices have stabilised, halting the recent upward trend, as significant festive season purchases and restocking activities have largely concluded.
  
  
• As per BigMint data, cumulative import volumes, based on vessel lineup data, reached 3,94,008t till 14 October 2024. It was 7,76,835t in September and 6,27,426t in August. However, an additional 1,65,105t is expected by end of October. A deal was heard concluded from Korea for 25,000 t HRC at 530/t CFR, Chennai for November deliveries.
  
  
• Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to the Middle East and Europe have seen mixed trends this week. Prices to the Middle East have increased sharply by $35/t to $565-575/t CFR UAE. Conversely, prices to Europe have declined slightly. In the Chinese market, HRC export offers to the Middle East have decreased by $15/t to $550-560/t CFR UAE. Offers to Vietnam have resumed after a holiday break at $560-570/t CFR HCMC.