Weekly round-up: Semi-finished steel prices drop amid overall demand downtrend

The domestic steel market saw mixed trends in prices during week 37 ( 9-14 September, 2024). Semi-finished steel prices declined in the range of INR 300-1,100/tonne (t).

Iron ore and pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, remained stable w-o-w at INR 8,650/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 13 September. This week, around 39,000 pellet (Fe62.5-63%) deals were recorded in the Raipur region. Raipur-based pellet makers have kept their pellet offers for Fe 63%(+/_0.5%) stable at INR 8,600/t ($102/t) exw-Raipur.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $2.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $53.5/t FOB east coast on 12 September. A trader from Odisha concluded a fines (Fe57%) export deal for a 55,000-t vessel at $64/t CFR China a few days back. BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) increased by $1.5/t w-o-w to $85/tonne (t) on 13 September and no pellet export deal was recorded in the last one week amid lack of buying interest.
  
  
• National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC), Karnataka, announced list prices of iron ore on 13 September from its Donimalai mines. Revised prices of fines (-10 mm, Fe 59%) and lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 59%) remained unchanged at INR 3,300/t ($39/t) and INR 3,809/t ($45/t), respectively. Prices include royalty, DMF and NMET.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 tonnes (t)) freight rates for iron ore vessels from the east coast of India to China declined by $0.6/t w-o-w, reaching $12.2/t as of 11 September.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal has been dropped by $4/t to $181/t FOB. Coking coal prices continued to drop on weak steel sentiments.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices fell by $2/t for the week to $101/t FOB. RB3 prices edged down to $70/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port remained unchanged at INR 7,600/t.
  
  

Ferro scrap

• The imported scrap market in India had been subdued, with buyers showing little interest due to the availability of cheaper domestic alternatives. Imported shredded scrap had been priced between $385-390/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while HMS (80:20) ranged from $365-370/t CFR.
  
  
• Weak steel demand and falling prices had led mills to delay purchases and prioritise local scrap. Traders faced narrow margins, often selling at a loss. Many mills were also burdened with high inventories and sluggish sales of finished steel, further dampening market activity. As a result, Indian buyers continued to prefer domestic scrap due to its cost advantage and the uncertain outlook on imports.
  
  
• During the week, around 2,500 t of scrap were booked, including 2,000 t of shredded scrap from the UK at $398/t CFR and around 500 t of HMS (80:20) scraps from West Africa at $360-365/t CFR.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese prices declined w-o-w by around INR 1,000/t ($12/t) to INR 65,800-66,000/t ($783-786/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam. Indian domestic silico manganese prices have continued their downtrend, reaching a five-month low amid panic selling and falling offers. This w-o-w decline highlighted the ongoing challenges in the market.
  
  
• India's ferro manganese (HC70%) prices in Raipur diminished by around INR 2,000/t ($24/t) w-o-w to INR 71,000/t ($845/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur, prices also declined by around INR 2,200/t ($26/t) w-o-w to INR 70,800/t ($843/t). The continued subdued demand has weighed on domestic ferro manganese prices.
  
  
• Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices inched up by around INR 500/t ($6/t) w-o-w to settle at INR 88,400/t ($1,053/t) exw-Guwahati on 13 September. Meanwhile, prices in Bhutan inched up by INR 1,000/t ($12/t) w-o-w, reaching INR 89,000/t ($1,060/t) exw. Prices increased as producers in the Northeast raised their offers to match Bhutan's ones, which were initially announced at INR 88,000/t ($1,048/t) for the month.
  
  
• Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) remained largely stable, with a marginal hike of INR 400/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 107,000/t ($1,275/t) exw-Jajpur on 13 September. Prices witnessed stability, as there was resistance from buyers towards extreme higher offers.
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed downward trend as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations decreased by INR 300-1,100/t across regions, with a major decrease of INR 1,100/t seen in the Rourkela market. Similarly, sponge iron prices also decreased in almost all key locations by INR 150-350/t, with a major decrease of INR 350/t seen in the Bellary market, while Jharsugda showed an increase of INR 200/t.
  
  
• Indian DRI export offers increased by $2/t for CPT Raxaul, reaching $347/t while, CPT Benapole offers increased by $4/t to $365/t.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF-rebar: India's induction furnace route finished long steel witnessed a downward trend w-o-w. Trading activity was limited, with buyers opting for need-based purchases. While sellers tried to maintain their offers, they provided internal trade discounts depending on order size and payment terms. However, buyers stayed cautious, avoiding bulk purchases and sticking to need-based intake due to unclear market trend. As per participants, similar trends might continue in the near-term.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, rebar prices declined in the range of INR 100-1,200/t across regions as per BigMint's assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference prices of Fe 500 grade rebar, 10-25 mm size, manufactured via the IF route was assessed at INR 40,500-40,900/t exw Raipur, and at INR 44,300-44,900/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of heavy structural steel of base size 150mm channel stood at INR 43,400-43,800/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rods were hovering at INR 40,700-41,200/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF-rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices remained range-bound w-o-w across major markets amid slow buying activities. Meanwhile, prices witnessed a slight increase across some of the markets amid limited availability as supplies from one of the leading state-owned steel mills have been affected by the operation of only one blast furnace due to shortage of funds and raw materials like coking coal.
  
  
• Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm) in the trade segment remained stable w-o-w at INR 50,600/t exy-Mumbai. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 49,000-50,000/t FOR Mumbai. Buying interest was limited amid need-based.
  
  

Finished flat steel

• Hot-rolled steel coil (HRC) prices fell by INR 100-500/t ($1-6/t) to INR48,200-51,000/t. Cold-rolled (CR) coil prices exhibited a degree of stability, maintaining a range of INR 56,700-61,500/t across markets even as participants are waiting for clarity on potential duties to be levied on steel imports.
  
  
• The trade market is experiencing a severe decline, primarily driven by a near-total absence of demand. Industry reports indicate that distributors are adopting a cautious approach, avoiding new material purchases and concentrating on reducing their existing inventory.
  
  
• Big Mint's assessment of cumulative import volumes, based on vessel line-up data, stood at 288,156 t till 9 September. Imports in August stood at 627,426 t in August. However, an additional 385,509 t are anticipated to arrive in September.

  Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) export offers to Europe have experienced a decline of $5-10/t w-o-w, reflecting a broader weakening of the global market sentiment. Furthermore, reduced demand in key sectors like automotive and construction, coupled with ongoing anti-dumping and safeguard measures, have contributed to a further deterioration in market conditions. In contrast, Indian steel mills have maintained stable HRC offers for Southeast Asia and Middle East.