Weekly round-up: Semi-finished, rebar prices decline amid mixed sentiments

The domestic induction furnace (IF)-route steel market saw a negative price trend in the week 9 ( 26 February- 2 March, 2024). Semi-finished steel prices came down by INR 100-500/tonne (t). The trade reference prices for hot rolled coil (HRC) and cold rolled coils (CRC) declined this week in the major markets.

Iron ore and pellets

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, remained stable w-o-w at INR 9,300/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 1 March 2024. Total deals of 45,000 t were recorded at INR 9,250-9,650/t DAP Raipur from the Raipur region in the last one week. The Raipur pellet market saw active bookings this week as buyers conducted bookings based on needs.
  
  
• NMDC sold the entire quantity from the Bacheli block on 27 February. 16,800 t of iron ore DRCLO (10-40 mm, Fe 67%) were sold at a 6% premium over the base price (INR 7,280/t), 4,200 t of ROM (10-150 mm, Fe 65.5%) at base prices (INR 5,970/t)and 67,200 t of iron ore fines (Fe 64%) were sold at base prices (INR 5,350/t). While NMDC offered 33,600 t of ROM (10-150mm, Fe 65.5%) out of which 13,400 t were sold at the base price. Prices were declared on FOR ex-stockpile/mines basis, including royalty, DMF, and NMET.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index decreased by $7/t w-o-w at $74/t FOB east coast on 29 February 2024. A deal of 55,000 t of iron ore fines (Fe57%) was concluded at $93/t CFR China in the early days of the week but yet to be confirmed the discount given by the seller, hence was not considered in index computation.
  
  
• Domestic low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices witnessed a drop this week in Karnataka's Bellary. BigMint's weekly index for low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) stood at INR 3,400/t ($41/t) ex-mines Bellary, a w-o-w fall of INR 200/t ($2/t). Notably, prices are hovering at over four-months low as the same levels were reported in October, 2023.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 t) freight rates for an iron ore vessel from the east coast of India to China were recorded firm w-o-w at $15/tonne (t) on 28 February, 2024, according to BigMint's assessment. Dry bulk iron ore freight rates stayed supported this week. Notably, movement of ships has been sluggish as Chinese buyers have slowed down construction activities due to unfavourable weather conditions. Notably, the high iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have also weighed on bookings.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal prices remained unchanged w-o-w to $314/t FOB and $331/ t CNF on 2 March, 2024 amid low trading activities.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade prices rose by 7% w-o-w to $98/t FOB. Similarly, RB3 rose by 5% w-o-w at $66/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port were recorded at INR 7,300/t, stable w-o-w.
  
  

Ferrous scrap

• At the outset of the week, the imported scrap market in India experienced a slight improvement, with buyers displaying revived interest in procuring scraps from non-European sources. However, this trend waned as the Turkish market began to decline. Given Turkiye's prominent position as a scrap importer, other markets closely monitor its fluctuations. Furthermore, according to insights gathered by BigMint from industry insiders, downstream demand remains subdued, prompting steel mills to reduce production by 15-20% across various regions and they also withheld inventories until March. Consequently, buying interest remained limited.
  
  
• On a weekly average basis, shredded scrap offers from Europe were evaluated at $415/t CFR, a decrease of $1/t compared to the preceding week's $416/t. Offers for HMS (80:20) remained steady at $391/t CFR.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: Indian silico manganese prices dropped by INR 800/t ($10/t) as the export demand declined and unacceptance of higher quotes waned in the market. On 1 March, silico manganese (60-14) was trading at around INR 66,900-67,300/t ($807-$812/t) exw Durgapur, Raipur, and Vizag.
  
  

• Ferro manganese:Ferro manganese (HC70%) prices were stable with a minor decline by INR 50/t ($1/t) as the overseas demand diminished. Ferro manganese prices in Raipur and Durgapur on 1 March varied between INR 67,800 and INR 67,850/t ($818-$819/t), a minor decrease of INR 50/t ($1/t).
  
  
• Ferro silicon:Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices fell by INR 1,875/t ($23/t) ex-Guwahati and Bhutan. Market is awaiting Bhutan's prices announcements, and market players anticipated prices to go down further. As of 1 March, BigMint reported ferro silicon prices in India at INR 104,600/t ($1,262/t), down INR 1,700/t ($21/t) exw-Guwahati and INR 104,800/t ($1,264/t) exw-Bhutan, decreased by INR 2,050/t ($25/t).
  
  
• Ferro chrome:On 1 March, Indian ferro chrome (HC 60%, Si:4%) prices rose by INR 700/t ($8/t), reaching INR 121,700/t ($1,468/t) exw-Jajpur. Prices witnessed an uptick despite market participants opted to wait and see and made only need-based purchases post-OMC's chrome ore auction. Meanwhile, stainless steel prices saw a slight increase of INR 2,000/t w-o-w ($24/t) and were at INR 176,000/t ($2,123/t) exw-Mumbai.
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices decreased as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations decreased by INR 100-500/t across regions, with a major decrease of INR 500/t seen in Hyderabad. However, billet prices only in Raipur rose slightly by INR 100/t. Similarly, sponge iron prices also decreased in key locations by INR 100-300/t, with a major decrease of INR 300/t seen in Mandi Gobindgarh market. However, sponge iron prices only in Jharsuguda edged up by INR 100/t.
  
  
• NMDC Nagarnar and SAIL BSP held pig iron auctions on 28 February 2024. NMDC auctioned 60,000 tonnes with bids ranging from INR 34,200 - 34,500/t, while SAIL BSP auctioned 5,980 tonnes with bids ranging from INR 35,800 - 36,100/t. However, due to lower-than-expected bid prices, the auctions were rejected.
  
  
• SAIL-Rourkela Steel Plant held an auction for 3,500 t of steel grade pig iron on 27 February, 2024. Out of the total quantity was booked at an average price of INR 36,850/t exw.
  
  
• Indian DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) exports offers increased by approximately $2/t, reaching $350/t on CPT Raxaul, and $362/t on CPT Benapole.
  
  

Finished-long steel

• Finished long steel (IF Route):India's induction furnace route finished long steel witnessed a mixed trend in terms of price across the regions this week. The trading activities were slow at the start of the week but improved later as buyers booked material in moderate quantities. Since, in most of the locations manufacturers have sufficient booking orders, so they will try to maintain the prices at current level. However, marginal fluctuations may be observed in the market in near term depending upon the price movement in billet as well as new purchase orders.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, in rebar steel prices fluctuated in the range of INR 100-500/t across the regions except in few markets where they were stable as per BigMint assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 42,900-43,300/t exw Raipur, INR 49,000-49,600/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 45,100-45,400/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rod hovering at INR 43,000-43,500/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF: Trade-level prices of blast furnace (BF) rebars remained range-bound on weekly basis amid weak buying activities in the trade channel. Market participants adopted wait-and-watch mode this week awaiting mill's prices for March, which is likely to be announced soon.
  
  
• Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm, Fe500D) in the trade segment remained stable w-o-w at INR 51,600/t exy-Mumbai. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.+
  
  
• In the projects segment, prices were unchanged w-o-w at INR 49,500-50,000/t FOR Mumbai basis amid urgent requirement basis buying.
  
  

Finished flat steel

• BigMint's bi-weekly benchmark assessment revealed a decline of INR 300/t in HRC (IS2062, Grade E250, 2.5-8mm), settling at INR 53,600/t exy-Mumbai. Concurrently, CRC (IS513, Gr-O, 0.9mm) experienced a marginal drop of INR 100/t, reaching INR 61,500/t exy-Mumbai during the same period.
  
  
• However, HRC prices registered a steeper decrease of approximately INR 900/t in Faridabad (INR 52,000-53,000/t) and Kolkata (INR 51,000-52,000/t) amid subdued market sentiments. In contrast, cold-rolled (CR) prices remained stable across markets in the recent assessment. All mentioned prices exclude GST at 18% and are for cut-to-length (CTL) form.

  The market is seeing need-based buying activity due to concerns over surplus materials and liquidity issues.

  The bulk HRC and plates imports volumes reached 4,17,653t till 25 February 2024 (provisional), as per the vessel line-up data tracked by BigMint.
  
  

• The export index for BigMint's India HRC (SAE 1006) to the Middle East and Vietnam decreased slightly to $596/tonne FOB. Export offers to the Middle East were lower at $625-630/t CFR, and offers to Europe also dropped $10-15/t w-o-w due to buyers hesitating to restock. Indian HRC exports to Europe (S275, 3mm) declined by $10-15/t w-o-w, with current offers at $685-690/t CFR Antwerp. This drop in prices was due to weak buyer demand, high inventories, and limited end-user demand.