Weekly round-up: Semi-finished prices up amid low trade volumes, mixed steel market signals

The domestic steel market saw mixed trends in prices during week 47 ( 18 - 23 November, 2024). Semi-finished steel tags increased by INR 100-600/tonne (t) but trade volumes remained low at such price levels.

Iron ore and pellets

• Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) conducted an auction of approximately 2 mnt of iron ore, (0.87 mnt of lumps and 1.15 mnt of fines) on 20 November. Following the positive response from steelmakers, the entire quantity was sold at INR 3,050-7,600/t. However, bids (weighted average) decreased around INR 300/t against last month's auction while remaining largely stable for lumps. The miners reduced lump base prices by INR 950/t m-o-m but kept iron ore fines prices stable.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, fell by INR 600/t w-o-w to INR 9,250/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 22 November. Pellet offers from local producers in Raipur fell by INR 800/t w-o-w to INR 9,000-9,100/t. Fall in the recent OMC auction bids and the recent downtrend in the steel tags kept pellet prices under pressure.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $2/t w-o-w to $61/t FOB east coast, India, on 21 November. This rise can be attributed to positive market trends and some deals that have concluded this week so far. The spot and futures prices of iron ore fines also helped improve the market sentiments.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) rose by $3/t w-o-w to $92.5/t on 22 November. No export deal was concluded in this publishing window. The pellet market remained weak in November as not many export deals were concluded in the Indian waters due to poor demand from overseas markets.
  
  

Coal

• Australian coking coal prices fell on a weekly basis by $2.5/t to $203.5/t FOB Australia. Tags declined as several cargoes remained unsold after being available in the market for several days.
  
  
• RB2 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices edged down w-o-w to $89/t FOB. RB3 prices remained unchanged at $70/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port were stable w-o-w at INR 7,700/t.
  
  

Ferrous scrap

• India's imported scrap market witnessed a week of subdued activity amid persistent weak demand, sluggish steel market conditions, and buyer caution. Throughout the week, shredded scrap offers from the US and UK/Europe remained steady at $385-390/t CFR, while HMS hovered at $360-370/t CFR, with limited buyer interest. Despite sufficient inventories and cautious sentiment, buyers continued to target lower price levels, creating a persistent gap between bids and offers.
  
  
• Global influences, including Turkish price pressures, further dampened market confidence, as Indian buyers hesitated to book material in anticipation of potential price corrections. Suppliers struggled to justify lower prices due to high procurement costs, while buyers adopted a wait-and-watch strategy, holding out for clearer market trends. Overall, the market remained stagnant, with sentiment leaning toward further softening unless a significant recovery in steel demand materializes.
  
  
• During the week, only 2,000-3,000 t of scrap were booked, including HMS 1 and HMS (60:40) sourced from Peru and Costa Rica, priced at $383/t and $345/t, respectively.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: India's domestic silico manganese prices dropped this week as steel mills, facing weak demand, adopted a cautious approach to procurement, impacting overall market sentiment. Notably, prices of the 60-14 grade trimmed by INR 725/t ($9t) w-o-w to INR 64,650-65,300/t ($766-773/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: Indian ferro manganese (HC70%) prices inched down by around INR 300/t ($4/t) w-o-w to INR 66,700/t ($790/t) exw in Raipur and by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 66,500/t ($788/t) exw-Durgapur. Sluggish market demand and resistance to higher prices led sellers to reduce quotes, causing a decline in overall prices and market activity.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi: 70%) prices were largely stable, inching up by around INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 108,900/t ($1,290/t) exw-Guwahati on 22 November. However, prices in Bhutan edged down by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 109,500/t ($1,297/t) exw. Prices were steady, as most sellers were firm in their offers and routine trades were carried out in the market.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si: 4%) prices held steady at INR 108,700/t ($1,287/t) exw-Jajpur after OMC's chrome ore auction on 20 November, where 33,600 t were sold, with bids rising 1-11% (INR 448-2,633/t) m-o-m and 1-67% (INR 200-15,500) above the base price.

  However, uncertainty surrounds ferro chrome prices following Vedanta-FACOR's 22 November auction, where the 10-150 mm lot got sold at INR 106,700/t, marginally above the base price but down INR 2,200/t from 11 November's levels.
  
  

Semi-finished

• IF-rebar:India's induction furnace-route finished long steel prices observed a mixed trend w-o-w. Trading activities were slow in the first half of the week. During the latter half, slight improvement was seen. However, buyers remained cautious before making bulk purchases and stuck to need-based buying. Also, participants informed of limited lifting of previously booked material. Ongoing liquidity issue is further hampering purchasing power of end-consumers. Thus, both project and retail segments are dull at the moment. As per sources, a similar trend is likely to persist in the near-term.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, rebar steel prices varied in the range of INR 100-600/t across regions as per BigMint assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 42,200-42,600/t exw-Raipur, and at INR 46,700-47,300/t exw-Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 44,800-45,300/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rods hovered at INR 42,800-43,300/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF-rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices edged down by up to INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 54,100/t ($641/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint's assessment on 22 November 2024. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%. The price softening was on account of limited domestic demand and cautious buying sentiment.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices remained stable w-o-w, hovering at around INR 53,500-54,500/t ($634-645/t) FOR Mumbai.
  
  

Flat steel

• India's hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell by up to INR 500/t ($6/t) this week to INR 48,000-50,000/t ($569-596/t), amid falling sales. Additionally, cold-rolled coil (CRC) tags fell by up to INR 800/t ($9/t) to maintain a range of INR 55,000-58,500/t ($660-692/t) across various regions.
  
  
• BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm) fell by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 48,100/t ($569/t) on 19 November 2024. Moreover, CRC tags (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm) declined by INR 800/t to INR 55,200/t ($665/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries.
  
  
• India's cumulative import volume, based on BigMint's vessel line-up data, stood at 368,530 t till 18 November 2024. It was at 687,297 t in October and 776,835 t in September. However, an additional 86,235 t are expected by the end of November. These figures reflect a declining trend.
  
  
• Indian HRC exports experienced sluggishness this week, as global market sentiments deteriorated. Indian offers to the Middle East remained relatively stable w-o-w at $560/t CFR but faced intense competition from Chinese suppliers, whose offers were at $520-525/t CFR. A recent trade agreement between China and the Middle East has further intensified the pressure on Indian exports. Additionally, European offers were range-bound w-o-w at $590-595/t, but continued to be impacted by subdued demand.