Weekly round-up: Semi-finished prices struggles with weak demand, falling prices

The domestic steel market saw negative trend in prices during week 41 ( 7-12 Oct, 2024). Semi-finished steel prices dropped in the range of INR 150-1,300/tonne (t).

Iron ore and pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, inched down by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 10,100/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 11 October. This week, around 60,000 pellet (Fe62.5-63.5%) deals were recorded in the Raipur region by both local and Odisha-based pellet producers. Raipur-based pellet makers kept their pellet offers stable for Fe 63%(+/_0.5%) to INR 10,200/t exw-Raipur this week.
  
  
• NMDC conducted an auction for 306,000 t of iron ore on 10 Ocober from its Kumaraswamy mines. Around 134,000 t lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 57.96-64.03%) booked at INR 3,825-5,824/t against base prices of INR 3,825-5,194/t while 152,000 t fines (Fe 54.89-62.62%) booked at INR 3,049-4,847/t against base prices INR 3,049-4,137/t. KSMCL sold around 115,395 t lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 50.04-53.18%) and 30,000 t fines (Fe 52.39%) at the base price of INR 2,058-2,164/t and INR 1,763/t, respectively on 10 October. NMDC prices on ex-mines basis, including royalty while KSMCL excludes.
  
  

Coal

• Australian coking coal prices picked up on a weekly basis by 2% at $207/t FOB Australia.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices remained largely stable w-o-w at $102/t FOB. RB3 prices edged up at $71/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port remained unchanged at INR 7,600/t.
  
  

Ferro Scrap

• This week in India, imported scrap demand slowed as the market observed Navratri and Dussehra festivities. Buyers adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" approach due to concerns over price volatility and the sustainability of recent price hikes. Indicative offers for shredded scrap from the US and UK/Europe were $400-405/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while HMS (80:20) prices were around $380-385/t CFR. The festive mood resulted in minimal trading activity with falling domestic scrap prices further contributing to caution.
  
  
• Some buyers held back due to recent price increases, while others considered bookings to meet pent-up demand ahead of the holidays. As Dussehra approached, business activity was expected to slow and traders anticipated limited downward price adjustments, particularly influenced by trends in Turkiye.
  
  

Ferro Alloys

• Silico Manganese:Silico manganese prices in India remained largely stable w-o-w with slight rise by INR 300/t ($4/t) to INR 69,400-69,700/t ($826-829/t) exw across markets (Raipur, Durgapur and Vishakhapatnam). Prices have increased due to rising steel demand and upcoming festive season, prompting mills to stock up on inventory to meet anticipated needs and ensure sufficient supply for consumers.
  
  
• Ferro Manganese:Ferro manganese (HC70%) prices increased significantly w-o-w by INR 1,000/t ($12/t) in Raipur, reaching INR 71,500/t ($851/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur, prices rose by INR 1,000/t ($12/t) w-o-w to INR 71,200/t ($847/t). Prices increased on elevated demand in the domestic market.
  
  
• Ferro Silicon:Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices surged w-o-w by INR 2,700/t ($32/t) settling at INR 106,700/t ($1,269/t) exw-Guwahati on 11 October. Meanwhile, Bhutan's prices rose by INR 5,500/t ($65/t), reaching INR 102,500/t ($1,219/t) exw. This increase was driven by the ongoing closure of plants in Meghalaya, leading to higher offers from remaining sellers.
  
  
• Ferro Chrome:Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) were largely stable with slight decrease by INR 600/t ($7/t) on 11 October, settling at INR 110,700/t ($1,317/t) exw-Jajpur.Prices were steady, as no major movements were observed in the market and routine spot trades were concluded.
  
  

Semi Finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices witnessed a downward trend as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices fell across the various locations by INR 150-1,300/t, with a significant drop of INR 1,300/t observed in the Mumbai region. Similarly, sponge iron prices also decreased by INR 100-1,300/t nationwide, with a major decline of INR 1,150-1,300/t recorded in the Raigarh and Raipur markets w-o-w.
  
  
• SAIL-Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) conducted an auction of 3,500 t of steel-grade pig iron on 7 October, 2024. The entire quantity was sold at an average price of INR 38,850/t exw.
  
  
• SAIL-BSP held an auction for 8,050 t of steel-grade pig iron on 9 October, 2024. The total quantity was booked at an average price of INR 38,700/t exw.
  
  
• Indian DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) export offers inches up by $2 for CPT Raxaul, reaching $388/t while, CPT Benapole offers slightly up by $1 and stood at $397/t.
  
  

Finished Long Steel

• IF-rebar:India's induction furnace route finished long steel prices followed a mixed trend. The trading activities remained dull this week owing to the festive atmosphere in the market. Also, buyers had booked sufficient material in the previous weeks and are currently resorting to need based buying. A similar trend in sponge iron and steel billet was noticed. Even though there was a bid- offer disparity, mills tried to maintain offer levels although it varies region-to-region. Also, further hike in prices announced by primary mills provided support for the same. Currently, participants await clarity on the trend before making bulk procurements as prices are likely to remain volatile in the near-term.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, in rebar steel prices varied in the range of INR 200-1,600/t across the regions and few markets were stable as per BigMint assessment shows.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 44,300-44,700/t exw Raipur, INR 49,100-49,500/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 47,000-47,500/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rod hovering at INR 45,000-45,500/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF-rebar:Indian primary mills increased rebar list prices by up to INR 1,000/t during the week. Post revision, list prices hovered in the range of INR 53,500-54,000/t on landed basis. Following the price hike, trade-level prices rose across major markets. Buying interest in the trader's market improved slightly in some regions due to price hike by mills and material shortages from major PSU steelmakers, prompting higher quotes from participants. Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm) in the trade segment rose by INR 1,200/t w-o-w to INR 53,600/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 52,000-53,000/t FOR Mumbai.
  
  

Finished flate steel

• Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have experienced a significant uptick, increasing by INR 200-800/tonne (t) ($2-10/t) to INR 48,500-51,500/t ($578-614/t). In contrast, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices remained relatively stable across different markets, at INR 56,500-59,500/t ($673-709/t).
  
  
• The overall trade market is demonstrating signs of recovery, as evidenced by a growing volume of enquiries leading to actual sales.
  
  
• The cumulative import volume, based on BigMint's vessel line-up data, stood at 262,296 t till 7 October 2024. It was 776,835 t in September and 627,426 t in August. However, an additional 198,131 t is expected in October. A deal for 5,000 t of HRCs from South Korea was heard concluded at $530/t CFR Chennai for November 2024.
  
  
• While Indian HRC exports to the Middle East witnessed a revival, offers to the European Union (EU) remained relatively stable, reflecting sluggishness in the current EU market. India has also made substantial progress in utilising its allocated HRCs quota for the third quarter of 2024 (Q3CY'24), with approximately 80% of the total quota of 301,704 t consumed.
  
  
• Meanwhile, in Vietnam, leading steel manufacturers, such as Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS) and the Hoa Phat Group, announced a price increase for domestic HRC sales in December, with FHS's offers reaching around $545-555/t CIF Ho Chi Minh City.