Weekly round-up: Semi-finished prices rise amid moderate finished steel demand

• Iron ore prices rise on robust deal activity
  
  
• Flat steel market exhibits price stability
  
  

Domestic induction furnace (IF) finished long steel showed positive trends. Primary mills hiked offers, which turned buyers' focus towards the secondary market.

Iron ore, pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index rose to INR 9,100/tonne (t) ($109/t) DAP Raipur on 27 September 2024. Pellet prices in Raipur rose amid active deals at the higher offers.
  
  
• Export prices of pellets from India also climbed up following improvements in the global market amid the approaching Chinese national holidays in the first week of October. BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) increased by $11.5/t w-o-w to $95.5/t on 27 September 2024. The recent stimulus announcement has had a positive impact on the domestic ferrous commodities markets, leading to an increase in imported iron ore prices.
  
  
• The Indian lower-grade fines market showed positive trends this week, with active trades at higher prices in the seaborne market due to improved sentiments in China. BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $7.5/t w-o-w to $60.5/t FOB east coast on 26 September 2024. The discount level dropped this week, with reductions offered at 19-20% on the global fines index.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal trended up by 9% to $204.75/t FOB. Prices picked up sharply on strong steel fundamentals.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices remained unchanged w-o-w at $101/t FOB. RB3 prices edged down to $68/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port remained unchanged at INR 7,600/t.
  
  

Ferrous scrap

• At the start of the week, India's imported scrap market slowed down due to bid-offer disparities, which made it difficult to close deals.
  
  
• Shredded scrap from the US and UK/Europe was offered at $385-390/t CFR, while HMS (80:20) was priced at $360-370/t. Buyers, however, placed bids $8-12/t lower, preferring domestic scrap for cost-effectiveness.
  
  
• By mid-week, the market showed signs of improvement as domestic billet and ingot prices increased, leading to more interest in imported scrap, especially HMS grades, though demand for shredded scrap remained weak.
  
  
• Offers for South African and American hand-loaded HMS were at $380-390/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while bids were lower at $365/t CFR.
  
  
• In southern India, offers from Australia were at $380-385/t for shredded scrap and $365-370/t for HMS (80:20). European, Polish, and South African offers were at $375-380/t for HMS (80:20), $390/t for HMS (90:10), $396-400/t for shredded scrap, and $410-415/t for busheling.
  
  
• Towards the weekend, domestic scrap prices remained strong, and there was no immediate rush to import. While prices trended higher, Indian buyers weighed other raw material costs before committing to deep-sea purchases.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: Silico manganese prices edged up by around INR 1,400/t ($17/t) to INR 66,300-67,000/t ($794-803/t) w-o-w exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam. The domestic silico manganese market witnessed an increase this week, driven by rising steel prices. However, trade volumes remained low, as buyers were still evaluating whether to accept higher-priced offers.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: India's ferro manganese (HC70%) prices in Raipur inched down by around INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 69,600/t ($834/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur, prices dipped by around INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 69,000/t ($827/t). Prices declined due to stagnant market demand, with a lack of significant changes in inquiries impacting overall pricing.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices went up by around INR 6,800/t ($81/t) w-o-w to settle at INR 96,100/t ($1,151/t) exw-Guwahati on 27 September. Prices in Bhutan also rose by INR 4,300/t ($52/t) w-o-w, reaching INR 95,500/t ($1,144/t) exw. Prices rose due to a supply crunch caused by the suspension of operations at several Meghalaya plants.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%,Si:4%) remained largely stable, inching up by INR 3,000/t ($36/t) to INR 110,100/t ($1,315/t) w-o-w exw-Jajpur on 27 September. Prices edged up post higher bids at OMC's chrome ore and FACOR's ferro chrome auctions.
  
  

Semi finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed an increase as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations went up by INR 1,300-2,000/t across regions, with the steepest increase of INR 2,000/t seen in the Ahmedabad market. Similarly, sponge iron prices also increased in almost all key locations by INR 700-1,700/t, with the largest hike of INR 1,700/t noted in the Raigarh market.
  
  
• The SAIL-Bokaro Steel Plant (BSL) held an auction for 14,500 t of steel-grade pig iron on 20 September 2024. The entire quantity was booked at an average price of INR 34,950/t exw. In the previous auction on 1 August 2024, 6,000 t of steel-grade pig iron, the entire volume on offer, was booked at an average price of INR 35,900/t exw.
  
  
• NMDC's steel plant in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, conducted a steel-grade pig iron auction for 24,000 t on 26 September 2024. The entire quantity received bids at an average price of INR 34,700/t. However, management approval is still pending. In the previous approved auction, held on 19 September, out of 32,000 t, 24000 t were booked at an average price of INR 33,500/t.
  
  
• Indian direct reduced iron (DRI) export offers increased by $29/t for CPT Raxaul, reaching $371/t, while CPT Benapole offers increased by $4/t to $364/t.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF rebar: India's IF route finished long steel prices surged w-o-w amid improved buying interest. Following robust buying this week and the last, sellers were compelled to hike offers. As a result, mills also reported a reduction in inventory pressure, as current stock levels are at around 7-10 days, depending on the region. Furthermore, to gain better margins, rebar manufacturers in the west have revised gauge parity in a few sizes. In the near term, participants expect prices to remain supported, owing to a similar trend in raw materials such as sponge iron, pig iron, scrap and billet. Additionally, blast furnace (BF) route mills have announced price hikes this week, which has also kept market sentiment positive.
  
  
• Rebar prices increased in the range of INR 800-2,500/t w-o-w across regions as per BigMint's assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade IF route rebar (10-25 mm size) was assessed at INR 44,000-44,400/t exw Raipur and INR 47,000-47,600/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• The trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150 mm channel stood at INR 45,800-46,300/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• The trade reference prices of wire rods hovered at INR 44,200-44,700/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF rebar: Indian tier-1 mills increased the list prices of rebars by up to INR 1,000/t. Post revision, list prices hovered at INR 50,500-52,000/t on a landed basis. Following this, trade-level BF rebar prices witnessed an increase across major markets. Current week's rebar prices (12-32 mm) in the trade segment rose INR 500/t w-o-w to INR 50,500/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In addition, supply issues from a public sector undertaking (PSU) steelmaker continued to persist, leading participants to quote higher prices amid ongoing shortages in some markets.
  
  
• In the projects segment, prices hovered at INR 49,000-50,000/t landed Mumbai basis. Buying activities in the projects segment were need-based only.
  
  

Finished flat steel

• The Indian flat steel market exhibited a period of price stability. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices remained within the ranges of INR 46,000-51,000/t and INR 55,500-60,000/t, respectively. This price stability was attributed to a combination of factors, including need-based procurement and the anticipation of the upcoming festive season.
  
  
• Import volumes, as per vessel line-up data, reached 6,27,334 t by September 23, 2024. While this figure represented a slight decrease compared to previous months, an additional 83,440 t are expected to arrive before the end of September. Furthermore, October is projected to witness an influx of 2,19,749 t of imported steel.
  
  
• Indian HRC exports remained subdued. Despite offering competitive prices to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, local mills were unable to secure significant export volumes due to geopolitical tensions in the region and competition from other sources. Additionally, ongoing anti-dumping investigations in Europe hampered Indian HRC exports to that market.