Weekly round-up: Semi-finished prices rise amid moderate finished steel demand

• Raw material prices show mixed trends w-o-w
  
  
• Safeguard speculation drive up finished prices
  
  

The domestic steel market saw a positive trend during week 4 ( 20-25 January, 2025), as semi-finished steel prices edged up by INR 100-400/tonne (t).

Iron ore and pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, increased by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 9,500/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 24 January 2025. Around 86,000 pellet deals were recorded in the Raipur region this week. Pellet offers from Raipur producers remained unchanged.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $1.5/t w-o-w to $67.5/t FOB east coast, India, on 23 January 2025. Three deals of around 165,000 t Fe57% fines were recorded at $75-77/t CFR China this week. Another two deals of 155,000 t Fe55-56% fines were recorded at $60-64/t FOB East Coast, India.
  
  
• India's pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast remained stable w-o-w at $103/t on 24 January. India-based pelletmaker concluded around 200,000 t of pellet (Fe 63%) export deals this week ahead of the Lunar holidays.
  
  
• Domestic low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices in Karnataka's Bellary region witnessed a marginal drop this week.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly index for low-grade fines (Fe 57%) decreased w-o-w by INR 50/t ($1/t) to stand at INR 2,900/tonne (t) ($34/t) ex-mines Bellary (excluding taxes). Similarly, the Fe 62% fines index also fell to INR 4,800/t ($56/t) ex-mines
  
  
• Bellary, inclusive of taxes, showed a fall of INR 150/t ($2/t), w-o-w. Additionally, some offers were seen at higher levels of INR 5,400/t ($62/t).
  
  

Coal

• South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports stayed stable, with RB2 at INR 8,800/t and RB3 at INR 7,300/t ex-Gangavaram, as weak demand and sponge iron production cuts maintained downward pressure on the market.
  
  
• Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports declined by 2.3% to 13.89 mnt in week 3 of CY'25, reflecting subdued cargo movement.
  
  
• India's domestic met coke prices rose this week, with 25-90 mm BF-grade at INR 34,000/t exw-Jajpur and INR 31,500/t exw-Gandhidham, driven by optimistic sentiments despite limited buyer interest.
  
  

Ferro scrap

• The Indian imported scrap market saw limited activity despite a 1% increase in shredded scrap prices from the UK, which stood at $376/t CFR India, up from $373/t in the previous week. Shredded scrap offers from the US and UK/Europe were quoted at $370-375/t CFR Nhava Sheva, but buyers countered with lower bids at $365-370/t, resulting in minimal transactions. HMS (80:20) was offered at $340-350/t CFR.
  
  
• Domestic scrap remained the preferred choice for buyers, being more cost-effective and readily available. Anticipation around the upcoming Budget and potential safeguard duties further dampened interest in imported materials.
  
  
• However, while shredded scrap prices edged higher, market activity remained cautious as buyers and sellers adopted a wait-and-see approach.
  
  
• Approximately 2,000-3,000 t of scrap were booked, including 500-800 t of HMS (80:20) from South Africa at $350-355/t, 1,000-1,500 t of shredded scrap from the US at $365/t, and 300-500 t of fabrication scrap from Poland at $390/t.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: Indian domestic silico manganese prices were steady with a slight decline of INR 50/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 69,200-70,500/t ($802-817/t) in key regions of Durgapur, Raipur and Vizag. Domestic smelters maintained steady offers w-o-w, refraining from giving further discounts on materials, as major global miners lifted manganese ore prices, which significantly increased smelters' production costs.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: Indian ferro manganese (HC 70%) prices inched down by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 73,500/t ($852/t) exw in Raipur. The prices witnessed stability w-o-w on steady market operations and firm demand.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon prices came down slightly by INR 1,500/t ($17/t) w-o-w to INR 102,100/t ($1,184/t) exw-Guwahati. Prices were stable, as routine trades for around 1,400 t were recorded in both north-eastern India and Bhutan at INR 101,500-104,500/t ($1,173-1,208/t) exw.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si: 4%) prices were steady, inching down by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 98,200/t ($1,139/t) exw-Jajpur. Prices fell as OMC's chrome ore auction on 17 January witnessed m-o-m drop in bids for majority of the grades. Additionall , need-based purchases kept prices steady w-o-w.
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices moved up as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices rose slightly by INR 100-400/t overall. However, prices in Gujarat and Chennai regions edged lower by INR 100/t w-o-w. Similarly, sponge iron prices increased by INR 200-550/t across all key regions this week, with significant rises in Bellary and Durgapur regions due to improved buying activity.?
  
  
• NMDC's steel plant in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, conducted an auction for 10,000 t of steel-grade pig iron on 20 January. Out of the total quantity on offer, 7,000 t were booked at a base price of INR 31,000/t. In the previous auction, held on 13 January, around 1,000 t were booked at an average price of INR 31,500/t.
  
  
• NMDC's steel plant in Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh, conducted an auction for 16,000 t of steel-grade pig iron on 24 January. The entire quantity on offer was booked at an average price of INR 30,100/t. At the previous auction, of the 10,000 t on offer, 7,000 t were booked at the base price of INR 31,000/t.
  
  
• Indian sponge DRI export offers registered a marginal decline of $3/t for both Nepal and Bangladesh. Prices dropped to $338/t CPT Raxaul for Nepal and $337/t CPT Benapole for Bangladesh.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF-rebar: India's induction furnace route finished long steel prices upped marginally w-o-w. Moderate bookings and new orders were witnessed while lifting of previously-booked inventory improved as buyers procured as per requirement. On the other side, rebar manufacturers either increased list prices or reduced their trade discount depending on the booking orders they received. However, still traders are not much confident about the market trend and restricted themselves to buying in bulk at increased prices. According to market participants, prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, as the upcoming Budget may influence sentiments in the market.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, rebar prices increased in the range of INR 200-600/t across regions except in Goa and Ahmedabad markets where prices fell by INR 100/t and 400/t respectively, as per BigMint's assessment.
  
  

• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar, of 10-25 mm, manufactured via the IF route, was assessed at INR 41,100-41,500/t exw Raipur, INR 46,000-46,600/t exw-Jalna.
  
  
  

• Trade reference prices of heavy structural steel, base size 150mm, stood at INR 43,500-43,900/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
  

• Trade reference prices of wire rods hovered at INR 42,700-43,200/t ex-Raipur.
  
  
  
• BF-rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices dropped w-o-w across major markets amid subdued domestic demand. Demand in the trade channel has remained slow this month, as buyers have moved to the sidelines amid weak market sentiments.
  
  
• However, trade-level BF rebar prices remained unchanged w-o-w at INR 52,200/tonne (t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint's assessment on 24 January 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 48,500-49,500/t FOR Mumbai. Buyers were cautious and engaged in need-basis procurement amid fall in prices.
  
  

Flat steel

• BigMint's benchmark assessments (bi-weekly) of HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL), increased by INR 800/t w-o-w to INR 47,400/t on 24 January 2025. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
  
  
• While BigMint's benchmark assessment shows a strong upward trend, the broader trade market for HRCs exhibited mixed price movements. A majority of markets experienced a decline in prices, ranging from INR 100-500/t. Conversely, cold rolled coils (CRCs) remained relatively stable during this period.
  
  

Key price drivers in Mumbai:

• Reduced imports: No new bookings of imported HRC were reported, leading to lower inventory levels and upward pressure on trade prices.
  
  
• Market speculation: Speculation around potential safeguard duties and a likely hike in list prices for the coming month drove prices higher. Market buzz also suggests strong demand from various regions, though actual market activity remained subdued