Weekly round-up: Semi-finished market sees volatility, flats remain range-bound

• Iron ore export tags up on Chinese restocking activities
  
  
• Weak demand, liquidity crunch impact BF-rebar, HRC
  
  

The domestic steel market witnessed negative trends during week 48 (25-30 November 2024). Semi-finished steel prices were volatile, falling by INR 400-1,100/tonne (t) w-o-w. However, the flat segment witnessed range-bound pricing.

Iron ore, pellet

• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, fell INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 9,150/t DAP Raipur on 29 November. The Raipur pellet market remained under pressure this week, as steelmakers stayed on the sidelines, waiting for price clarity. With no deals reported, market participants noted a cautious sentiment, driven by the recent sharp drop in sponge PDRI and steel prices.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $3/t w-o-w to $64/t FOB east coast, India, on 28 November. The Indian iron ore export market witnessed a price surge this week, buoyed by increased interest from seaborne buyers engaging in restocking activities ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays. This week, export deals of around 165,000 t of fines (Fe57%) were recorded.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) increased by $9/t w-o-w to $104.5/t on 29 November amid some active deals. An eastern India-based seller concluded an export cargo deal for around 75,000 t of pellets (Fe63%, max 8% Al2O3+SiO2) yesterday for December loading. Bullish market sentiments, driven by a favourable global fines index, supported pellet export prices.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk freights (50,000-55,000 t) for iron ore shipments from the east coast of India to China declined by $0.3/t w-o-w to $12.2/t on 27 November. Dry bulk iron ore freight rates trended down this week amid lack of interest from Chinese buyers, a prolonged property slump, rising debt risks, and weak domestic demand.
  
  

Coal

• Australian coking coal prices remained largely stable w-o-w at $203/t FOB amid a significant gap between offers and bids.
  
  
• RB2 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices remained unchanged w-o-w at $89/t FOB. RB3 prices remained firm w-o-w at $70/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port edged down to INR 7,650/t w-o-w.
  
  

Ferrous scrap

• India's imported scrap market witnessed subdued activity throughout the week, driven by weak steel demand, bid-offer disparities, and the availability of competitively priced domestic scrap. Shredded offers from the US and UK/Europe dropped 1% to $383/t CFR from $386/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while bids remained capped at around $380/t CFR, leading to minimal transactions. HMS (80:20) offers from the UK/Europe were heard at $360-365/t CFR, with West African material slightly higher at $365-375/t CFR.
  
  
• Steel producers preferred domestic material, citing quicker delivery and reduced risk amid global market uncertainty. The automotive and construction sectors have remained stagnant post-Diwali, while ongoing rains across several states further delayed any recovery in demand.
  
  
• Despite regional rebar price fluctuations, no long-term improvement in steel demand is expected. Suppliers, particularly from the UK and Australia, held firm on offers, but market insiders expect subdued prices to persist until year-end, given the lack of immediate demand from Asian buyers.
  
  
• Throughout the week, a total of 4,500-5,000 t of scrap was booked, comprising HMS (80:20), shredded, and turning boring sourced from Australia, Ireland, the US, Africa, and Canada. Of this, shredded accounted for 1,000 t, priced at $377-385/t, while HMS (80:20) was booked at $357-372/t. Turning boring was secured at around $345/t CFR.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Domestic silico manganese prices remained under pressure due to weak demand and cautious procurement by steel mills. Amid surplus supply, smelters' efforts to control production have not reversed the overall bearish market trend. Notably, prices of the 60-14 grade fell by INR 425/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 64,100-65,000/t ($758-769/t) exw in Raipur, Durgapur, and Visakhapatnam.
  
  
• Indian ferro manganese (HC70%) prices inched down by around INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 66,300/t ($784/t) exw in Raipur and by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 66,000/t ($780/t) in Durgapur. Sluggish market demand, coupled with resistance to higher prices, forced sellers to lower their quotes. This led to a decline in overall prices and reduced market activity.
  
  
• Indian ferro silicon (FeSi: 70%) prices were largely stable, inching down by around INR 400/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 108,500/t ($1,283/t) exw-Guwahati on 29 November. Meanwhile, prices in Bhutan edged down by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 109,000/t ($1,289/t) exw. Prices were mostly stable due to firm offers and stable market conditions.
  
  
• Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si: 4%) prices fell by INR 1,300/t ($15/t) to INR 107,400/t ($1270/t) exw-Jajpur. Lower bids at FACOR's latest ferro chrome auction exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, Vedanta-FACOR's next auction on 2 December 2024 will provide further clarity on prices.
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices showed downward movements, as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations decreased by INR 400-1,100/t, with a major decline of INR 1,100/t seen in the Raipur market. Similarly, sponge iron prices also showed a downtrend of INR 400-1,100/t, with a major drop of INR 1,100/t seen in the Ramgarh market.
  
  
• On 25 November 2024, NMDC's Nagarnar steel plant conducted an auction for 32,000 t of steel-grade pig iron at a base price of INR 31,500/t. However, only 16,000 t were booked at an average price of INR 31,500/t. In the previous auction, on 21 November 2024, 4,000 t were booked at an average price of INR 31,500/t.
  
  
• On 28 November 2024, NMDC's Nagarnar steel plant conducted an auction for 32,000 t of steel-grade pig iron at a base price of INR 31,000/t. However, only 4,000 t were booked at an average price of INR 31,000/t.
  
  
• Indian direct reduced iron (DRI) export offers decreased by $15/t for CPT Raxaul to $346/t, while CPT Benapole quotes fell $3/t to $357/t.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF-rebar: India's induction furnace (IF) route finished long steel prices edged lower w-o-w. Trading activities remained dull throughout the week amid a lack of buying interest. Sellers offered attractive discounts to boost sales, but buyers chose to stay on the sidelines. A similar trend in sponge iron and steel billets exacerbated the situation. As per participants, higher inventories and slow lifting of previously booked material may keep prices under pressure in the near term.
  
  
• W-o-w, rebar prices declined by INR 300-1,200/t across regions, BigMint's assessment shows.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar (10-25 mm size), manufactured via the IF route, was assessed at INR 41,400-41,600/t exw-Raipur and INR 45,500-46,100/t exw-Jalna.
  
  

• The trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150 mm channels stood at INR 43,500-44,000/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
  

• The trade reference price of wire rods hovered at INR 41,600-42,100/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
  
• BF-rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices declined w-o-w amid subdued domestic demand and a liquidity crunch, which impacting market sentiments. Major mills have offered discounts on list prices this month, market sources informed.
  
  
• Rebar prices (12-32 mm) in the trade segment edged down by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 54,000/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 53,000-54,000/t FOR Mumbai. Prices dropped w-o-w amid slow buying interest from end-users.
  
  

Flat steel

• India's hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices remained range-bound this week at INR 47,500-49,900/t ($563-591/t) amid slow sales. Cold-rolled coil (CRC) tags were stable at INR 53,500-58,500/t ($634-693/t) across various regions. Softening demand and a persistent liquidity crunch dampened market activity.
  
  
• India's cumulative import volume, based on BigMint's vessel line-up data, stood at 492,904 t till 25 November. An additional 42,591 t are expected by the end of November, while another 81,117 t are likely to arrive in the first week of December.
  
  
• Indian exports of HRCs were slow this week due to competition from cheaper Chinese steel in the global market. Indian mills were not active in the Middle East ahead of the upcoming National Day holidays. The European market witnessed limited activity, and Indian mills kept prices steady. India has only used 8% of its allocated quarterly quota for exporting HRCs to Europe. Export prices to Europe for the S275 grade, 3 mm thickness, remained unchanged at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB east coast India) on 22 November.