Weekly round-up: Indian flat steel prices range-bound, semis remain volatile

Iron ore and pellet

NMDC has reduced list prices of iron ore calibrated lump ore (CLO) and fines today by INR 600/t($7) and INR 500/t ($6), BigMint learnt from sources. The company's prices are effective from 7 August 2024. The miner has fixed prices of DR CLO (10-40mm, Fe67%) at INR 6,420/t ($76/t) and of iron ore fines (-10mm, Fe64%) at INR 4,610/t ($55/t) on FOR basis from its Bacheli complex. Prices include royalty, DMF and NMET charges. Fines prices have hit a ten-month low as these price levels were last seen in October, 2023, as per BigMint.

BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, decreased by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 9,000 DAP Raipur on 9 August. No deals were concluded by Raipur buyers as local pellet players kept their sales closed to complete the previous orders. Durg-based pellet producer concluded a pellet (Fe63%) deal of around 30,000 at INR 9,000/t exw this week. NMDC had an auction for 224,000 t of iron ore on 3 August, 2024 from its Kumaraswamy mines. Around 48,000 t of lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 64.04%) got booked at INR 5,766-5,776/t against the base price of INR 5,196/t while 176,000 t fines (Fe 59.25-64.42%) got booked at INR 3,999-5,235/t against the base price of INR 3,489-4,485/t.

BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) remained stable w-o-w at $93/t on 9 August 2024. An eastern India-based producer finalised an export deal for 75,000 t of pellets (Fe62%, 8% SiO2+ Al2O3) this week at around $111/t CFR China for August shipment. Export prices dropped in the later half of the week.

Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 t) freight rates for an iron ore vessel from the east coast of India to China rose by $0.5/t (t) w-o-w to $13/t on 7 August. Iron ore freight rates on global routes showed diverse trends this week. In the Indian Ocean, some fixtures pushed rates higher despite lower bunker prices. Meanwhile, Australian miners also actively booked tonnages which boosted freights.

Coal

Australian premium hard coking coal prices dropped by $2/t w-o-w to $214.5/t FOB. This was due to ample material available and muted trading activities. RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices remained stable for the week at $110/t FOB. Also, RB3 prices remained unchanged at $75/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa. Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port remained largely stable at INR 7,700/t.

Ferro scrap

India's imported scrap market remained sluggish throughout the week, characterised by limited buyer interest, a significant gap between offers and bids, and the availability of cheaper domestic alternatives like sponge iron and local scrap. Indicative offers for shredded scrap from the UK/Europe and the US hovered around $410-415/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while buyers were unwilling to pay above $400-405/t CFR. Similarly, HMS (80:20) offers were quoted at $380-390/t CFR, but buyers sought lower prices.

Despite a few distressed container sales for shredded scrap in the northern region, the overall demand remained weak, with market participants anticipating more activity by mid-August, expecting a potential demand rebound post-monsoon. However, ongoing rains and sluggish steel demand kept the market under pressure, with production levels in many mills reduced to around 50-60%. Sellers noted that even when inquiries increased, they were not at workable levels, further emphasising the current bearish sentiment in India's imported scrap market.

Ferro alloys

Silico manganese: Silico manganese prices remained largely stable w-o-w with marginal drop of around INR 250/t ($3/t) to INR 68,600-69,000/t ($817-822/t) exw across Raipur, Durgapur and Vishakhapatnam markets. The overall market sentiment remained cautious, these developments have provided temporary support to prices, which has resulted in price stability for this week.

Ferro manganese: India's ferro manganese (HC70%) prices are down w-o-w by INR 900/t ($11/t) in Raipur to INR 75,100/t ($895/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur, prices dropped by INR 700/t ($8/t) w-o-w to INR 75,400/t ($898/t). Prices took a downturn due to unacceptance towards higher quotes and subdued market environment.

Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices dropped by INR 2,200/t ($26/t) w-o-w, settling at INR 88,800/t ($1,056/t) exw-Guwahati on 9 August. Meanwhile, Bhutan's prices fell by INR 1,200/t ($14/t), reaching INR 89,800/t ($1,070/t) exw. Prices dropped post-Bhutan's August offers were announced.

Ferro chrome: Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) dropped by INR 2,100/t ($25/t) on 9 August, settling at INR 103,400/t ($1,232/t) exw-Jajpur as the demand declined continuously.

Semi-finished

• Semi-finished Indian semi-finished steel prices showed downward trend as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices in almost all key locations decreased by INR 200-1,000/t across regions, with a major decrease of INR 1000/t seen in the Rourkela market. However, billet prices in the Mumbai market showed an increase by INR 200. Similarly, sponge iron prices also decreased in almost all key locations by INR 100-550/t, with a major decrease of INR 559/t seen in the Raigarh and Hyderabad markets.
  
  
• Indian Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) export offers increased by approximately $8-11/t, reaching $364/t on CPT Raxaul, and $378/t on CPT Benapole.
  
  

Finished long steel

IF-rebar: India's induction furnace route-finished long steel prices edged lower w-o-w amid sluggish market sentiment. Buying activities continued to remain dull throughout the week as buyers entered wait-and-watch mode in anticipation of further clarity of price trend in the market. Also, heavy rainfall throughout the country has slowed down construction activities. Sellers across many regions have resorted to production cuts owing to rising inventory levels. Participants expect need-based material procurement to continue in the near-term considering the ongoing scenario.

On a weekly basis, in rebar steel prices declined in the range of INR 500-1300/t across the regions except in Mumbai market where prices increased by INR 700/t as per BigMint assessment.

The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 40,900-41,300/t exw Raipur, INR 44,200-44,800/t exw Jalna. Trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 44,000-44,500/t exw Raipur.

Trade reference prices of wire rod hovering at INR 42,000-42,500/t ex Raipur.

BF-rebar: Indian tier 1 mills reduced rebar list prices by INR 2,500-3,000/t m-o-m for early-August 2024 sales. Following this, trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices fell w-o-w by INR 500-1,200/t across markets. Prices weighed downwards owing to subdued demand in the domestic market.

Current week's rebar prices (12-32mm) in the trade segment dropped by INR 500/t w-o-w to INR 50,300/t exy-Mumbai. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%. In the projects segment, prices were hovering around INR 48,000-49,000/t FOR Mumbai. Buyers remained on sidelines amid continuous fall in prices and weak market sentiments.

Finished flat steel

Some Indian flat steel producers have reduced list prices of hot rolled coils (HRCs) and cold rolled coils (CRCs) by around INR 1,000-2,000/t ($12-24/t) on m-o-m with effect from 1 August 2024. One private mill has rolled over prices against end-July. A few mills have also extended rebates of around INR 500-750/t ($6-9/t) for July sales, BigMint learnt from industry sources. Current effective list prices for HRCs (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E250, Br.) are INR 51,500-52,500/t ($614-625/t) ex-Mumbai, while CRCs (0.9mm, IS513 CR1) hover at INR 57,000-58,500/t ($679-697/t). Announcements from some of the mills are yet to be received. The above prices exclude GST at 18%. BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8mm) prices inched down by INR 100/t ($1/t) at INR 51,100/t ($609/t) on 6 August compared to the previous week. Also, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9mm) prices fell by INR 400/t ($5/t) to INR 58,100/t ($692/t) during the same period. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries. (INR 1 = USD 0.0119137 ; USD 1 = INR 83.9369) The domestic steel market is experiencing subdued demand, primarily concentrated at lower price points. This is attributed to the influx of competitively priced imports exerting downward pressure on prices. Import volumes have surged, with July imports of HRCs and plates reaching 636,651 t, and an additional 86,562 t anticipated by mid-August. The European Commission has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain hot-rolled flat products of iron, non-alloy, or other alloy steel originating in Egypt, India, Japan, and Vietnam. Simultaneously, India's steel export performance has been adversely affected. Intensified competition from other exporting nations, coupled with weakening demand and reduced pricing from China, has impacted exports to key markets including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the European Union. Steel export volumes in July contracted to 118,621 t.