Weekly round-up: Indian finished steel market shows downtrend but prices of semis edge up

Domestic induction furnace finished long steel offers witnessed a downtrend in prices this week. Trade reference prices for hot rolled coil (HRC) and cold rolled coil (CRC) fell by up to INR 500/t.

Iron ore and pellets

• NMDC increased list prices of calibrated lump ore and fines by INR 250/t($3/t) and INR 350/t ($4/t) respectively, BigMint learnt from reliable sources. The company's prices are effective from 28 May 2024. The miner has fixed prices of DR CLO (10-40mm, Fe67%) at INR 7,520/t ($90/t) and of iron ore fines (-10mm, Fe64%) at INR 5,610/t ($67/t) on FoR basis from its Bacheli complex. Prices include royalty, DMF and NMET charges.
  
  
• Iron ore and pellet BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, increased by INR 450/t w-o-w at INR 11,000/tonne (t) DAP Raipur on 31 May. Around 35,000 deals of pellets (Fe3-66%) were recorded in the Raipur region in the last one week. Raipur pellet makers raised their offers by around INR 800/t in the last week the NMDC price hike.
  
  
• BigMint's weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index fell by $2/t w-o-w to $66.5/tonne (t) FOB east coast on 30 May 2024. Around 55,000 t of standard grade Fe 57% fines cargo was concluded at $81-82/t CFR China by an Indian miner in this publishing window but it was not confirmed by the time of publishing this article. A major miner in Odisha has also concluded 4-5 cargoes (around 275,000 t) of Fe 54% fines at around $69/t CFR China a few days back.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) remained unchanged w-o-w at $109/t on 29 May. No deal was recorded from the East Coast in this publishing window. Sellers remained cautious amid bid-offer disparity and favourable domestic margins.
  
  
• Asia-Pacific Supramax dry bulk (50,000-55,000 t) freight rates for an iron ore vessel from the east coast of India to China inched down by $0.7/t this week to $14.3/t on 29 May. Dry bulk iron ore freight rates edged lower this week for key routes. Amid improved iron ore supplies and high stock levels at Chinese ports, there is less urgency for buyers to secure new shipments. In addition, buyers have booked vessels at lower rates for June shipments. Meanwhile, fewer enquiries have been witnessed this week amid softer demand for iron ore.
  
  

Coal

• Australian premium hard coking coal prices edged by $3/t w-o-w to $242/t FOB and $259/ t CNF on 31 May. Prices rose on firm demand and anticipation of tightening of July laycan cargoes.
  
  
• RB1 (6000 NAR) grade coal prices edged up w-o-w to $107/t FOB. However, RB3 stood stable w-o-w at $79/t FOB Richards Bay, South Africa.
  
  
• Portside prices of South African RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal at Vizag Port were recorded at INR 8,400/t, stable w-o-w.
  
  

Ferros Scrap

• Throughout the week the market for imported scrap saw moderate activity, with buyers purchasing small quantities to meet immediate needs due to the anticipation of a drop in offers. Additionally, some regions experienced bid-offer disparities. On average, shredded scrap offers from Europe decreased by $2/t to $416/t CFR, while offers from the US remained stable at $414/r CFR.

  Notably, approximately 6,000 t of shredded scrap were booked from the US, UK, and Australia at prices ranging from $415-418/r CFR. Furthermore, 4,500 t of HMS (80:20) were booked from Africa at around $395-410/t CFR, and about 2,000t of HMS (90:10) scrap were booked from Chile at around $398-400/t CFR.
  
  

• A steel mill official said, "For imports, we bought small quantities and mostly took a wait-and-watch approach as we expected prices to drop." Another steel mill source commented, "Scrap supply was tight in the domestic market primarily due to tight cash flows amidst elections. We are waiting for import offers to drop before booking more scrap. Domestic buying continues regularly, with production levels around 90%."
  
  

Ferro Alloys

• Silico Manganese: Silico manganese prices in India rose by INR 2,750/t ($33/t) w-o-w to INR 85,000-86,600/t ($1,019-1,038/t) exw across major markets. After Comilog's new offer for Gabonese manganese ore for July shipment, offers in India, too, have picked up.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: Ferro manganese (HC70%) prices rose by INR 5,200/t ($62/t) w-o-w in Raipur, reaching INR 93,400/t ($1,119/t) exw. Meanwhile, in Durgapur prices rose by INR 4,200/t ($50/t) w-o-w to INR 93,000/t ($1,115/t). Prices increased due to elevated ore prices and improved demand in the domestic market.
  
  
• Ferro Silicon: Indian ferro silicon (FeSi:70%) prices remained steady at INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w settling at INR 99,100/t ($1,188/t) exw-Guwahati on 31 May. Meanwhile, Bhutan's prices also inched down by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w, reaching INR 98,200/t ($1,177/t) exw. The market showed no significant changes, and regular trades were seen at prevailing rates; hence, prices remained stable.
  
  
• Ferro Chrome: Prices of Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si:4%) moved down by INR 500/t ($6/t) w-o-w on 31 May settling at INR 105,800/t ($1,268/t) exw-Jajpur. Prices reached a five-month low, as per data maintained with BigMint, since the market remained muted.
  
  

Semi Finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices increased, as per BiglMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices increased by INR 200-600/t in almost all key regions, with a major increase of INR 600/t seen in the Mandi Gobindgarh and Ramgarh markets. However, billet prices in Mumbai and Chennai dropped by INR 200-500/t. Sponge iron prices in some key locations also increased by INR 100-400/t, with a major increase of INR 400/t seen in the Durgapur market. However, sponge iron prices in the Ramgarh, Raigarh, Raipur, and Jharsuguda markets dropped by INR 50-500/t.
  
  
• SAIL-Durgapur Steel Plant (DSP) held an auction for 2,500 t of steel-grade pig iron on 31 May. The total quantity was booked at an average price of INR 41,000/t exw.
  
  
• SAIL-Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) held an auction for 5,000 t of steel-grade pig iron on 31 May'24. The entire quantity was booked at an average price of INR 39,700/t exw.
  
  
• The Nepal Union Budget for 2024 has introduced several changes to the import duty structure that are expected to impact the steel industry. Key changes include increases in import duties for sponge iron, scrap, and pig iron, alongside the waiving of excise duty on imported billets.
  
  
• Indian DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) export offers decreased by approximately $4/t, reaching $406/t CPT Raxaul, while CPT Benapole prices remained stable at $408/t.
  
  

Finished Long Steel

• IF-rebar:India's induction furnace finished long steel prices witnessed a mixed trend this week. Trading activities remained moderate till the middle of the week as traders booked material as per requirement amid volatility in prices and uncertain market direction. However, movement in the spot market turned slow during weekend as sellers either hiked their offer prices or lowered the trade discounts across regions, after which buyers opted for a wait-and watch policy and resorted to need-based buying. Since, the general election results are going to be declared next week, the market is likely to be highly volatile in the near term.
  
  
• On a weekly basis, in rebar prices fluctuated by INR 200-1,000/t across regions, as per BigMint assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 47,900-48,300/t exw Raipur and INR 51,700-52,300/t exw Jalna.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of heavy structural steel for base size 150mm channel stands at INR 50,000-50,400/t exw Raipur.
  
  
• Trade reference prices of wire rod are hovering at INR 48,100-48,500/t ex Raipur.
  
  
• BF-rebar:Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices witnessed a drop w-o-w amid weak buying interest and easing of material availability. The operations of a PSU steel major started a few days back and dispatches are likely to resume fully by early-June. Other private mills will also resume full operations this month, which will enhance supplies in the market. Furthermore, mills are likely to announce list prices for June sales next week.
  
  
• Rebar prices (12-32mm, Fe500D and Fe550D) in the trade segment dropped INR 400/t w-o-w to INR 58,000/t exy-Mumbai. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
  
  
• In the projects segment, prices were hovering around INR 57,000-57,500/t FOR Mumbai.
  
  

Finished Flat Steel

• Trade-level HRC and CRC prices remained under pressure. The trading community is eagerly anticipating price support from the mills this month and looking for insights on list prices for June. Currently, the trade market is exhibiting a sustained sluggishness primarily influenced by subdued demand.
  
  
• Recent vessel line-up data compiled by BigMint shows India imported bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) of around 236,897 t till 27 May.
  
  
• A significant import deal for 40,000 t of HRC from Vietnam at $592-596/CFR for July shipment was reportedly concluded. Along with a deal from JFE, Japan for 60,000 t at $595-600/CFR Mumbai.
  
  
• Conversely, India's export activity has exhibited signs of slowing down
  
  
• Hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports from India to South-east Asia and the Middle East were at subdued levels for yet another week. Indian steel mills have suspended their HRC export offers (specifically S275, 3mm) to Europe during this period.