Weekly round-up: Global ferrous scrap offers edge up w-o-w despite limited buying across markets

• Turkiye prices up on restocking, rebar demand surge
  
  
• Japan Kanto tender success boosts H2 offers marginally
  
  

This week, global ferrous scrap markets saw mixed trends. Prices in Turkiye and Pakistan showed modest recovery, driven by restocking and pre-holiday demand, while India saw slight increases despite weak domestic steel demand. Vietnam, the UAE, and South Korea experienced price declines due to sluggish demand and weak market sentiment. US export prices rose, supported by improved sentiment, while Japan's H2 offers increased slightly following a strong Kanto tender result.

Turkiye: Turkiye's imported scrap market showed signs of recovery this week after hitting a two-year low. Prices for US-origin HMS (80:20) rose to $347/t CFR, up 3% from $338/t last week. The rebound was driven by increased restocking demand and a surge in rebar sales, which prompted mills to re-enter the market. Optimism was fuelled by expectations of Syrian reconstruction and potential Chinese economic stimulus measures, supporting more positive market sentiment.

Despite price increases, the market remained cautious, with concerns over a potential influx of supply from recyclers at higher prices. Mills faced challenges in sourcing scrap at viable levels. EU-origin HMS (80:20) was assessed at $347/t CFR, while Baltic-origin material ranged from $340-345/t CFR.

Overall, the Turkish market showed a modest recovery, but volatility remains as mills balance the need for restocking with concerns over supply levels and price fluctuations.

India: India's imported scrap market saw subdued activity throughout the week due to weak domestic steel demand, ample inventories, and expectations of further price drops. Early inquiries, spurred by anticipation of potential steel import duties, briefly hinted at improved sentiment but were overshadowed by sluggish finished steel sales and liquidity constraints.

Offers for shredded scrap ranged between $380/t CFR Nhava Sheva (up by $2/t w-o-w), while HMS (80:20) was offered at $360/t CFR (up by $3/t), reflecting slight downward adjustments. Steel mills slashed December rebar list prices, highlighting challenging market conditions, while buyers hesitated on significant purchases, anticipating further declines.

Global factors, such as Turkiye's low scrap prices and moderate policy easing in China, had minimal impact on the Indian market. A cautious sentiment lingered, with hopes pinned on safeguard measures and infrastructure projects to support recovery in 2025.

Approximately 6,000-7,000 t of scrap were booked, including 3,000-3,500 t of shredded scrap from Australia and the US at $370-380/t, HMS from South Africa, West Africa, and the UK at $365-375/t, and PNS from Venezuela at $390/t.

Pakistan: Pakistan's imported scrap market saw a slight 2% increase in shredded scrap prices, rising from $380/t to $388/t CFR Qasim, driven by limited restocking activity ahead of the holidays. However, the market remained cautious due to weak domestic steel demand, with mills operating at reduced capacities. The market remained cautious, with a wait-and-watch approach prevailing as mills dealt with liquidity issues and low construction activity.

Domestic steel prices, including rebar at PKR 240,000-250,000/t ($862-898/t) and local scrap at PKR 140,000-142,000/t ($503-510/t), reflected subdued activity. Many mills continued to face financial strain, leading to minimal buying interest.

Despite this, around 9,000-10,000 t of scrap were booked, with shredded from the UK/Europe priced at $378-390/t, respectively.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh's imported scrap market showed some positive movement this week, with shredded scrap prices rising by 3% to $390/t CFR Chattogram, up from $380/t last week. However, weak steel demand and liquidity challenges continued to limit buyer activity. Offers for HMS ranged from $375-380/t CFR, but demand remained cautious as mills faced financial pressures and slow domestic steel sales.

Despite the uptick in shredded prices, mills struggled with high US dollar exchange rates and limited rebar sales, which kept market activity subdued. Bulk HMS deals from Australia were heard at $350-355/t CFR, while Japanese HS offers were at $370/t CFR, but demand for premium grades remained weak.

South Korea: South Korea's imported scrap market remained weak this week, with declining rebar prices and reduced mill operating rates dampening demand. Major steel mills cut procurement prices by KRW 10,000-15,000/t ($7-$10/t), while inventory adjustments showed mixed trends. Despite high port arrivals, driven by special steel plates, mills remained cautious, with weak product markets keeping new bookings limited.

Japan: Japanese H2 scrap export offers saw a slight increase this week, supported by December's Kanto tender results. The FAS levels remained above last week's FOB levels, with the winning bid settling at $279/t.

However, weak demand in Vietnam and South Korea, along with ample local scrap, limited further price increases. BigMint's assessment of H2 offers increased by $6/t to $283/t. Tokyo Steel also adjusted its procurement prices, dropping $7/t at its Kyushu plant.

Vietnam: Vietnam's imported scrap market remained weak this week, with sluggish steel sales, mill production cuts, and competition from cheaper domestic scrap. Offers for H2 scrap ranged between $330-335/t CFR, while bids stayed below $320/t CFR, reflecting a significant bid-offer gap. High freight costs and muted downstream activity kept buyers on the sidelines, anticipating further price declines.

Taiwan: Feng Hsin Steel, Taiwan's leading rebar producer, maintained its domestic rebar prices at TWD 18,200/t ($561/t) exw and local scrap procurement prices at TWD 8,800/t for 9-13 December. Despite global scrap prices dropping further, US-origin HMS (80:20) to $295/t and Japan-origin H2 to $310/t CFR Taiwan, Taiwanese mills opted to hold prices, anticipating stabilisation after weeks of decline.

UAE: Domestic ferrous scrap prices in the UAE declined by AED 44/t ($12/t) w-o-w, driven by weak global market conditions and sluggish demand from local mills. Prices for processed HMS dropped to AED 1,190-1,195/t ($324-325/t), marking a 10-month low. Export offers also decreased, with limited demand from Bangladesh. The market remains weak, characterized by low trade activity and high inventory levels.

US: The US ferrous scrap export index rose by $8/t, supported by China's easing monetary policy and higher steel billet prices. Despite an initial decline due to scrap surplus and low mill activity, Turkish demand and improved sentiment boosted prices. Domestic US scrap prices dropped, leading to lower export offers at $340-350/t CFR Turkiye.