Weekly round-up: Global ferrous scrap markets see mixed trends amid US election uncertainty

• Imported scrap prices edge up in Bangladesh, Pak, India
  
  
• Turkiye's prices hold firm amid muted demand, weak EUR
  
  

Global ferrous scrap markets showed mixed trends this week, influenced by domestic steel demand, policy shifts, and currency movements. Turkiye's market remained stable, though cautiously optimistic, amid limited demand, while India saw modest gains, driven by rising domestic steel prices and post-festive restocking.

Pakistan and Bangladesh reported slight price increases, though economic and infrastructure challenges limited activity. South Korea and Japan faced softer market conditions, with winter slowing demand and uncertainty following the US election and upcoming tenders. In Vietnam, low trading interest persisted, and the UAE saw minor price adjustments as weaker export demand improved local material availability.

Turkiye: This week, Turkiye's imported scrap market remained stable, with US-origin HMS (80:20) prices holding steady at $362/t CFR. Sellers remained cautiously optimistic, believing prices had reached a local bottom ahead of Turkey's domestic buying period and the US election. However, limited demand and a wide scrap-to-rebar price spread kept price movements constrained.

There was some upward pressure, particularly for UK-origin HMS (80:20), with trades reaching $364/t CFR. However, gains were capped by a weaker euro and subdued demand, especially from Europe. Turkish mills showed less urgency to restock due to sluggish domestic rebar sales, further limiting price increases.

The market softened slightly towards the end of the week, with Baltic-origin scrap closing at $362/t CFR. During the week, around 4-5 bulk mixed scrap cargoes were booked from Europe. US-origin HMS (80:20), shredded, and bonus mixed scrap were offered at $362/t, $382/t, and $382/t CFR Turkiye, respectively.

India: India's imported scrap market saw an overall uptick this week, with shredded prices rising by $3/t or 1% w-o-w to $394/t CFR, and HMS (80:20) scrap from the UK increasing by $3/t to $370/t CFR. Additionally, UK-origin shredded prices rose 3% w-o-w to $397/t CFR. However, bid-offer gaps and post-festive recovery limited demand, with many buyers remaining on the sidelines after the Diwali holiday, particularly at the higher price levels.

The rise in domestic steel prices, coupled with signs of tightening supply, led to stronger demand from primary mills, prompting them to secure larger volumes of scrap. This contributed to slight increases in offers for both shredded and HMS.

Additionally, speculation around potential price movements post-US elections added urgency to material procurement, further lifting offers. HMS (80:20) from UK/Europe and West Africa saw offers rise to $370-375/t CFR, aligning with buyers' shifting needs and an increasingly optimistic market sentiment.

Pakistan: Pakistan's imported scrap market saw a modest uptick this week, with shredded prices rising by $7/t w-o-w to $396/t CFR Qasim from the previous week's $389/t. The increase was supported by a slight improvement in domestic rebar prices and positive policy announcements from the State Bank of Pakistan.

However, overall buying activity remained cautious, as mills were hesitant amid higher offers and a sluggish domestic market, with many operating at reduced capacity.

Domestic steel sales remained steady, with rebar tags stable and scrap prices holding at PKR 148,000-150,000/t. Despite some optimism due to rebar price hikes and potential economic support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and rising remittances, demand for imported scrap remained subdued, as mills continued to have high inventories and battle tighter margins.

Bangladesh: This week, Bangladesh's imported scrap market saw an uptick, with shredded rising by $9/t w-o-w to $401/t CFR Chattogram, and HMS (80:20) from the US up by $2/t to $380/t, despite weak steel demand and ongoing construction disruptions.

The slight price increase was driven by tighter supply and some renewed interest from mills, despite rebar price cuts. However, containerised scrap activity remained limited, with buyers focusing on smaller bulk purchases from nearby regions, particularly Japan and Singapore, which provided support to the market.

The market faced additional challenges due to payment issues, particularly with letters of credit (LC) and a 40-50% drop in rebar demand following the government's pause on infrastructure projects. As a result, mills were left with high scrap inventories, leading to reduced booking activity and further weighing on market sentiment.

South Korea: The South Korean scrap market softened this week as winter slowed construction demand and real estate recovery remained uncertain. South Korean mills bid JPY 51,000/t ($331/t) for Japanese HS scrap, JPY 49,000/t ($318/t) for shredded, and JPY 50,000/t ($324/t) for Shindachi Bara, all prices CFR Korea. Domestic prices for Light A scrap fell to KRW 370,000-375,000/t ($265-268/t), while the Heavy A grade remained stable at KRW 395,000-410,000/t ($283-293/t). The market outlook is cautious, with lower demand expected in the coming months.

Japan: Japanese H2 scrap export prices declined by 4% w-o-w to $291/t FOB this week, driven by weak buying interest from major importing countries. The market remained cautious, with buyers waiting for clearer direction in the aftermath of the US election results and China's stimulus announcement. Additionally, buyers are expected to be on the sidelines until the upcoming Kanto tender on 12 November, which is expected to shape market sentiment in the near term.

Vietnam: Vietnam's scrap market remained quiet in early November, with limited activity and cautious sentiment, as buyers awaited clarity after the US election. Prices of imported Japanese H2 scrap stood at $328-345/t CFR, but buyer interest remained around $340/t, reflecting slow trading.

Domestic scrap prices held steady, with northern Vietnam's Type 1/H2-equivalent scrap at VND 9,000-9,400/kg ($354-370/t) and southern prices at VND 8,500-8,600/kg ($334-338/t). Weak demand from the construction sector and low government investment led to oversupply concerns.

UAE: UAE's domestic ferrous scrap prices saw a small increase of $3/t (AED 12/t) w-o-w, with a $6/t (AED 23/t) rise earlier in the week, followed by a $3/t (AED 12/t) drop towards the weekend. The price decline was driven by weaker export demand.

Trading activity was moderate, with major mills reducing scrap purchase prices for November shipments. This slowdown in exports resulted in better material availability in the domestic market, creating a more favourable environment for sellers.