Weekly round-up: Global ferrous scrap market sees mixed trends

• Sluggish scrap demand in South Asia
  
  
• Turkiye, Japan, US record price surge
  
  

This week, the global scrap market displayed mixed trends across Turkiye, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, and the US.

Turkiye's scrap price index rose by $10/tonne (t) amid steady November demand, though activity slowed later. India's demand weakened due to Navratri and Dussehra festivities, with shredded scrap offers at around $400-405/t. In Pakistan, imported scrap prices increased, but mills hesitated to buy due to weak rebar sales and payment issues. Bangladesh saw higher scrap prices but low demand from halted government projects. Vietnam experienced rising tags for Japanese H2 scrap, while South Korea's market was quiet, with stable prices and reduced rebar production. Japanese export offers surged, and the US had modest price increases after a port strike, with significant exports to Turkiye.

Turkiye: Throughout the week, the Turkish imported bulk scrap price index rose w-0-w, although the market slowed in the latter half of the week, despite steady demand for November shipments. Turkish mills actively sought imported scrap to support domestic rebar sales. Offers remained stable, but supply constraints could have led to further price increases if demand continued to outpace availability. Bulk cargoes were booked from the US at $385-388/t and from Europe at $378/t CFR Turkiye.

A total of 7-8 deals from the US and the EU were reported recently. Although Turkish scrap prices have stabilised, tight supply may weigh down demand, potentially pushing offers higher.

India: This week in India, imported scrap demand slowed, as the market observed Navratri and Dussehra festivities. Buyers adopted a cautious "wait-and-watch" approach due to concerns over price volatility and the sustainability of recent price hikes. Indicative offers for shredded scrap from the US and the UK/Europe were at $400-405/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while HMS (80:20) prices were around $380-385/t CFR. The festive mood resulted in minimal trading activity, with falling domestic scrap prices further contributing to caution.

Some buyers held back due to recent price increases, while others considered bookings to meet pent-up demand ahead of the holidays. As Dussehra approached, business activity slowed, and traders anticipated limited downward price adjustments, particularly influenced by trends in Turkiye.

Pakistan: Imported ferrous scrap offers to Pakistan rose this week, with European shredded at $407/t CFR Qasim, up $7/t. However, mills were hesitant to buy due to weak rebar sales and payment issues. Domestic scrap was available, but invoicing challenges led to slow imports.

Rebar and billet sales were sluggish, with unofficial rebar prices at around PKR 245,000-246,000/t and offers at PKR 250,000-252,000/t. Domestic scrap prices remained stable at PKR 145,000-145,500/t. Re-rollers and melters met to discuss minimum rebar prices and potential production adjustments amid economic uncertainty.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh's imported ferrous scrap prices increased, but demand remained low due to halted government projects, which typically consume significant amounts of domestic steel.

A market representative mentioned that "production is at 60% of capacity, with plans to buy more scrap next month". Current offers for scrap include $415-420/t for shredded from Australia and New Zealand and $390-395/t for HMS (80:20).

Recent transactions featured 1,000 t of Chilean HMS sold at $412/t CFR Chattogram and 700 t of UAE HMS mix PNS at $415/t.

In the domestic market, local scrap was at BDT 52,500-53,000/t, while rebar in Dhaka stood at BDT 80,000-82,000/t.

The ship recycling sector faced challenges due to economic and political turmoil, with transport disruptions exacerbated by flooding. The weakening taka added to the strain, resulting in limited ship arrivals and stagnant plate prices.

Vietnam: Domestic demand for Japanese scrap in Vietnam remained stable, with northern prices for the 3-6 mm variant at VND 9,100-9,700/t ($367-391/t) and southern ones at VND 8,500/t ($342/t). Rebar and billet prices were steady, but steel bar offers increased slightly after a mill's adjustment.

Imported scrap prices rose due to higher offers for Japanese H2 scrap, now at $350-360/t CFR, up by $20-25/t from last week. However, Vietnamese buyers were hesitant, bidding at around $340-345/t. This price increase has made the market cautious.

South Korea: South Korea's imported scrap market was quiet this week, with few offers for Japanese H2 scrap after a price hike in the Kanto tender. Mills showed limited interest, bidding around JPY 47,000/t for shredded scrap and JPY 48,000/t for HMS scrap. Domestically, Light A and Heavy A scrap prices remained stable at KRW 410,000/t ($299-$310/t) and KRW 430,000/t. However, mills reduced rebar production to a 28.2% non-operation ratio due to high inventory and weaker demand, raising expectations of downward pressure on scrap prices.

Japan: Japanese H2 scrap export offers jumped sharply this week, driven by a nearly JPY 3,000/t increase in the monthly Kanto tender. A Vietnamese mill booked a 15,000 t cargo at JPY 45,680/t ($308/t) FAS, up JPY 2,960/t from September. The price rise is linked to the depreciation of the JPY and a halt in cheaper billet exports from China. However, market participants are cautious about the sustainability of these prices, as Chinese steel futures and spot offers remain low without new stimulus support.

US: The US ferrous scrap export index rose modestly this week, with East Coast HMS prices up $3/t to $359/t and shredded scrap at $379/t. Domestic prices firmed up after a port worker strike, increasing $15-20/t in some regions, though demand remained weak in Chicago and Detroit. In Turkiye, mills actively booked US scrap, but prices above $385/t faced resistance. Bangladesh's demand was slow due to low steel sales and economic challenges.

Additionally, in August, US scrap exports reached 1.59 million tonnes (mnt), up 28% from July, with Turkiye as the largest buyer, importing 578,000 t.