Weekly round-up: Global, domestic base metals markets witness positive trends

At the close of trading on Friday, 27 September 2024, base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed positive trends barring copper. Nickel recorded the largest gain in terms of prices, increasing by 5.86%. Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks exhibited negative trends, except nickel which rose 1.26%.

On the LME, three-month aluminium futures increased by 0.26% to $2,653/tonne (t), and nickel prices were up by 5.86%, settling at $17,992/t. Copper prices were at $9,943/t, down by 0.39%, while zinc increased by 2.49% to $3,166/t. Lead climbed by 1.42% to $2,149/t.

Aluminium

Imported aluminium prices rise: Imported aluminium scrap offers into India fluctuated by up to 4% w-o-w. This is because aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit a 4-month high, following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and China's new monetary stimulus and support for the property market. According to BigMint's benchmark assessments tense from the UAE was priced at $1,760/t, down by 3.8% w-o-w, while zorba 95/5 from the UK was at $2,050/t, both CFR west coast, India.

Domestic scrap: In the domestic market, tense scrap prices remained marginally stable w-o-w in both Delhi and Chennai. According to BigMint's assessment, domestic tense scrap prices are now at INR 175,500/t ex-Delhi-NCR and INR 176,500/t ex-Chennai.

Aluminium ADC12 (non-OEM) remains range-bound: Spot prices of aluminium ADC12 alloyed ingots in the domestic market remained range-bound w-o-w in both the northern and southern regions of the country, pressured by week demand and stable domestic raw material costs.

BigMint's benchmark assessments for ADC12 (non-OEM) grade stood at INR 207,000/t in Delhi and INR 209,000/t in Chennai, showing minimal change w-o-w.

Japan's imports of secondary aluminium alloy ingots (ADC12) dropped 5% in August 2024 compared to the previous month, totalling 90,895 t.

Copper

Imported scrap prices trend upward: According to BigMint, talk originating from the US was assessed at $5,200/t, while that from the Middle East was priced at $4,950/t, both up by up to 4.2% w-o-w and CFR west coast, India. Offers from Columbia were at 52.75% of the LME price CFR Chennai.

The Japan Copper Stretching Association recently released its medium-term forecast for copper demand till the financial year 2026 (FY'26). The average growth rate for the last four years to FY'26 is 3.4%. Demand is projected to reach 700,000 t in FY'26.

Domestic prices edge higher: Domestic copper armature scrap prices increased to INR 772,000/t exy-Delhi. Meanwhile, secondary copper rod prices were at INR 827,000/t.

Zinc, lead

India's domestic zinc and lead ingot prices increased by up to INR 2,500/t ($30/t) w-o-w, following a rise in LME futures of up to 3% and aligning with Hindustan Zinc Limited's (HZL) price increase for zinc and lead by up to 6%. Zinc prices stood at INR 290,500/t ($3,459/t), while remelted lead ingot was assessed at INR 183,000/t ex-Delhi.

Imported prices rise: Middle East zinc diecast prices stood at $2,160/t CFR Mundra, up by 1.4%.

China base metals market

China's non-ferrous metals domestic market remained closed due to National Holidays (Golden Week Festival).

Global updates

Hindustan Zinc posts highest-ever production in Q2FY'25

Hindustan Zinc reported its highest-ever production numbers for Q2 and H1 ending on 30 September 2024 of FY'25. Refined zinc production in Q2FY'25 stood at 198,000 t, up 7% compared to 185,000 t in Q2FY'24 and up by 4% in H1FY'25. Additionally, refined lead production was recorded at 63,000 t, increasing by 12% and 7% compared to Q2 FY'24 and H1 FY'24, respectively.

Rising zinc, lead demand in India

India's zinc and lead demand is projected to grow in 2024 and 2025, driven by increases in construction and automotive sectors. Global zinc demand may exceed supply by 164,000 t in 2024, while lead supply will surpass demand. Notably, zinc usage in India is expected to rise amid declining European demand and fluctuating production in other regions.

Global copper production increases in 2024

Global refined copper production rose by 5.8% in early 2024, driven by China and the DRC, which together account for 54% of output. China's production increased by 7%, while the DRC saw an 18% rise. In contrast, Chile and the EU reported declines. Global copper mine production also increased by 3%, aided by recoveries in various regions.