Weekly round-up: Global, domestic base metal prices witness downtrend

• Base metals prices show downward trends
  
  
• Japanese aluminium premium hits highest level since CY'15
  
  

At close of trading on Friday, 20 December 2024, base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a downtrend, with nickel decreasing by 4.72% w-o-w. Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks also exhibited negative trends, with zinc showing the highest decline of 5.89% w-o-w.

On the LME, three-month aluminium stood at $2,534/tonne (t), dropping by 2.73%, while nickel prices decreased by 4.72% w-o-w to $15,113/t. Copper prices were at $8,941/t, down by 1.23% w-o-w, while zinc decreased by 3.51% w-o-w to $2,967/t. Lead dropped by 1.49% w-o-w to $1,980/t.

Aluminium

• Imported aluminium scrap prices range-bound: Imported aluminium scrap prices in India remained range-bound w-o-w, with fluctuations of up to 1.5%, amid moderate demand. Despite a decline in London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices, certain scrap grades held firm w-o-w amid reports of supply shortages.
  
  
• BigMint's benchmark assessment for Tense scrap originating from the UAE stood at $1,800/t, firm w-o-w, while Zorba 95/5 from the UK was at $2,110/t, stable w-o-w, both CFR west coast, India.
  
  
• ADC12 non-OEM prices remain stable: Prices of aluminium (non-OEM) ADC12 alloyed ingots remained stable w-o-w across both northern and southern regions in India, largely due to ongoing sluggish demand in the automotive sector and a weakened export market.The scrap-to-semi-finished spread for ADC12 non-OEM remained steady at INR 28,000-29,000/t w-o-w.
  
  

BigMint's weekly assessments for ADC12 (non-OEM) grade stood at INR 202,000/t in Delhi and INR 203,000/t in Chennai, stable w-o-w.

Additionally, a leading automobile manufacturer reduced its ADC12 prices for January 2025 settlements by INR 1,000/t, setting at INR 208,000/t-the lowest level in 10 months. The last comparable price was recorded in March 2024. The reduction reflects weak demand in the automotive sector.

Copper

• Imported, domestic copper prices drop w-o-w: Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 734,000/t ex-Delhi, dropped by INR 6,000/t w-o-w, while imported copper motors mix scrap stood at $1,130/t CFR Mundra, down by $20/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were assessed at INR 784,000/t ex-Delhi, down by INR 4,000/t. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices stood at INR 810,000/t, down by INR 2,000/t w-o-w.
  
  

Zinc fell

Domestic zinc ingot prices stood at INR 284,000/t, dropped by 4.4% as compared to last week's INR 297,000/t. Hindustan Zinc (HZL) trimmed zinc ingot prices by INR 6,800/t to INR 304,800/t ex-Jodhpur.

Lead stable

Domestic lead primary ingots stood at INR 193,000/t and remelted ingots at INR 176,000/t, remained stable compared to last week. Additionally, HZL's lead ingot prices were reduced by INR 1,700/t to INR 199,600/t ex-Jodhpur.

Chinese base metals market overview

In the week ending 20 December, deliverable base metals inventories at the warehouses registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchanges (SHFE) displayed a down trend, except nickel showing an inflow of 2.0% w-o-w to 35,390 t, according to the exchange's weekly stock report.

Market updates

• Japanese aluminium premium for Q1'25 reaches decadal high: Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed on a premium of $228/t over the LME benchmark price for Q1 2025 shipments, a 30% increase from the previous quarter. This is the highest premium since 2015, slightly below initial offers of $230-260/t. The rise reflects tight aluminium supply, policy changes in China, and reduced global production.
  
  
• Aluminium demand set to surge 40% by 2030: Global aluminium demand is projected to rise by 40% by 2030, driven by growth in transportation, construction, and packaging sectors. A supply deficit of 412,000 tonnes is anticipated by 2025, impacted by China's production restrictions and export tax adjustments.