Weekly round-up: Global billet price trends (Week 42, 2024)

The global billet market remained dull this week amid weak buying interest. Market participants remained cautious and limited buying interest was seen due to high prices of semi-finished steel and weak fundamentals in the long steel sector. However, an export tender was concluded from Iran for end-November 2024 shipment.

Turkish mills highlighted the "normalisation" of scrap prices as being inevitable due to weaker-than-anticipated domestic demand for finished steel, particularly exports. Despite increased dockside scrap inflows in Europe, short-sea market constraints prevented a steep price drop.

As Turkish mills struggle with declining rebar sales and discounts, they continue to push for better scrap pricing. Sources inform that mills still require additional cargoes for November shipments, so activity is expected to persist. However, many suppliers remain cautious, holding off on firm offers as they believe the downward trend may be limited. According to BigMint's assessment, US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap prices stood at $371/t CFR, down $17/t w-o-w.

Market highlights:

• SE Asia billet prices edge down w-o-w: The Southeast Asian billet market remained sluggish this week. Meanwhile, billet offers in the SE Asian market were heard at around $490-495/t CFR, with bids hovering around $480/t CFR Manila. As per BigMint's bi-weekly assessment, prices of billets (150 x 150 mm, 3SP) imported by the Philippines declined $10/t w-o-w, reaching $485/t CFR Manila on 18 October.
  
  
• Vietnam's billet export offers stable: Vietnam's blast furnace (BF)-grade billet export offers remained stable w-o-w at $500/t FOB.
  
  
• Thailand's billet import offers were recorded at $500-510/t CFR, down $10/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Iran concludes export tender: An Iranian steel mill concluded an export tenders for 30,000 t each of billet at $466/t FOB, as per sources. The shipment is scheduled for end-November. Prices have increased by about $1/t w-o-w. Notably, Iran's semi-finished steel exports in H1 of the current Persian year (21 March-20 September) stood at 2.77 mnt, a decrease of 25% y-o-y, according to data from the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA). Iranian billet prices stood at $466/t today, inching up by $1/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Chinese billet prices fall w-o-w: Billet prices in Tangshan fell RMB 130/t ($18/t) to RMB 3,070/t ($432/t) on 18 October against 11 October. Prices include 13% VAT. Negative market sentiments driven by raw material costs, sluggish finished steel sentiments along with weak export market has put pressure on billet prices. Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures (January 2025 delivery) dropped by INR 132/t ($19/t) to RMB 3,336/t ($470/t) today against 11 October.