Weekly round-up: Global base metal prices decline barring lead; Indian market displays diverging trends

London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals prices, excluding lead, experienced a decline during the week ending on Friday, 5 January, at the conclusion of trading.

Three-month aluminium futures on the LME inched down by 4.7% to $2,273/tonne (t), while nickel settled at $16,372/t (down 1.4%). Copper prices were at $8,463/t and zinc dipped by 3.6% to 2,562/t. Conversely, lead prices gained marginally by 0.4% to $2,076/t.

LME-registered warehouse stocks displayed varied trends, notably with lead witnessing the most significant outflow, decreasing by approximately 6% w-o-w.

In the Indian non-ferrous metals segment, contrasting patterns emerged as imported scrap for aluminium in the western region saw lack of firm offers due to New Year holidays. Material from the Middle East showed diverse trends for aluminium, copper, and zinc. The domestic aluminium market displayed mixed trends, copper prices experienced a slight dip, zinc remained within a range, and lead prices witnessed marginal declines.

Aluminium

During the week, primary aluminium ingot (P1020) prices dropped in the spot market, followed by price cuts by major primary players.

Aluminium ADC12 alloy spot prices rose by INR 5,500/t to INR 189,500/t due to higher Tense prices. Imported scrap prices are slowly increasing amid limited offers during the Christmas/New Year holidays. Middle East and Africa offers rose by $60-70/t due to ample future bookings. In China, Silicon metals prices surged, impacting ADC12 prices ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.

Imported aluminium scrap prices in India have remained mute, lacking firm offers particularly from the western region post the New Year holidays. Despite this, transaction volume has increased, notably from the Middle East, where offer prices have risen by up to $45/t due to inactivity among western region sellers.

Indian domestic aluminium scrap prices increased slightly, influenced by a significant rise in imported prices. The domestic market, heavily reliant on imports and price trends, experienced low scrap supply during winter. Aligning with market dynamics, recyclers and traders adjusted prices.

Copper

Copper prices in the domestic market decreased by 0.5% w-o-w. In Delhi, secondary rod and copper armature scrap were priced at INR 720,000/t and INR 678,000/t ex-works, respectively.

India's imported copper scrap prices showed mixed trends. Mixed motor scrap prices from the US increased by 1.3% to $1,145/t. Bid-offer disparity of $50-$60 was seen, prompting buyers to wait for potential price drop. Middle East-origin brass honey scrap prices fell by 1.2% to $5,420/t CIF Mundra.

MCX copper prices recorded a 1% w-o-w decrease, dropping from INR 732,000/t to INR 725,000/t. Likewise, COMEX copper prices saw a 2% decline to $8,359/t compared to the previous week, inline with the domestic market.

Zinc and lead

India's zinc prices were steady at INR 235,000/t, exw-Delhi, despite HZL's marginal w-o-w decrease. Conversely, remelted lead ingots dipped 0.6% to INR 177,000/t, exw-Delhi, mirroring a 0.6% HZL price adjustment. Sluggish market demand and limited trade activities were reported. In imports, Middle East zinc diecast (5%) rose $20/t to $1,960/t, CIF Mundra.

Additionally, South Korea's zinc and lead semi-finish exports decline 26% m-o-m in November 2023 with India being the top importer followed by China.

Price revision update

Meanwhile, primary aluminium producer, Balco, has reduced prices today for aluminium ingot (P1020, 99.7%) by INR 2,000/t as against the last revision. After revision, Balco's prices are at INR 217,500/t. All prices are ex-works and exclude GST.

Recent deals

• 100 t of Middle east origin aluminium telic scrap was traded at $1,525/t, CIF Kolkata.
  
  
• Around 50 t of Indonesia-origin refined lead ingots were traded at $2,180/t, CIF Kolkata
  
  
• A recent 15 t zinc ingot (99.9%) deal was heard at INR 238,000/t, exw-Delhi.
  
  
• About 5 containers of Middle East talk scrap was heard at 3M (49.3), CIF West Coast, India.
  
  
• 20 t of aluminium secondary finished wire rod were sold at INR 206,000/t, ex-Delhi.
  
  
• Recent deal for 25 t of domestic silicon 553 was heard at INR 190,000/t, ex-Chennai.
  
  

Global updates

• Aluminium Bahrain (Alba), a global aluminium smelter, achieved a record production of 1,620,665 t in 2023, a 1.3% y-o-y increase from 2022.
  
  
• Vedanta reports increases up to 27% y-o-y in Q3FY24's base metal production with copper cathode increasing by 27%, refined lead up by 21%, alumina and aluminium gained by 6% each.
  
  
• The global manufacturing sector wrapped up 2023 on a subdued note, highlighted by the Eurozone experiencing its 18th consecutive month of contraction in December. Across Asia, factory activity encountered hurdles, witnessing declines in South Korea and Taiwan, while China exhibited mixed signals.