Weekly round-up: Domestic semi-finished steel prices edge down w-o-w amid soft demand

• PELLEX, decreases by INR 50/t w-o-w
  
  
• HRC, CRC prices remain steady w-o-w
  
  

The domestic steel market witnessed largely negative trends during week 3 (13-18 January) of CY'25. Semi-finished steel prices fell by INR 100-500/tonne (t) due to soft demand.

Iron ore, pellet

• Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auctioned approximately 2.667 million tonnes (mnt) of iron ore, (1.078 mnt of lumps and 1.589 mnt of fines) on 17 January. Following the positive response from steelmakers, around 1.493 mnt (94%) fines and the entire quantity of lumps was sold at INR 2,550-8,800/tonne (t). However, bids (weighted average) decreased by around INR 250/t against last month's auction for fines and lumps. The miner had raised base prices by INR 100-150/t m-o-m.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index, PELLEX, decreased by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 9,400/t DAP Raipur on 10 January 2025. Raipur-based pellet producers kept their offers unchanged, and deals for around 60,000 t of pellets were recorded over the week.
  
  
• BigMint's bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $6/t w-o-w to $66/t FOB east coast, India, on 16 January 2025. Deals for around 165,000 t were confirmed in this publishing window at $74-76/t CFR China. Market sources said deals were concluded at a 17.5-19% discount on the global fines index, and negotiations are underway for additional transactions.
  
  
• BigMint's India pellet (Fe 63%, 3% Al) export index (FOB east coast) rose by $9/t w-o-w to $103/t on 17 January. Recently, a domestic pellet maker concluded a deal for around 50,000 t of pellets (Fe 63%, 8% Sl2O3+SiO2) through an export tender at $109-110/t FOB India. Some more deals were also closed, as indicated through coastal movements in the export and domestic markets.
  
  

Coal

• India's portside prices of South African thermal coal dipped slightly this week amid lower sponge iron prices and high port inventories. RB2 (5500 NAR) prices edged down by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 8,850/t, while RB3 (4800 NAR) prices stayed stable at INR 7,300/t, both ex-Gangavaram. Reduced sponge iron production and abundant domestic coal supplies contributed to weak buying interest, maintaining downward pressure on prices.
  
  
• Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports increased by 2% to 14.22 million tonnes (mnt) in week 2 of CY'25 from 13.93 mnt in week 1, according to BigMint's data.
  
  

Ferrous scrap

• India's imported scrap market remained subdued throughout the week, weighed down by sluggish demand amid a downturn in the domestic steel sector. Bid-offer mismatches were a key hurdle, with suppliers quoting shredded from the US and UK/Europe at $370-375/t CFR Nhava Sheva, while buyers capped bids at $365-370/t CFR. Similarly, HMS (80:20) offers from Europe and West Africa at $350-360/t CFR failed to attract significant buyer interest, leading to limited transactions.
  
  
• The depreciating Indian rupee, nearing a record low against the USD, further escalated import costs, discouraging buyers. Domestic buyers increasingly turned to locally sourced sponge iron as a cost-effective alternative, adding to the challenges in the imported scrap market. With weak steel demand and unfavourable economic conditions, India saw minimal participation in the imported scrap market, effectively staying out of action for the week.
  
  
• Additionally, India's government has introduced an 8% threshold for automakers under the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) to ensure recycled content in products, which promises to boost scrap generation and vehicle recycling. With 138 Registered Vehicle Scrapping Facilities (RVSFs) and the upcoming 2025 EPR rules, India aims to foster a self-sustaining scrap steel economy and promote sustainability.
  
  
• Approximately 1,000-2,000 t of scrap were booked, including 700-800 t of HMS (80:20) from the UK and US at $350-355/t. Additionally, 250-500 t of HMS and CI mix scrap were booked from West Africa at $250/t.
  
  

Ferro alloys

• Silico manganese: Domestic silico manganese prices saw a slight dip of INR 260/t ($3/t) to INR 69,300-70,500/t ($800-814/t) in key regions. However, a few deals were concluded at higher prices due to limited supplies. Meanwhile, silico manganese export prices were firm w-o-w, supported by the depreciating rupee and increased inquiries.
  
  
• Ferro manganese: Indian ferro manganese (HC 70%) prices remained stable at INR 73,700/t ($857/t) exw in Raipur and INR 73,400/t ($853/t) exw in Durgapur. Price stability is attributed to fluctuating steel prices and limited supplies in the region.
  
  
• Ferro silicon: Indian ferro silicon prices moved down slightly by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 103,600/t ($1,197/t) exw-Guwahati. Prices were largely unchanged, as routine trades were carried out in the market, mostly at this month's announced offers from Bhutan. For bulk bookings, some relaxation was offered in prices, but the market largely remained steady.
  
  
• Ferro chrome: Indian high-carbon ferro chrome (HC60%, Si: 4%) prices were steady w-o-w at INR 98,800/t ($1,141/t) exw-Jajpur. The market was mostly muted last week, as most participants awaited OMC's chrome ore auction results.

  At OMC's chrome ore auction, 59,100 t were sold out of the 76,900 t offered. Prices for most grades fell by 4-7% (INR 801-1,306/t) m-o-m, while tags of higher grades (48-54+%) rose a sizeable 29-39% (INR 7,237-7,785/t).
  
  

Semi-finished

• Indian semi-finished steel prices witnessed largely negative trends, as per BigMint's assessment. Domestic billet prices declined by INR 100-500/t w-o-w, with a major decline of INR 400-500/t recorded in the Gujarat and Chennai regions.? Meanwhile, sponge iron prices declined by INR 50-200/t across all key locations in the country, except Ramgarh, where tags increased by INR 200/t.?
  
  
• SAIL-BSP held an auction for 9,880 t of steel-grade pig iron on 13 January 2025, in which the entire quantity was booked at an average price of INR 31,600/t exw. In the previous auction, conducted on 16 December 2024, the entire volume on offer - 4,900 t - was booked at an average price of INR 31,150/t exw.
  
  
• Indian direct reduced iron (DRI) export offers for Nepal increased by $4/t w-o-w to $341/t CPT Raxaul, while offers for Bangladesh stood stable at $340/t CPT Benapole.
  
  

Finished long steel

• IF rebar: India's induction furnace (IF) route finished long steel prices fluctuated w-o-w. Limited trading activities were witnessed in the market, though the degree varied regionally. Buying interest remained subdued owing to a lack of clarity on market trends. Sellers offered attractive discounts to liquidate material, but buyers opted for need-based procurement only. Certain markets also faced liquidity issues, which exerted further pressure. Additionally, suppliers in certain regions encountered inventory pressure, as stocks were slightly higher than the average 8-10 days.
  
  
• On a w-o-w basis, rebar prices fluctuated by INR 100-800/t across regions, as per BigMint's assessment.
  
  
• The trade reference price of Fe 500 grade rebar manufactured via the IF route for 10-25 mm size was assessed at INR 41,100-41,500/t exw-Raipur and INR 46,000-46,600/t exw-Jalna.
  
  
• The trade reference price of heavy structural steel for base size 150 mm channel stood at INR 43,500-43,800/t exw-Raipur.
  
  
• The trade reference price of wire rods hovered at INR 42,500-43,000/t ex-Raipur.
  
  
• BF rebar: Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices exhibited a downtrend w-o-w, owing to subdued domestic demand. Buyers moved to the sidelines and adopted a wait-and-watch approach due to uncertainty in market direction. Rebar prices (12-32 mm) in the trade segment dropped by INR 300/t w-o-w to INR 52,200/t exy-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.
  
  
• In the project segment, prices hovered at around INR 49,500-50,500/t FOR Mumbai.
  
  

Flat steel

• India's prices of steel hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) remained steady w-o-w at INR 46,500-48,600/t ($642-679/t) and INR 53,500-57,000/t ($703-762/t), respectively, across all markets.

  The recent price increases implemented by steel mills for January 2025 were not absorbed by the market, with actual tags remaining below mills' quotes. Limited demand exerted pressure on market participants and prompted sellers to make greater efforts to drive sales. Even the festive period, characterised by market closures for celebrations, resulted in sluggish activity.
  
  

• Import, export trends: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates stood at 189,176 t till 16 January 2025, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. It is expected that an additional 120,772 t will be imported by the month-end.
  
  
• India's HRC export offers to Europe and the Middle East remained stable w-o-w but faced challenges competing with aggressive pricing from Chinese suppliers. In contrast, Chinese HRC export offers declined across major markets, including the Middle East and Vietnam, due to increasing pricing pressures and weakening demand.
  
  
• Additionally, India's HRC exports to Europe continued to exhibit sluggish activity. Indian mills are not actively offering HRCs to the EU market, with the latest indicative offers for S275, 3 mm material at approximately $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB east coast India).