Weekly round-up: Base metals prices in India witness marginal variations

At close of trading on Friday, 22 November 2024, base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed mixed trends with lead increasing by 3.32%. Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks mostly exhibited positive trends, with nickel increasing by 48.62%.

On the LME, three-month aluminium futures decreased by 0.94% to $2,624/tonne (t), while nickel prices rising by 2.77% to $15,970/t. Copper prices were at $8,968/t, down 0.38%, while zinc increased 0.64% to $2,966/t. Lead rose by 3.32% to $2,022/t.

Lead inventories at LME warehouses surged to 276,250 t, an 11-year high, last seen in March'13, driven by a 49% increase in just days days. This sudden spike is linked to imminent November contract expiries and large short positions which have resulted in strategic accumulation in the new Singapore warehouse.

India's domestic base metals market witnessed a slight uptick aligning with global base metals price trends. Meanwhile, trade activities remained low amid weak demand and need-based buying as the yearend approaches.

Imported aluminium prices edge up

• This week, the Indian imported aluminium scrap market saw an uptick in activity, leading to higher offers amid increasing LME levels, as demand edged up.
  
  
• Imported aluminium scrap prices in India edged higher by up to 1.7% w-o-w. BigMint's benchmark assessment for tense scrap originating from the UAE stood at $1,800/t, up by $30/t w-o-w, while, zorba 95/5 from the UK stood at $2,110/t, up $10/t, both CFR west coast, India.
  
  
• BigMint's benchmark assessments for ADC12 (non-OEM) grade stood at INR 201,000/t in Delhi and INR 203,000/t in Chennai, up by INR 1,000/t ($12/t) w-o-w.
  
  
• In the domestic market, tense scrap prices edged up by INR 1,000/t w-o-w in both Delhi and Chennai. According to BigMint's assessment, domestic tense scrap stood at INR 173,000/t ex-Delhi NCR and INR 174,000/t ex-Chennai.
  
  
• India's aluminium scrap imports dipped 6% to 1.45 million tonnes (mnt) over January-October, 2024 (10MCY'24) compared to 1.54 mnt seen in the corresponding period of last year (CPLY). On a m-o-m basis, volumes remained flat at 156,486 tonnes (t).
  
  

Copper remains firm

• Domestic copper armature prices were assessed at INR 753,000/t ex-Delhi, firm w-o-w, while copper motors mix scrap prices increased by 2.7% w-o-w.
  
  
• Prices of secondary continuously cast rods (CCR) (99.90%) were at INR 798,000/t ex-Delhi, marginally stable w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CCR prices stood at INR 810,000/t, stable w-o-w.
  
  
• Copper scrap imports declined m-o-m, dropping from 32,770 t in September 2024 to 27,995 t in October 2024, representing a decrease of approximately 15%.
  
  

Zinc records slight drop

• Domestic zinc ingot prices stood at INR 286,000/t, remained marginally stable w-o-w. Hindustan Zinc (HZL) increased zinc prices by INR 500/t ($10/t) to INR 296,300/t ($3,508/t).
  
  

Lead remains largely stable

• Domestic lead primary ingots stood at INR 194,000/t and remelted ingots at INR 179,000/t, with a slight drop of 0.5% compared to last week. Additionally, HZL's lead prices stood at INR 198,000/t ($2,344/t) ex-Jodhpur, a drop of INR 2,300/t ($27/t).
  
  

China base metals market overview

• In the week ending 22 November, deliverable base metals stocks in the warehouses registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) displayed downtrends, except zinc showing the inflow of 2.4% w-o-w to 31,194/t, according to the exchange's weekly stocks report.
  
  

Global updates

• Global refined copper production rises 4% in Jan-Sep'24: ICSG - Global refined copper production grew by 4.1% in the first nine months of 2024, driven by strong performances in China and the DRC, which accounted for 54% of global output. Primary and secondary production increased by 4%.
  
  
• Global aluminium production increases over 3% m-o-m in October: IAI - According to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global aluminium production totalled 6.221 mnt in October, up 3.5% from 6.007 mnt in Sep'24 and 2% from 6.12 mnt in October. Notably, China's output stood at 3.72 mnt, up 3% from the previous month.