Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (Week 49, 2024)

Market sentiment for both Indonesian and South African thermal coal remains stable, amid limited trading activity and cautious demand. Domestic coal prices in India have softened, driven by weak bids and subdued market conditions. At the same time, portside coal stocks have been gradually increasing, reflecting steady supply. On the met coke front, domestic prices remain under pressure and Chinese met coke offers are likely to witness another round of cuts next week.

Portside prices of Indonesian thermal coal stable w-o-w

Portside prices of Indonesian thermal coal in India remained largely stable this week, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the lack of urgency in concluding deals. 3400 GAR coal prices at Navlakhi remained steady at INR 4,750/t, while 4200 GAR at Kandla dropped by INR 50/t to INR 5,900/t. In Vizag, 4200 GAR prices were stable at INR 5,850/t, and 5000 GAR at Kandla fell by INR 50/t to INR 7,900/t. Demand remained moderate, with Indian power plants and industries mainly relying on domestic coal, keeping trade activity subdued.

Portside South African thermal coal prices steady w-o-w

Portside prices of South African thermal coal remained stable this week, with RB2 (5500 NAR) coal priced at INR 9,500/t, while RB3 (4800 NAR) saw a slight increase of INR 200/t to INR 7,800/t ex-Gangavaram due to higher offers from suppliers. Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports rose by 3% to 12.74 million tonnes (mnt) in week 48, continuing the trend of increasing inventories. South African indexed prices for RB3 and RB2 were unchanged at $69.5/t and $88.5/t FOB, respectively. The market remains range-bound, with limited demand for RB3 unless prices are further adjusted.

Domestic coal prices fall w-o-w on weak bids, muted activity

Domestic coal prices in India declined this week due to reduced market activity and lower auction bids. BigMint assessed 4500 GCV coal at INR 5,000/t, marking a decrease of INR 500/t w-o-w, while 5000 GCV prices dropped INR 350/t to INR 6,450/t, both exw-Bilaspur. The correction follows steady pricing trends noted in the previous week.

Met coke prices steady amid weak demand, imported offers gain

India's domestic met coke prices remained largely unchanged w-o-w, reflecting subdued market sentiment. BigMint assessed 25-90 mm BF-grade met coke at INR 32,700/t ($386/t) exw-Jajpur, while prices in Gandhidham fell slightly by INR 100/t to INR 29,400/t ($347/t). Low trading activity and tepid demand continued to exert pressure on domestic pricing. Imported met coke offers to India dropped further, with recent Indonesian offers at $275-280/t CFR. A 50,000 t deal was finalised at $280/t CFR, highlighting the growing preference for imports over domestic procurement due to competitive pricing. Meanwhile, Chinese steel mills are reportedly considering a fourth round of coke price cuts amid weak steel prices and sluggish winter demand, intensifying cost-control measures.

India's imported pet coke prices rise by $1/t w-o-w

Imported pet coke prices in India have climbed by $1/t w-o-w, with CFR prices now at $101-103/t for the west coast and $103-105/t for the east coast, compared to last week's $100-102/t and $102-104/t. Increased demand from cement manufacturers since November and deals at $104/t have led sellers to raise offers, anticipating consistent buying.

Major Indian refineries lift pet coke offers for December

• RIL has raised pet coke prices to INR 12,323/t for December, reflecting an increase of INR 686/t from November's INR 11,637/t.
  
  
• CPCL: Prices rose by INR 560/t to INR 12,600/t ex-Chennai, with road-based dispatches to Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh averaging 40,000-45,000 t monthly.
  
  
• MRPL: Increased road prices to INR 9,830/t and rail/barge prices to INR 9,530/t, maintaining a INR 300/t logistics-based differential.
  
  
• Nayara Energy: Prices rose by INR 690/t to INR 12,727/t ex-refinery, INR 404/t higher than RIL's prices.
  
  

India: Coal vessel freight rates soften w-o-w as Baltic index drops

Coal vessel freight rates in India declined this week amid reduced Pacific trading activity. The Baltic Dry Index fell 183 points to 1,354, reflecting weaker vessel demand. Freights on key routes saw mixed trends. Australia-India rates dropped $0.4/t to $14.2/t. South Africa-India rates increased by $0.25/t to $13/t, while Indonesia-India rates declined $0.12/t to $11.2/t.