Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (Week 48, 2024)

The coal markets are generally subdued, with stable or weak prices observed in multiple regions. In India, both imported and domestic coal prices are stable, reflecting a balance between steady supply and muted demand. The increase in portside stocks suggests that supply is adequate, but industrial demand remains lacklustre.

Imported pet coke prices saw a slight rise, driven by expectations of consistent demand. On the other hand, coal vessel freights have declined due to weak market sentiment and lower bunker prices, compounded by excess tonnage supply. The overall outlook points to limited price movement, with market participants cautiously navigating the slow demand environment.

India: Portside Indonesian thermal coal prices stable

Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports remained steady this week due to ample supply and weak demand. Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports rose 4.3% w-o-w to 12.36 mnt in week 47. Prices of 3400 GAR at Navlakhi stood at INR 4,750/t, while 4200 GAR remained unchanged at INR 5,950/t at Kandla and INR 5,850/t at Vizag. High-CV (5000 GAR) offers held firm at INR 7,950/t at Kandla and INR 7,800/t at Vizag.

South African thermal coal prices stable amid weak demand

South African RB2 (5500 NAR) and RB3 (4800 NAR) thermal coal prices held steady w-o-w at INR 9,500/t and INR 7,600/t, respectively, ex-Gangavaram. Limited imports of RB3 were noted due to higher demand for RB2, with a recent Panamax deal at $91/t FOB from RBCT. Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports rose 4.3% w-o-w to 12.36 mnt, while RB3 FOB prices remained stable at $70/t. The market outlook suggests limited price movement due to high port stocks and muted demand.

Domestic coal prices stable w-o-w amid steady demand

India's domestic coal prices remained unchanged this week after a cumulative drop of INR 400-500/t following SECL's 19 Nov auction. BigMint's assessment placed 4500 GCV coal at INR 5,500/t and 5000 GCV coal at INR 6,800/t exw-Bilaspur. Prices held steady despite variations in auctioned coal volumes over the past week.

Met coke prices steady w-o-w amid subdued demand

India's domestic met coke prices remained stable due to weak trading activity. BF-grade (25-90 mm) was assessed at INR 32,700/t ($387/t) exw-Jajpur and INR 29,500/t ($349/t) exw-Gandhidham. Meanwhile, in China, coking coal price softness may prompt mills to attempt a fourth price cut, though resistance from cokeries nearing break-even levels could limit reductions.

Imported pet coke prices increase by $2/t w-o-w

Imported pet coke prices in India (6.5% S) climbed by $2/t week-on-week. CFR prices for the west coast were recorded at $100-102/t, while the east coast prices reached $102-104/t, compared to $98-100/t and $100-102/t, respectively, last week. Sellers raised offers amid expectations of consistent demand in the upcoming weeks.

Coal vessel freights decline w-o-w on bearish market trends

India's coal vessel freights fell this week due to weak market sentiment and declining bunker prices. Elevated tonnage supply in the Pacific further pressured rates. Freights from Hay Point to Paradip dropped to $14.6/dmt, while South Africa's RBCT to Paradip fell $0.35/t to $12.75/t. Indonesia's East Kalimantan to Paradip rates declined slightly to $11.32/t. Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports rose 4.3% w-o-w to 12.36 mnt. The Baltic indices reflected reduced vessel demand, with the Baltic Dry Index dropping 248 points to 1,537.