Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 47, 2024)

Portside South African coal prices dipped amid weak domestic steel prices, while Indian coal prices fell by up to INR 500/t ($6) following SECL's auction. Domestic met coke prices softened w-o-w due to weak sentiment and global trends, while imported met coke prices remained steady. In contrast, imported pet coke prices edged up despite subdued market activity.

Portside South African coal prices dip - BigMint's latest assessment shows that portside prices of South African thermal coal edged down w-o-w. RB2 (5500 NAR) was assessed at INR 9,500 per tonne (t). Buyers preferred being on the sidelines on expectation of a price drop amidst decline in sponge iron offers.

Indonesia portside prices stable w-o-w-Portside prices of Indonesian thermal prices to India are experiencing a period of stability with some underlying pressures amid supply dynamics, and regional demand variations. Prices of the 3400 GAR at Navlakhi Port remained flat w-o-w at INR 4,750/tonne (t). At Kandla and Vizag, prices of the 4200 GAR stood stable w-o-w at INR 5,950/t and INR 5,850/t ex-port, respectively. Notably, low power demand in India, and a stable flow of seaborne cargoes under long-term contracts were recorded.

Domestic coal prices decline up to INR 500/t ($6) after SECL auction - Domestic coal prices fell this week by INR 400-500/t following SECL's auction on 19 November. According to BigMint's assessment, the price for 4500 GCV grade dropped to INR 5,500/t, while 5000 GCV grade fell to INR 6,800/t exw-Bilaspur. The auction saw 12 lakh tonnes of coal on offer, with the market showing usual buying activity despite the price decline.

India's domestic met coke prices soften w-o-w on weak sentiment and global trends - Domestic met coke prices in India dipped by INR 100/tonne (t) week-on-week, reflecting bearish market sentiment. As per BigMint's assessment, 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade was priced at INR 32,700/t ($387/t) exw-Jajpur, while prices in Gandhidham stood at INR 29,500/t ($349/t). Market sources indicated that lower import offers are adding pressure on domestic prices. An eastern India-based cokery sold 5,000 t at INR 32,500/t exw-Jajpur.

India: Imported met coke prices steady week-on-week - Imported met coke prices in India remained stable, with offers for Indonesian material at $260-270/t FOB for January laycans. However, no cargoes are being offered from Indonesia for December shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese coke is being quoted at $285/t FOB, with most volumes being redirected to the European market, according to sources. China's met coke market witnessed its third price reduction on 18 November, prompted by weak purchasing from steelmakers and falling steel prices. Key steel producers lowered coke buying rates by RMB 50-55/t, increasing pressure on coking coal prices.

Coking coal prices dip w-o-w amid weak buying interest - Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices dropped to $203.5/t FOB yesterday, marking a $2.5/t decline week-on-week. The price drop was attributed to unsold cargoes lingering in the market and buyers showing reluctance to increase bids. While Indian demand remained muted, some market participants are hopeful that winter restocking by Chinese end-users could offer near-term support.

India's imported pet coke prices climb - Prices of imported pet coke (6.5% sulphur) rose this week, with CFR offers for the west coast assessed at $98-100/t and the east coast at $100-102/t, up from last week's levels of $95-96/t and $97-98/t, respectively. Despite muted trading, sellers increased prices, anticipating a revival in demand in the coming weeks.

Coal vessel freights show mixed trends - India's coal vessel freights showed a mixed trend this week, with weak coal demand exerting downward pressure on rates. Limited inquiries, combined with ample stock at power plants and a sluggish sponge iron market, kept coal imports under pressure. Vessel availability remained sufficient at the portside, but the lack of cargoes contributed to a subdued market sentiment. Freights from Australia to India rose by $0.52/t, with rates from Hay Point to Paradip reaching $15.4/t, as mid-December bookings from SAIL and RINL kept the route's rates higher. Conversely, freights from South Africa and Indonesia dropped by $0.29/t and $2.10/t, respectively, as limited trade activity weighed on the market.