Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 46, 2024)

Prevailing sentiments in the Indian coal and coke markets remain largely subdued, reflecting weak demand across key sectors. While some price fluctuations were seen in thermal and met coke coal, overall market activity remained cautious. Limited buying interest, especially in imports, was driven by factors such as sufficient domestic stockpiles and subdued industrial demand from China and India.

The festive season has contributed to some muted trading, and participants are awaiting post-auction market movements. Supply disruptions, such as strikes at South African ports and political unrest, added uncertainty but did not significantly alter price trends. Despite some pockets of price stability, the broader outlook remains constrained, with expectations of gradual improvement in the coming weeks.

Indonesia: Portside thermal coal prices steady

Indonesia's portside thermal coal prices remained stable amid lacklustre demand from India and China. Prices for 3400 GAR at Navlakhi rose by INR 50/t to INR 4,750/t, while 4200 GAR at Kandla and Vizag held steady at INR 5,950/t and INR 5,850/t, respectively. Prices for 5000 GAR at Kandla and high-CV coal at Vizag also remained unchanged. Indian demand was subdued due to higher domestic production, with Coal India's April-October output rising 2.5% y-o-y to 403.8 mnt. In China, industrial sectors showed weak demand, limiting interest to low-CV coal. Indonesian high-CV coal dropped slightly to $93.91/t, while mid- and low-CV coal prices saw minor increases.

India: Portside South African coal prices remain steady

Portside prices for South African thermal coal saw a slight increase, with RB2 (5500 NAR) at INR 9,550/t and RB3 at INR 7,700/t ex-Gangavaram, according to BigMint's latest assessment. Despite the uptick, trading remained limited due to subdued buying, with sufficient stockpiles and a sharp decline in sponge iron prices. Major sponge iron players reduced imports in favour of domestic coal.

India: Domestic coal prices stable amid subdued demand

Domestic coal prices held steady week-on-week, with 4500 GCV at INR 5,900/t and 5000 GCV at INR 7,300/t ex-Bilaspur, as per BigMint's assessments. Market sentiment remains cautious, with limited buying activity. Participants anticipate potential price changes after upcoming auctions, expecting improved demand and buying interest in the weeks ahead.

India: Limited Indonesian met coke offers, market quiet

India's imported met coke market was subdued due to limited trades, with Indonesia's December supply sold out and no offers for January. Chinese offers hovered at $285/t FOB. Steel mills in Tangshan, China, have announced a second straight reduction in met coke procurement prices by RMB 50-55/t ($7-7.5/t), effective today. The cut comes as reduced hot metal output has lowered bids for met coke. Current prices in Hebei's Tangshan are at RMB 1,760/t. The market is expecting a third round of price cut soon. India's January-October 2024 met coke imports rose 17% y-o-y to 3.5 mnt, led by China and Indonesia (1 mnt each). Domestic production reached 3.59 mnt in October, up from 3.10 mnt in September, while merchant output remained stable at 0.35 mnt.

India: Met coke prices dip in eastern region

Coke prices in India saw a decline in parts of the country. As per BigMint's assessment, 25-90 mm BF-grade met coke was priced at INR 32,800/t ex-Jajpur, down INR 600/t w-o-w, while prices in Gandhidham remained steady at INR 29,600/t. Market sources attributed the price drop to pressure from more competitive import offers.

India: Imported pet coke prices remain stable w-o-w

Imported pet coke prices (6.5% sulphur) stayed steady week-on-week at $95-96/t on the west coast and $97-98/t on the east coast. Market sources attributed the stability to festive holidays, with sellers anticipating a potential demand increase. Although shipping rates saw slight fluctuations, they did not impact the overall price stability.

India: Coal vessel freight rates show mixed trends; port stocks fall

India's coal vessel freight rates displayed divergent trends this week. Australia-India rates remained stable at $14.88/dmt from Hay Point to Paradip, supported by bookings from SAIL, RINL, and Tata Steel. South Africa- India freights fell $0.96/t to $13.4/t from RBCT to Paradip, amid weak demand and sponge price volatility. Indonesia-India freights from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi held steady at $13.5/t, driven by steady inquiries. Meanwhile, Indian port stocks of thermal coal dropped 3.5% w-o-w to 11.99 mnt. Disruptions at South Africa's Lebombo border due to protests are yet to impact freight rates significantly.