Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 45, 2024)

• Caution persists in India post-Diwali
  
  
• Demand expected to rise in near term
  
  

Indonesian and South African coal prices remained steady due to subdued demand from major importers such as India and China, which are dealing with high inventories and logistical disruptions. Domestic coal prices were stable amid low post-Diwali demand, but buying interest is expected to pick up once auctions resume. Met coke prices also remained stable, though transaction volumes decreased. The market sentiment is largely wait-and-watch, with many participants expecting price shifts and a potential uptick in demand in the coming weeks.

India: Indonesian portside coal prices stable amid low demand

Indonesian thermal coal prices remained unchanged this week, with Indian and Chinese buyers cautious about new purchases due to high inventories and weather-related disruptions. At Navlakhi, 3400 GAR coal held steady at INR 4,700/tonne (t), while 4200 GAR at Kandla and Vizag stood stable at INR 5,950/t and INR 5,850/t, respectively. At Kandla, 5000 GAR remained flat at INR 7,950/t, and high-CV coal at Vizag remained at INR 7,800/t. In Indonesia, 5800 GAR FOB prices rose slightly to $93.93/t, while 4200 GAR and 3400 GAR prices saw minor declines due to limited short-term demand.

India: South African coal prices steady as buyers wait for clarity

South African thermal coal prices remained mostly unchanged this week, with RB2 (5500 GAR) at INR 9,500/t and RB3 (4800 GAR) at INR 7,600/t, ex-Gangavaram, per BigMint's latest assessment. Despite rising sponge prices, buyers adopted a wait-and-watch approach, questioning price sustainability. Stocks at Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) are reportedly increasing, though demand from major importers, including India, remains muted. Post-Diwali, demand from sponge iron units was expected to rise, but this has yet to materialise. Indian portside thermal coal stocks dipped slightly by 0.28% to 12.43 million tonnes (mnt) in week 44.

India's domestic coal prices steady amid low post-Diwali demand

India's domestic coal prices remained stable this week, with 4500 GCV coal at INR 5,900/t ex-Bilaspur and 5000 GCV at INR 7,300/t, according to BigMint's latest assessment. Post-Diwali, market activity was subdued with minimal buying interest. Participants expect a price increase once auctions resume, with demand likely to pick up in the coming weeks.

India: Indonesian met coke import offers increase by $10/t w-o-w

Met coke import offers from Indonesia rose to $285/t FOB, with December and January loading slots fully booked. Indian steel mills are favouring bulk purchases due to Indonesia's competitive pricing. Market participants expect notable price shifts soon, as upcoming price announcements from Chinese mills are likely to influence import offers.

China's met coke market steady amid cautious outlook before key meeting

China's metallurgical coke market held steady as participants adopted a cautious approach ahead of the government stimulus announcement. Prices of quasi grade I met coke were stable on 5 November, with Luliang and Tangshan at RMB 1,660/t and RMB 1,860/t, respectively. Despite a weaker supply-demand balance, coking plants maintained production due to favourable margins from lower feed coal costs. Steel mills showed strong demand, but some have built sufficient inventories, leading to localised stock build-up. Total coke stocks at steel mills rose slightly by 0.8% to 924,900 t as of 4 November.

India's met coke prices hold steady as transaction volumes dip

Domestic met coke prices in India remained stable this week, with 25-90 mm blast furnace grade priced at INR 33,400/t exw in Jajpur and INR 29,600/t in Gandhidham, as per BigMint. Limited transactions were reported, with eastern Indian producers securing around 7,000 t at INR 33,500-34,000/t. India's coke imports dropped by 18% in October to 0.26 mnt, with Indonesia and Japan leading exports at 0.08 mnt each. Tata Steel recorded the highest import volume at 0.14 mnt, followed by AM/NS at 0.088 mnt.

India: Nayara Energy maintains pet coke prices in Nov'24

Nayara Energy, a top petroleum company in India, has kept its pet coke prices steady m-o-m at INR 12,037/t for November 2024 sales. However, these prices show a significant y-o-y drop of 19.3%. The company remains the largest pet coke supplier from a single refinery.

India's imported pet coke prices hold steady w-o-w

Imported pet coke (6.5% sulphur) prices remained stable this week, assessed at $95-96/t CFR for India's west coast and $97-98/t CFR for the east coast. Market participants attributed the steady pricing to the recent festive holidays, with sellers holding back offers, expecting demand to rise.

India's coal vessel freights show mixed trends post-Diwali

India's coal vessel freights displayed a mixed trend in the week following Diwali due to weak market sentiment and limited cargo availability. Supramax vessels were favoured over Panamax, leading to lower freights. Thermal coal stocks at ports dipped slightly by 0.28% w-o-w, settling at 12.43 mnt in week 44. The Baltic Dry Index fell to a nine-month low of 1,378 points. Freights from Australia to India dropped to $14.88/t, while South Africa to India rates increased by $0.25/t to $14.36/t. Meanwhile, Indonesia-India freights declined to $11.95/t amid improved shipping movements.