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Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 43, 2024)

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Non Coking

BigMint Bureau

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26 Oct 2024, 13:41 IST

Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 43, 2024)

Indonesian thermal coal prices remain stable

Met coke offers to India fall, demand recovers

Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports remained stable this week, reflecting a cautious market sentiment, as stocks at power plants remained sufficient and buying interest from India and China was limited. In non-coking coal, demand held steady but is expected to pick up post-Diwali as power plants may restock. The met coke market showed a recovery in demand with renewed import activity, yet prices stayed under pressure amid cautious mill purchases. Meanwhile, coking coal prices softened, with limited transactions occurring ahead of the festive season. Pet coke prices remained stable, with low buying interest expected to continue until the holidays end.

India: Indonesian portside coal prices stable amid low demand

Indonesian portside thermal coal prices held steady this week, as market participants adopted a cautious stance due to ample stocks at power plants and limited buying in India and China. Prices of 3400 GAR at Navlakhi rose INR 100/tonne (t) to INR 4,700/t, while 4200 GAR at Kandla and Vizag held at INR 5,950/t and INR 5,850/t, respectively. High-CV 5000 GAR coal prices also remained stable at INR 7,950/t in Kandla and INR 7,800/t in Vizag. Indonesian miners kept prices largely unchanged, with low-CV coal offers declining amid increased mining output. Demand is expected to improve in November after Diwali as coastal power plants ramp up inquiries.

India: Portside South African coal prices steady amid weak sponge iron market

Portside prices of South African thermal coal in India remained stable this week, with RB2 (5500 GAR) at INR 9,500/t and RB3 at INR 7,600/t ex-Gangavaram, according to BigMint. Weak domestic sponge iron prices softened demand, with buyers cautious and keeping bids low in hopes of further price drops. Non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports increased slightly by 2.3% to 12.75 million tonnes (mnt) in week 42. RB3 (4800 NAR) offers stayed stable at $70/t FOB, while RB2 prices edged down to $89.5/t FOB. The Indian coal market is likely to remain quiet until after Diwali, with suppliers clearing inventory for December-loading.

India's domestic coal prices rise w-o-w

BigMint's latest assessment indicates that 4500 GCV coal rose to INR 5,900/t exw-Bilaspur, while 5000 GCV coal surged to INR 7,300/t, marking an INR 100-400/t increase from the previous week. India's domestic coal prices moved up this week due to a demand-supply gap and strong demand.

India: Demand for imported met coke rebounds amid price pressure, new bookings continue

Met coke import prices to India softened slightly this week to $275-290/t CFR from Indonesia, down from $285-290/t CFR last week. Indian mills have made immediate bookings around $290/t CFR, showing a strong demand recovery after a three-week lull. New bookings for end-November loadings are primarily from trading firms meeting steel mill tenders. While coking coal prices remain pressured, mills are procuring coke ahead of expected December price increases, managing quotas cautiously. India's H1FY'25 met coke imports totalled 2.3 mnt, up from 1.8 mnt in H1FY'24, with domestic output at 3.10 mnt as of September.

India: Domestic met coke prices stable, demand for imported material recovers

India's domestic met coke prices remained stable this week, with 25-90 mm BF-grade recorded at INR 33,400/t exw-Jajpur and INR 29,600/t in Gandhidham. A deal for 12,000 t was concluded at INR 33,250/t in Jajpur. As per BigMint, met coke output reached 3.10 mnt in September 2024, with 0.35 mnt from merchant miners. Imported met coke prices from Indonesia fell to $275-290/t CFR, with bookings increasing following the slump. Australian coking coal prices dipped 6% w-o-w to $199/t FOB. In China, the first round of coke price cuts, in the range of RMB 50-55/t, landed, while Indian pig iron prices in Durgapur dropped by INR 1,650/t w-o-w.

Coking coal prices down 6% w-o-w

Australian coking coal prices fell by 6% w-o-w to $199/t FOB yesterday. Prices were under pressure, as some cargoes for reselling came into the market. Some demand was seen in the Indian and Chinese markets. Besides, the bid-offer disparity continued to keep transactions on the lower side.

India: Coal vessel freights decline amid weak demand, lower festive trading

India's coal vessel freight rates dropped this week due to subdued demand as Indian buyers reduced activity ahead of Diwali. Limited trading and lower portside inventory levels have kept November coal shipments light. Non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports rose 2.3% to 12.75 mnt in week 42 from 12.47 mnt in week 41, BigMint observed. Freights from Australia to Paradip dipped by $0.62/t w-o-w to $15.28/dmt, while South Africa's RBCT-Paradip rates decreased by $0.72/t to $14.16/t. Indonesian freights from East Kalimantan fell by $0.75/t to $12.3/t, pressured by sparse fixtures and bid-offer gaps.

India: Imported pet coke prices hold steady w-o-w

Imported pet coke prices (6.5% sulphur) remained unchanged this week, with rates assessed at $93-94/t CFR on the west coast and $94-95/t CFR on the east coast of India. Low buying interest, due to subdued bidding activity, kept prices steady, and market participants expect that any price movement will likely occur post-festive season.