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Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 42, 2024)

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Non Coking

BigMint Bureau

174 Reads

19 Oct 2024, 13:37 IST

Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 42, 2024)

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports remained stable amid limited buying interest. Buyers adopted a cautious approach ahead of winter restocking. Domestic non-coking coal prices saw a slight increase driven by higher bids at recent auctions. In the met coke sector, domestic prices held steady, while imported offers declined following weaker Chinese prices, prompting Indian mills to seek immediate bookings. Australian coking coal prices also dropped due to bid-offer disparities and reduced buying interest before the festive season, creating a mixed market outlook as demand fluctuated.

Indonesian portside coal prices rise

Indonesian portside thermal coal prices experienced mixed trends this week. Prices of low-CV 3400 GAR coal at Navlakhi rose by INR 250/t to INR 4,800/t driven by high demand. In contrast, prices for the 4200 GAR variety remained stable at INR 5,950/t at Kandla and INR 5,850/t at Vizag. The 5000 GAR coal at Kandla stayed flat at INR 7,950/t, while Vizag's high-CV variety remained steady at INR 7,800/t. Lower port stocks and improved demand from power plants ahead of the festive season are supporting price stability. The Ministry of Power's extension of imported coal usage till 31 December 2024 further indicates rising demand, particularly as winter approaches and Indian power plants anticipate increased inquiries following Diwali.

Portside South African coal prices stable

Portside prices of South African thermal coal remained stable this week due to limited buying interest from Indian buyers. BigMint's assessment showed RB2 (5500 GAR) prices at INR 9,500/t and RB3 at INR 7,650/t, ex-Gangavaram. The market saw cautious buying as Indian demand softened, with buyers holding off before restocking for winter. Despite weak demand in India, South African suppliers found support from other nations. Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports dipped by 1.57% to 12.47 million tonnes during week 41.

Non-coking coal prices edge up

India's domestic non-coking coal prices increased slightly this week driven by higher bids at SECL's recent auction. BigMint's assessment indicated that 4500 GCV coal increased to INR 5,800/t ex-Bilaspur, up from INR 5,700/t w-o-w. Similarly, 5000 GCV coal prices climbed to INR 6,900/t compared to INR 6,750/t last week. The auction played a key role in this upward trend.

Imported met coke offers drop

Imported met coke offers to India declined $15/t w-o-w driven by a drop in Chinese offers. Prices from Indonesia were assessed at $285-290/t CFR India, while Chinese offers hovered around $280/t CFR India. BigMint reports that several Indian steel mills are actively negotiating for immediate cargo bookings as they seek to capitalize on the price decline.

Domestic met coke prices steady amid global market volatility

India's domestic met coke prices held stable this week despite global fluctuations. BigMint assessed blast furnace (BF) grade met coke at INR 33,500/t ex-Jajpur and INR 29,600/t ex-Gandhidham. Deals for 20,000 t in southern India were recorded at INR 28,000-30,000/t. In Jajpur, 7,000 t sold at INR 34,500/t, and 15,000 t was transacted at INR 33,500-34,250/t. While imported met coke offers fell by $15/t, Chinese price hikes could influence Indian market trends in the coming weeks. On 14 October, steelmakers in Hebei and Tianjin accepted an RMB 50-55/t ($7.1-7.8/t) hike in met coke prices, marking the sixth increase since mid-September.

BigMint's coking coal index rises $7/t on global trends

BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index increased by $7/t reaching $222/t CNF Paradip, India, on 15 October. This rise from $215/t, assessed on 30 September, was influenced by stronger Australian export offers supported by positive sentiment in China following recent stimulus measures. Despite an inquiry for 20,000 t from an Indian mill, surplus stock in Indian steel mills dampened demand. Australian coking coal prices also edged up to $208/t FOB, while China's met coke prices continued to rise driven by firming up of demand and futures gains on the DCE. India's coking coal imports rose by 10.34% in H1FY'25, totaling 32 mnt.

Australia: Coking coal prices drop 2%

Australian premium hard coking coal prices declined by 2% w-o-w to $202/t FOB Australia. The drop was attributed to a mismatch in bid-offer levels and a decline in Chinese coking coal futures. Indian buying interest weakened ahead of the festive season, contributing to the price fall. The market continues to witness cautious buying as global coal demand shifts.

Imported pet coke prices into India dip

Imported pet coke prices in India fell slightly this week due to sluggish demand and high inventories. Prices for pet coke with 6.5% sulfur content were reported at $93-94/t CFR on the west coast and $94-95/t CFR on the east coast, down by $1/t w-o-w. A recent deal for a Supra vessel was concluded at $93/t CIF west coast of India.

Indian Oil reduces fuel-grade pet coke prices

Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) has lowered fuel-grade pet coke prices for October deliveries across its refineries. Prices at Koyali refinery dropped by INR 800/t to INR 10,180/t for road delivery. Panipat refinery saw a reduction of INR 1,000/t, bringing prices to INR 10,970/t. Paradip prices declined to INR 9,410/t, while Haldia prices decreased to INR 9,580/t.