Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 41, 2024)

India's domestic non-coking coal prices remained stable this week, supported by steady demand. The market anticipates upcoming e-auctions, which could influence future pricing. Demand for thermal coal is expected to rise as the festive season approaches, potentially leading to increased imports. In the pet coke market, prices declined due to weak demand and sufficient inventories, while imported met coke prices are rising amid stronger inquiries. Vessel freight rates have also increased, driven by heightened demand and improved sentiment in the steel market, indicating a shift in overall market conditions.

Indonesian portside thermal coal prices remain firm

Indonesian portside thermal coal prices remained supported this week. Portside sentiments were seen improving amid rising demand and lower stock levels, sources informed BigMint. Prices of the 3400 GAR at Navlakhi remained stable at INR 4,550/t. At Kandla and Vizag, prices of the 4200 GAR stood stable at INR 5,950/t and INR 5,850/t ex-port respectively.

South African coal prices edge up at Indian ports

Portside prices of South African thermal coal saw a slight increase this week. RB2 (5500 GAR) was assessed at INR 9,500/t, and RB3 (4800 GAR) at INR 7,650/t, both ex-Gangavaram. The price rise aligns with an uptrend in the global market and higher import offers, contributing to the overall increase.

India's domestic non-coking coal prices remain stable

India's domestic coal prices remained stable this week due to consistent demand. BigMint's assessment shows that 4500 GCV coal was priced at INR 5,700/t exw-Bilaspur, while 5000 GCV coal held at INR 6,750/t, both unchanged w-o-w. Usual demand patterns persisted, with upcoming e-auctions likely to impact prices in the near future, as market participants await potential shifts in supply.

Chinese mills accept 5th round of price hikes

Chinese mills' acceptance of the fifth round of met coke price hikes by RMB 50/t has been met with mixed sentiments. While some coke producers remained optimistic that steel mills will eventually agree to additional price increases, they expect these adjustments to be implemented more gradually and in phases.

India's imported met coke prices increase by $10/t

Imported met coke offers to India rose by $10/t this week, reaching $305/t CFR from Indonesia. Steel mills are expected to re-enter the market early next week, aiming for mid to late November laycan cargoes as new allocations are planned.

India's domestic met coke prices edge up amid higher import offers

Domestic met coke prices in India rose slightly this week, with 25-90 mm BF grade priced at INR 33,500/t exw-Jajpur, up INR 200/t w-o-w. Prices in Gandhidham remained stable at INR 29,600/t due to low demand and minimal transactions. Imported met coke offers increased by $10/t, reaching $305/t CFR from Indonesia. Meanwhile, Indian met coke imports surged to 2.3 million tonnes (mnt) in the first half of financial year 2025 (H1FY'25), with China and Indonesia as top suppliers. Coking coal prices from Australia remained steady at $203/t. The market outlook suggests stable domestic prices as buyers favour lower-priced imports.

Coking coal prices picked up

Australian coking coal prices picked up on a weekly basis by 2% at $207/t FOB Australia. Asian met coal prices remained within a narrow range, as mixed signals emerged following the reopening of the Chinese market after the Golden Week holiday.

India's pet coke prices fall on weak demand

The international market price of pet coke (6.5% sulfur) declined by $2 w-o-w to $94-95/t, driven by sluggish demand. Despite limited offers for October-November shipments, buyers are in no rush to purchase due to sufficient inventories. Weak demand has prevented any price hikes, with market participants expecting stable or slightly lower prices in the near term.

India's coal freight rates rise amid stronger demand

Coal freight rates to India increased this week due to higher demand and a rise in Baltic indices. Freight from Australia's Hay Point to Paradip rose by $0.1/t, reaching $15.9/t, with SAIL booking shipments for early November. South Africa's Richards Bay to Paradip route saw an increase of $0.15/t, now at $15.35/t, driven by fresh inquiries. Indonesian coal freights from East Kalimantan to Paradip also rose by $0.6/t, reaching $14/t. Rising steel demand and declining coal stocks at ports have boosted procurement activities, pushing freight rates higher. The Baltic Panamax and Supramax indices also increased, supporting the uptrend.