Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (week 40, 2024)

South African thermal coal prices increased this week, driven by improved sentiment in the steel market following rising sponge iron prices. In India, demand for thermal coal is expected to rise ahead of the festive season, leading to a notable increase in imports from South Africa. Meanwhile, Indonesian thermal coal prices remained stable, indicating steady market dynamics. Domestic coal prices in India also held firm, with potential price hikes anticipated as demand grows.

India: South African thermal coal prices rise as steel market supports demand

Portside prices of South African thermal coal have risen, with RB2 (5500 GAR) at INR 9,350/t and RB3 (4800 GAR) at INR 7,600/t, both up by INR 50/t ex-Gangavaram. This increase is supported by higher sponge iron prices and positive sentiment in the steel market. In September, thermal coal imports from South Africa surged by 39% to 2.5 million tonnes (mnt). With the festive season approaching, Indian buyers are expected to boost procurement of South African coal to meet rising steel production demands. Additionally, non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports decreased by 1.6% to 12.90 mnt.

Indonesian thermal coal portside prices in India stable w-o-w

Indonesian portside thermal coal prices remained steady this week, with 3400 GAR coal at Navlakhi Port priced at INR 4,550/t. At Kandla Port, 4200 GAR coal was stable at INR 5,950/t, while Vizag Port saw prices at INR 5,850/t. Prices of 5000 GAR coal at Kandla Port increased by INR 50/t to INR 7,900/t. Market dynamics show lower calorific value coal prices rising faster than mid-CV coal. Demand fundamentals remained stable in India, with expected increases in buying inquiries due to declining coal stocks at power plants and rising anticipation of demand from China.

India's domestic coal prices remain stable, may rise in future

India's domestic coal prices held steady this week, with expectations of future increases as demand gradually rises. BigMint's assessment indicates that 4500 GCV coal is priced at INR 5,700/t exw-Bilaspur, remaining unchanged w-o-w. In contrast, 5000 GCV coal has seen a rise of INR 150/t, now priced between INR 6,500 and INR 6,900/t.

Indonesia raises met coke offers to India as global demand recovers

Indonesian producers increased their blast furnace (BF) grade met coke offers to $265-270 FOB, a rise of $15-20 from the previous week. The increase is due to growing global demand and reduced supply from China. Both Chinese and Indonesian coke producers are holding off on new offers until after the holidays, expecting prices to go up even more, sources told BigMint.

Coking coal prices adjust awaiting Chinese holiday trends

Australian premium hard coking coal has inched down to $203/t FOB. Prices have been largely steady, awaiting clarity in price direction on Chinese holidays.

Indian met coke prices hold steady amid limited trade activity

India's domestic met coke prices remained stable this week, with BF grade prices at INR 33,300/t ex-Jajpur and INR 29,600/t in Gandhidham. In the first half of the financial year 2025 (H1FY'25), met coke imports rose to 2.3 mnt from 1.8 mnt in H1FY'24, with China supplying 0.8 mnt and Indonesia 0.62 mnt. Despite Indonesian offers rising to $265-270 FOB due to global demand recovery, imported prices remain lower than domestic rates, making imports more cost-effective.

India: Imported pet coke prices drop by $8/t w-o-w

Imported pet coke (6.5% sulfur) prices in the international market have fallen by $8/t, or 8%, compared to last week. Prices now stand at $95/t CFR on the west coast and $96/t CFR on the east coast of India. The decline is mainly due to reduced infrastructure activities caused by the ongoing monsoon season.

Indian pet coke refineries cut prices for October 2024 deliveries

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has reduced pet coke prices by INR 1,026/t ($12/t) for October 2024, bringing the price to INR 11,637/t ex-Jamnagar. RIL offers limited pet coke in the market as most of its production is used in its gasification unit. Chennai Petroleum cut prices by INR 640/t ($8/t) to INR 12,540/t ex-Chennai for October, with road supply only. Mangalore Refinery (MRPL) lowered prices by INR 700/t to INR 9,680/t for road and INR 9,380/t for rail shipments, primarily serving cement customers.