Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (Week 38, 2024)

The global coal and coke markets saw mixed trends. Indonesian thermal coal prices fluctuated, with a demand recovery expected soon, while South African coal prices dropped due to weak demand and high stocks. Imported met coke remained steady with limited bookings, but India's met coke prices faced pressure amid weak demand. Imported pet coke prices have also declined due to low buying interest.

Indonesian thermal coal prices show mixed trends amid expected demand recovery: This week, Indonesian thermal coal portside prices presented mixed trends. Low-CV coal prices fell, with 3400 GAR coal at Navlakhi Port declining by INR 200/tonne (t) to INR 4,700/t. In contrast, mid- to high-CV coal prices remained stable, with 4200 GAR coal at Kandla holding steady at INR 5,900/t and 5000 GAR coal at Kandla and Vizag priced at INR 7,900/t and INR 7,800/t, respectively. Market participants are optimistic about a demand recovery from India as industrial activity ramps up for the festive season. Notably, preferences are shifting toward low-CV coal due to favourable pricing trends.

South African coal prices under pressure amid weak demand and high stock: South African thermal coal prices remained steady, with RB2 (5500 GAR) at INR 9,400/t and RB3 (4800 GAR) at INR 7,600/t ex-Gangavaram, though some sellers offered RB2 as low as INR 9,200/t. Market conditions favour buyers due to high stock levels. Non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports fell 2.05% w-o-w to 13.10 million tonnes (mnt). Recent deals included RB2 sold at INR 9,000/t at Ennore Port and INR 9,500-9,600/t at Haldia. Meanwhile, RB3 prices dipped $1/t to $69/t FOB.

India's domestic coal prices rise due to weather and supply issues: India's domestic coal prices increased this week due to adverse weather conditions and limited auction supply. BigMint's assessment for 4500 GCV coal rose by INR 500/t to INR 5,700/t exw-Bilaspur (inclusive of royalty, DMF, and NMET), while 5000 GCV coal was assessed at INR 6,600/t. Supply constraints and weather disruptions are contributing to a price surge across key regions.

Imported met coke prices steady as fresh bookings remain limited: Imported met coke offers to India remained stable w-o-w, with prices around $235/t FOB from Indonesia and $225/t FOB from China. Despite prices bottoming out, fresh bookings have been limited, as most purchases involve material already available at ports, according to sources. Demand remains subdued, which has been keeping the market quiet for now.

Indian met coke prices remain under pressure amid weak demand and subdued trades: India's domestic met coke prices remained stable after hitting a four-month low, with 25-90 mm blast furnace grade at INR 33,500/t exw-Jajpur. Gandhidham prices fell by INR 700/t to INR 29,800/t. Despite competitive imported offers, buying interest remains weak. In Gandhidham, 5,000 t were sold at INR 28,000/t, while in Jajpur, 20,000 t were traded at INR 34,000-34,500/t. Imported met coke offers held steady at $235/t from Indonesia and $225/t from China, while Australian coking coal prices remained unchanged at $180/t FOB.

China's coke prices rise on strong demand and improving profits: After the Mid-Autumn Festival, steelmakers in North China accepted the hike of RMB 50-55/t ($7-7.7/t) proposed by domestic producers. The increase follows eight consecutive price cuts since July. Rising demand for raw materials and improved steelmaker profits are key drivers for the price surge. Another factor was the losses of RMB 204/t reported by coke producers in Shanxi. Coke demand has surged due to blast furnace restarts, but future price increases depend on domestic steel price trends.

Imported pet coke prices drop amid weak buying interest: Imported pet coke prices (6.5% sulfur) fell by $2-3/t w-o-w, with prices at $103-104/t CFR on the west coast and $104-105/t CFR on the east coast of India. The decline is attributed to weak buying sentiment in both India and China, reflecting subdued demand in the international market.