Weekly recap: Global coal market trends (Week 29, 2024)

• South African coal prices at Indian ports drop to a 3-month low
  
  
• Decision on Indian met coke import restrictions by month-end: sources
  
  
• Australian coking coal prices edge down on weak demand
  
  

South African coal prices drop at Indian ports- South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports have decreased by INR 300-400/tonne, with RB2 and RB3 prices at Vizag and Gangavaram now at INR 9,650/t and INR 7,750/t, respectively. This drop is attributed to subdued long steel demand and falling bids due to price pressure from sponge players. Market sentiment remains weak, with traders offering material at lower prices amidst panic. Despite operational disruptions reported by South Africa's Transnet, these developments are unlikely to support coal prices in the near term due to weaker demand.

Indonesian thermal coal portside prices remain stable- Indonesian thermal coal portside prices remained largely stable this week despite increased demand from China and India. Prices of the 3400 GAR coal at Navlakhi Port were at INR 5,200/t, while 4200 GAR at Kandla stood at INR 6,300/t ex-port. In China, power plants increased spot cargo inquiries due to higher coal burn from rising temperatures, while Indian traders and coastal power plants showed interest in mid-CV cargoes but remained cautious. Indonesian power plants in the northern region are witnessing low stocks, prompting increased inquiries. Weather disruptions have eased, benefiting coal production and logistics. The market outlook remains influenced by seasonal and regional supply-demand dynamics.

Australian coking coal prices drop around $20/t - Australian coking coal prices declined by around $20/t to $231/t FOB due to subdued demand amid ongoing plenum session in Beijing. Additionally, there were offers for June/July loading cargoes on lower prices showing a willingness among sellers to revise their offers downward in response to market conditions.

Indian met coke prices under pressure- Met coke prices in India have dipped slightly due to subdued demand and limited trades. Prices are at around INR 34,800/t ex-works Jajpur and above INR 35,000/t from some cokeries. Prices in western India fell to INR 32,900/t. A decision on met coke import restrictions is expected by the end of the month.

Imported pet coke prices edge up w-o-w- Imported pet coke prices have edged up, reaching $108-109/t CFR in the west and $110-111/t CFR in the east. IOCL has decreased prices of raw petroleum coke (RPC) by up to INR 1,090/t, with Barauni RPC with high- ash content now at INR 19,904/t.

Bulk vessel freight rates remain supported on seasonal factors - Coal vessel freight rates have remained largely stable this week. There is sluggish demand in the domestic market as buying activities have slowed down. As per BigMint's assessment, freight rates from Port Hay Point to Paradip were recorded at $16.7/dry metric tonne (dmt), stable w-o-w. Freight rates from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) to Paradip are currently at around $16.4/dmt, stable w-o-w.