India's coal market continues to face challenges as demand remains weak across sectors. Imported thermal coal prices for South African grades have softened, while portside inventories have increased. This decline in demand is coupled with subdued activity in the sponge iron sector.
Meanwhile, domestic thermal coal prices have stabilized amid soft demand, with some producers reducing output. Domestic met coke prices remain steady due to balanced inventory levels and stable supply, but a lack of market pressure means no significant price hikes are anticipated. Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious, with ongoing concerns over weak demand and inventory buildup.
Portside prices of Indonesian non-coking coal remain stable
Portside prices for Indonesian non-coking coal in India held steady this week despite weak demand due to reduced industrial activity, especially in the ceramics sector. At Navlakhi Port, 3400 GAR coal prices dropped by INR 50/tonne (t) to INR 4,650/t, while 4200 GAR at Kandla fell by INR 50/t to INR 5,850/t. Vizag's 4200 GAR prices remained stable at INR 5,750/t. Additionally, 5000 GAR coal prices at Kandla declined by INR 100/t to INR 7,700/t, and high-GCV coal at Vizag dropped by INR 50/t to INR 7,650/t.
Imported South African coal prices dip on weak demand
India's portside prices for South African thermal coal edged down this week. RB2 (5500 NAR) prices fell to INR 8,850/t, down by INR 100/t w-o-w, while RB3 (4800 NAR) prices held steady at INR 7,300/t ex-Gangavaram. Weak sponge iron demand and high domestic coal supplies kept buying interest low, adding pressure to prices. Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports rose by 2% to 14.22 mnt in week 2 of CY'25. South African export offers also dropped with RB2 at $82/t FOB and RB3 at $62.5/t FOB. Sponge iron prices softened by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 25,600/t exw-Rourkela. Market conditions are expected to remain challenging amid weak demand.
Domestic thermal coal prices stable amid subdued demand
Domestic thermal coal prices in India remained steady this week. BigMint's assessment showed 4500 GCV coal prices at INR 4,800/t and 5000 GCV at INR 5,600/t exw-Bilaspur. Market sentiment was weak due to subdued demand, with some end-users holding sufficient inventories and others reducing production or shutting down plants. The upcoming SECL coal auction, scheduled for 23 January, could add further pressure to prices.
Domestic met coke prices stable amid steady supply
Indian met coke prices remained stable this week, with BigMint's assessment showing 25-90 mm blast furnace grade coke at INR 32,800/t exw-Jajpur and INR 28,800/t exw Gandhidham. Sellers aimed for INR 30,000/t exw Gandhidham. Sufficient inventory levels and incoming imported cargoes have kept prices rangebound, with no sharp increases expected. Australian coking coal prices were rangebound at $189/t FOB, while China's met coke market faces a potential seventh price cut amid a supply glut. Imported met coke prices in India from Indonesia and China were $255-260/t and $250-255/t FOB for 64% and 62% CSR, respectively.
Chinese steel mills press for 7th coke price cut
China's met coke market faces a potential seventh price cut amid a persistent supply glut. Prices have already dropped by RMB 300-330/t ($40-45/t) across six rounds since late October, but slow steel mill purchases continue to hinder destocking, leaving coke inventories elevated at coking plants, according to market sources.
Bigmint's coking coal index drops $6 in recent deals
BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index fell to $208.5/t CNF Paradip on 15 January from $215/t CNF on 31 December. Limited Australian coking coal shipments have kept prices range-bound, with sellers targeting $218-220 CNF for India and buyers looking for $207-208 CNF. In one deal, an Indian mill secured 55,000t of Goonyella at $208-209/t CFR for February delivery. Factors like Australia's monsoon season and rising safeguard duties on steel are expected to push prices higher, although buyers remain cautious.
India's imported pet coke prices reach 4-month high
India's imported pet coke prices have risen to $107-108/t CFR for the west coast and $110-109/t CFR for the east coast, up by $5-6/t from last week's $102-103/t and $103-104/t, respectively. This marks the highest level since September 2024. With markets reopening after two weeks, refiners have kept prices high, anticipating stronger demand. However, some market participants believe prices have reached their peak following the holiday period.
India's coal freight rates decline
Coal freight rates in India have dropped this week due to an oversupply of vessels despite a slight increase in cargo volumes. The Indonesian basin has seen the most significant pressure, with freight rates remaining low due to limited demand and excess vessel availability. Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports rose by 2% to 14.22 mnt during week 2 of January 2025. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropped by 24 points to 1,048, while the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) decreased by 87 points to 953. Rates for Australia-to-India shipments remained stable at $11.9/dmt, while South African and Indonesian freights dropped by $0.2/t and $1.8/t, respectively.
