Weekly coal report: Trends shaping Indian, global markets (week 07, 2025)

Indian portside coal prices showed mixed trends, with Indonesian coal rising due to stronger demand and supply disruptions, while South African coal remained steady amid weak buying interest.

Domestic thermal coal prices held firm following a key auction, supported by stable import offers. Coking coal prices dipped as market participants awaited new deals, while met coke remained range-bound despite slow trades. Pet coke prices stayed unchanged, though US-origin cargoes faced pressure from Chinese tariffs.

Freight rates increased due to tight vessel availability and rising fuel costs, while global coal prices remained volatile, influenced by weather disruptions and fluctuating Chinese demand.

India: Portside Indonesian coal prices rise w-o-w

Indonesian non-coking coal prices at Indian ports increased w-o-w, supported by a stronger dollar and higher demand. At Kandla, 5000 GAR coal rose by INR 50/t to INR 7,650/t, while high-GCV 5000 GAR at Vizag increased INR 100/t to INR 7,600/t. Meanwhile, 3400 GAR at Navlakhi remained stable at INR 4,500/t, and 4200 GAR at Kandla and Vizag held at INR 5,850/t and INR 5,750/t, respectively.

Non-coking coal stocks at Indian ports inched up by 1% w-o-w to 13.76 mnt. Indonesian coal supply tightened due to loading delays caused by heavy rainfall. While Chinese demand may support sentiment, price volatility and logistical disruptions continue to impact the market.

Portside South African thermal coal prices stable

Portside South African thermal coal prices in India remained steady this week. RB2 (5500 NAR) was assessed at INR 8,650/t exw-Gangavaram, while RB3 (4800 NAR) stayed at INR 7,250/t. Traders offered RB2 at INR 8,100/t exw-Mangalore, with recent trades at INR 8,500/t exw-Vizag. Weak demand and competitive domestic supply limited price movement.

Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports increased 0.7% w-o-w to 13.76 mnt in week 6 of CY'25. South Africa's RB2 export prices rose by $1/t w-o-w to $83/t FOB, while RB3 increased to $63/t FOB. Sponge C-DRI prices edged up by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 25,900/t exw-Rourkela. Portside coal prices may stay under pressure amid subdued demand.

Indian thermal coal prices remain steady w-o-w

India's domestic thermal coal prices remained largely unchanged following the 12 February SECL auction. 4500 GCV coal prices stood at INR 5,000/t, while 5000 GCV remained at INR 5,950/t, both exw-Bilaspur.

Prices were expected to decline significantly at the recent SECL auction, but stable import offers provided support, preventing a downward correction in domestic rates. Market trends will continue to depend on import price movements and auction outcomes.

SECL will auction 1.54 mnt of non-coking coal on 19 Feb'25, while ECL will auction 88,500 t on 18 Feb'25.

BigMint's coking coal index drops, buyers await clarity on fresh deals

BigMint's premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index declined to $203/t CNF Paradip on 15 February, down by $4 from the last assessment. Market uncertainty persists, with traders offering at $200/t FOB Australia while buyers remain hesitant. Seasonal disruptions in Australia have lifted offers slightly, with PHCC assessed at $190/t FOB.

India's domestic met coke prices remained largely stable, though imported bookings remained limited. Meanwhile, China recorded its eighth consecutive coke price cut, reflecting weak demand and high inventories. While Australian weather disruptions could support prices, weak steel market sentiment may cap further increases. Buyer response will be crucial in setting the market trend.

India: Domestic met coke prices stable w-o-w despite slower trades

India's domestic met coke prices remained steady this week. BigMint assessed 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade coke at INR 34,000/t exw-Jajpur, unchanged w-o-w, while Gandhidham prices rose by INR 500/t to INR 32,000/t exw. A 10,000 t deal was concluded at INR 34,200/t exw-Jajpur.

Imported met coke bookings stayed low due to restrictions, with 64% CSR material priced at $250/t CFR India. In China, met coke prices dropped for the eighth time, down RMB 400-440/t since October due to weak demand. Meanwhile, Australian PHCC prices increased by $4/t w-o-w to $190/t FOB amid tight US supply. Domestic met coke prices are expected to stay range-bound, driven by trade activity and steel prices.

India's imported pet coke prices remain steady w-o-w

India's imported pet coke prices remained unchanged w-o-w at $110-111/t CFR west coast and $113-114/t CFR east coast, supported by steady demand from cement manufacturers.

Meanwhile, US pet coke prices faced pressure due to China's latest tariffs, making US-origin cargoes cheaper than Saudi material on a CIF China basis. Future price movements will depend on further developments in US-China trade relations, which could influence global pet coke supply and pricing trends.

India: Coal freight rates rise amid higher demand, firm Baltic indices

Coal freight rates in India increased due to strong import demand, tight vessel availability, and higher bunker prices. Increased cargo from Australia reduced vessel supply, while steady demand from other Asian markets further tightened availability. Rising bunker fuel costs also pushed up shipping expenses.

Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports rose slightly by 0.7% w-o-w to 13.76 mnt in week 6 of CY'25. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 80 points w-o-w to 815, while the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) surged by 235 points to 1,035.

Freights from Australia to Paradip increased by $0.8/t w-o-w to $13.2/t. South Africa-India rates rose by $0.7/t w-o-w to $11.2/t, while Indonesia-India rates climbed by $1.4/t w-o-w to $10.3/t.