Weekly coal report: Trends shaping India, global markets

South African thermal coal faces weak demand and uncertainty in terms of price support, though sellers remain hopeful of a late January recovery. Indian domestic coal prices are stable amidst subdued market activity. Met coke prices are steady despite new import restrictions, and although domestic price hikes are challenging to absorb, trades are expected to improve. Coking coal faces downward pressure with increased imports and reduced demand from Chinese steel mills, while pet coke prices remain stable amid weak trading. Freight rates for coal vessels hold steady, influenced by the holiday season and minimal fixtures.

India: Portside South African thermal coal prices stable

India's portside prices for South African thermal coal remained steady due to weak demand and ample port stocks. RB2 (5500 NAR) prices stayed at INR 9,250/tonne, while RB3 (4800 NAR) prices slightly decreased by INR 100/t to INR 7,650/t, both ex-Gangavaram. South African export offers saw marginal decreases, with RB2 falling by $0.50/t to $85.50/t FOB and RB3 down by $1/t to $65/t FOB. Although RB3 stocks are limited at some ports, sellers remain hopeful of demand recovery by late January, though price support and acceptance by sponge producers are uncertain.

Indian thermal coal prices stable in subdued market

Domestic coal prices in India held steady this week. BigMint's assessment shows 0-250 mm, 4500 GCV coal prices were unchanged at INR 4,800/t, while 0-250 mm, 5000 GCV prices remained steady at INR 5,600/t, exw-Bilaspur.

India's met coke prices stable amid import quota curbs

India's domestic met coke prices remained steady this week, with the 25-90 mm blast furnace grade at INR 32,000/t exw-Jajpur and INR 28,400/t in Gandhidham. Following the announcement of quarterly import restrictions, domestic producers raised offers to INR 34,000-36,000/t in eastern India, but the market has yet to absorb these increases. The Indian government has imposed quantitative restrictions on low-ash met coke imports for two quarters in 2025, with a total of 713,583t allowed per quarter. Despite limited imports, the Indian market is expected to see improved trades as the impact of these restrictions takes hold.

India's BigMint Coking Coal Index settles at $215/t CNF India

BigMint's premium hard coking coal index was assessed at $215/t CNF Paradip, India, on 31 December 2024, down from $223/t CNF on 14 December. Despite the decline, price indications have remained range-bound. Limited inquiries persist due to a reduced number of Australian miners offering cargoes in the Indian market. Prices of Australian coking coal, including PHCC, remain stable, with the latter assessed at $194/t FOB Australia. The limited availability of coking coal for January-February shipments has kept prices supported.

Holiday season keeps India's imported pet coke prices stable

India's imported pet coke prices remained steady this week at $102-103/t CFR for the west coast and $103-104/t CFR for the east coast. Trading activity was subdued due to the holiday season, with buyers remaining inactive. Supply and demand fundamentals showed no significant changes during this period.

India: RIL increases pet coke prices for Jan

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) increased its pet coke prices to INR 12,548/t for January 2025, up by INR 225/t from INR 12,323/t in December 2024. The price hike aligns with rising demand from infrastructure projects and the increase in imported pet coke prices, alongside RIL's limited supply.

India: Coal vessel freight stable despite lack of fixtures

India's coal vessel freight rates remained steady w-o-w, despite a lack of fixtures during the holiday season. Shipowners were inactive due to New Year celebrations, resulting in minimal cargo bookings and limited vessel movements. As of 2 January 2025, Asia-Pacific Panamax dry bulk freight rates for coal vessels from Hay Point to Paradip held at $11.5/t, unchanged from the previous week, according to BigMint's assessment.