US: Stainless steel scrap exports fall 26% y-o-y in 8MCY'24 amid weak demand

• Exports to India drop, to Netherlands, Canada surge
  
  
• Cheap imports from China, Indonesia cause concern
  
  

During the first eight months of 2024 (January-August 2024), US exports of stainless steel scrap witnessed a notable 26% drop to 0.29 million tonnes (mnt) from the previous year's 0.4 mnt, driven by sluggish demand from major buyers such as Mexico and Taiwan.

Notably, India continued to be the largest export destination in 8MCY'24, accounting for 47% of the total volume, even though shipments slowed gradually.

Meanwhile, in August 2024, US stainless steel scrap exports decreased by 8% to 33,452 tonnes (t) from 36,557 t in July, according to customs data compiled by BigMint. Similarly, August's scrap exports fell significantly by 30% compared to 47,030 t recorded during the same month in 2023.

Country-wise shipments

Key contributors to the overall drop in US stainless steel scrap exports include India, Taiwan, and Mexico, which saw weakened demand.

Conversely, exports of stainless steel scrap from the US to the Netherlands and Canada saw a notable increase, aligning with earlier observations of limited recycled stainless steel supplies in North America and Europe. However, market conditions in these regions are changing rapidly, which could affect future demand and supply dynamics. Additionally, concerns persist that cheaper materials from China and Indonesia may diminish demand for US recycled metals in key markets, impacting pricing and competitiveness.

India

Stainless steel scrap exports from the US to India decreased by 2% in January-August 2024, totalling 139,535 t compared to 142,199 t the previous year. Despite stable demand for stainless steel scrap, Indian mills are exercising caution due to weak order books and high interest rates, which has led to less aggressive buying strategies.

Additionally, there has been a gradual increase in India's imports of stainless slabs from Indonesia, with many mills conducting trials to assess their viability as a substitute for scrap. Meanwhile, heightened competition and rising imports of materials such as ferro-nickel and nickel pig iron are shaping the market dynamics.

Taiwan

Stainless steel scrap exports from the US to Taiwan experienced a notable decline in January-August 2024, with shipments falling by 47% to 28,021 t. Despite low-to-moderate demand from Taiwanese mills during this period, pricing pressure arose due to competition from nickel pig iron. Another key factor was imports of hot-rolled coil, which remained steady at an average of 85,000 t per month during the period under review.

Port-wise shipments

In the first eight months of 2024, Los Angeles led the way with 55,048 t, followed by Houston-Galveston with 46,951 t. Norfolk recorded shipments of 38,284 t, while New York City accounted for 32,485 t. Notably, stainless steel scrap supply from the East Coast and Gulf Coast accounted for roughly about 50-60% of the overall exports.

Outlook

In the upcoming months, an increase in inquiries is anticipated as mills look to restock ahead of the holidays. However, the sustainability of this buying momentum is uncertain due to rapidly changing market dynamics, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Key concerns include the upcoming US election and potential changes in interest rates, both of which could significantly impact business investment decisions.