US: Ferrous scrap exports fall by 30% m-o-m in Sep'24 on weak demand from key buyers

• Exports to Turkiye, Bangladesh, Mexico decline m-o-m
  
  
• Shredded, HMS (80:20) prices fall $3/t m-o-m in Sep'24
  
  

In September 2024, US ferrous scrap exports decreased significantly by 30% m-o-m to 1.12 million tonnes (mnt) from 1.6 mnt in August, according to customs data compiled by BigMint.

Exports decreased 7% y-o-y to 11.24 mnt in the first nine months of calendar year 2024 (9MCY'24) from 12.08 mnt in 9MCY'23.

The drop in US ferrous exports in September was due to weak demand from key markets such as Turkiye, Bangladesh, and Mexico, reflected in the significant decline in import volumes for the respective countries.

Major updates

Crude steel production: Crude steel production in the US decreased by 6% m-o-m to 6.65 mnt in September, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data.

US pig iron imports: Pig iron imports by the US increased significantly by 42% m-o-m to 0.47 mnt in September from 0.33 mnt in August. This increase was mainly driven by higher volumes from Brazil, which accounted for over 74% of the US's total pig iron imports, as prices of the material, FOB Brazil, were slightly lower in September compared to August.

US ferrous scrap imports: US imports rose by 8% m-o-m to 0.41 mnt in September from 0.38 mnt in August, with around 80% volume imported from Canada.

FOB prices see fall

• The average price of HMS (80:20) FOB East Coast hovered at $342/tonne (t) in September, reflecting a $3/t fall from $345/t in August.
  
  
• The average price of shredded FOB East Coast stood at about $362/t in September, reflecting a $3/t drop from $365/t in August.
  
  

Country-wise shipments

Turkiye continued to be the top importer in September, followed by Mexico, Bangladesh, Taiwan, and India. Notably, a substantial decrease was observed in all countries' September ferrous scrap imports.

Turkiye: Exports to Turkiye, the leading importer of scrap worldwide, fell notably by 36% m-o-m, to 0.37 mnt in September from 0.57 mnt in August. On a 9MCY basis, exports increased by 20% y-o-y, to 3.4 mnt in 9MCY'24 from 2.9 mnt in 9MCY'23.

Mexico: The US exported approximately 0.15 mnt of scrap to Mexico in September, a fall of 18% m-o-m from 0.18 mnt in August. On a 9MCY basis, exports decreased notably by 38% y-o-y, to 1.64 mnt in 9MCY'24 from 2.66 mnt in 9MCY'23.

Bangladesh: US ferrous scrap exports to Bangladesh recorded a significant 55% m-o-m decrease to 0.13 mnt in September as compared to 0.29 mnt in August. On a 9MCY basis, exports to Bangladesh increased by 32% y-o-y to 1.46 mnt in 9MCY'24 from 1.11 mnt in 9MCY'23.

Taiwan: Taiwan witnessed a fall of 17% m-o-m to 0.09 mnt in September compared to 0.10 mnt in August. On a 9MCY basis, exports decreased nominally by 3% y-o-y, to 0.90 mnt in 9MCY'24 from 0.93 mnt in 9MCY'23.

India: Ferrous scrap exports from the US to India were down 35% m-o-m to 0.05 mnt in September as compared to 0.08 mnt in August. On a 9MCY basis, exports decreased by 15% y-o-y, to 0.78 mnt in 9MCY'24 and from 0.92 mnt in 9MCY'23.

Export volumes to other regions, such as Peru and Canada, totalled 0.10 mnt in September.

Port-wise shipments

New York emerged as the leading exporting port for ferrous scrap, with total volumes of approximately 0.24 mnt (21% of total export volumes), followed by Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Outlook

There is still some uncertainty in the market about the extent to which scrap prices could soften in the coming weeks, which has left participants cautious. Export volumes might pick up slightly, later in the year, as buyers such as Turkiye look to take advantage of lower prices. However, October's export volume may turn out to be subdued, given that the US elections were in November and suppliers adopted a reserved approach ahead of them, avoiding any major market moves.