US: Ferrous scrap exports fall 4% m-o-m in Jul'24 amid weak demand from major buyers

In July 2024, US ferrous scrap exports decreased by 4% m-o-m to 1.24 million tonnes (mnt) from 1.29 mnt in June, according to customs data compiled by BigMint.

However, July scrap exports rose significantly by 39% y-o-y compared to 0.89 mnt recorded during the same month in 2023. Exports decreased 10% y-o-y to 8.51 mnt in January-July 2024 from 9.45 mnt in the same seven months in 2023.

Major indicators:

• Crude steel production: Crude steel production in the US increased by 4% m-o-m to 6.93 mnt in July, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data.
  
  

US FOB prices in July

• The average price of HMS (80:20) FOB east coast increased to about $362/tonne (t) in July, reflecting a $3/t rise from $359/t in June.
  
  
• The average price of shredded FOB east coast increased to about $382/t in July, reflecting a $3/t rise from $379/t in June.
  
  

Country-wise shipments

Turkiye continued to be the top importer, followed by Mexico, Bangladesh, and Taiwan. Notably, a substantial decrease was observed in Bangladesh, India, and Peru ferrous scrap imports.

• Bangladesh: Ferrous scrap export volumes to Bangladesh plummeted 46% m-o-m to 0.13 mnt as compared to 0.24 mnt in June. Compared to July 2023's 0.09 mnt, volumes surged by 44% y-o-y. In the first seven months of the year, exports shot up by 33% y-o-y from 0.78 mnt in January-July 2023 to 1.04 mnt in January-July 2024.
  
  
• India: India witnessed a significant drop of 31% m-o-m to 0.09 mnt as compared to 0.13 mnt in June. Compared to July 2023's 0.14 mnt, export volumes nosedived by 36% y-o-y. Additionally, exports inched down by 2% y-o-y from 0.66 mnt in January-July 2023 to 0.65 mnt in January-July 2024.
  
  
• Peru: Ferrous scrap export volumes to Peru plunged 71% m-o-m to 0.02 mnt as compared to 0.07 mnt in June. However, exports rose by 15% y-o-y from 0.33 mnt in January-July 2023 to 0.38 mnt in January-July 2024.
  
  
• Turkiye: Exports to Turkiye, the leading importer of scrap worldwide, were up by 14% m-o-m, from 0.36 mnt in June 2024 to 0.41 mnt in July 2024. Against July 2023's 0.22 mnt, export volumes skyrocketed by 86% y-o-y. In the first seven months of the year (January-July), exports increased by 13% y-o-y, from 2.26 mnt in 2023 to 2.55 mnt in 2024.
  
  
• Mexico: The US exported approximately 0.15 mnt of scrap to Mexico in July, a rise of 7% m-o-m from 0.14 mnt in June. On a y-o-y basis, exports increased by 7% compared to 0.14 mnt during the same period last year. In the first seven months of the year, exports dropped y-o-y by a considerable 40%, from 2.19 mnt in January-July 2023 to 1.31 mnt in January-July 2024.
  
  

Other regions such as Canada, Pakistan, and Vietnam contributed to the slight drop in export volume with a total volume of 0.13 mnt in July.

Outlook

Ferrous scrap export volumes are expected to remain range-bound, with major buyers such as Turkiye facing sluggish steel demand. India is also unlikely to prioritise deep-sea scrap purchases in the near term, further limiting the US' export opportunities.