US: Ferrous scrap export index fall by $2/t w-o-w; better export realisation amid sluggish domestic market

The US East Coast scrap export index remains slightly soft as export prices declined with dull demand in the domestic market and weakened construction activities during the summer break.

The US scrap export market has tightened domestic supply as dealers find it more profitable to sell scrap to Turkiye than to sell to local mills as a result, Turkish buyers remain active for US shipments.

Domestic rebar prices in the US dropped in the week while import prices were unchanged. Market sentiment was mixed, with some sources reporting an uptick in domestic demand in some regions while others said demand remained sluggish in a slow summer construction season.

Sources were divided on demand, with some reporting an upswing since the beginning of July, while others noted that business remained slow and weak.

"Scrap demand is slightly down as the seasonally slow construction market during summer is exerting an impact," a source said.

Old scrap inflows were at nearly 50% of normal levels, and steelmakers might restock aggressively if they expect higher prices later in the year.

The spread between shredded scrap and domestic rebar is now $406/t, down from $416/t due to the decline in the domestic rebar price.

Meanwhile, rebar suppliers observe that business is slow, showing no signs of an uptick yet, suggesting that significant improvement might not be seen until the second quarter of 2025.

Assessments

BigMint's assessment for HMS (80:20) bulk FOB east coast decreased by $2/t w-o-w to $361/t on Friday from $363/t a week ago.

BigMint's assessment for shredded bulk FOB east coast decreased by $2/t w-o-w to $381/t on Friday from $383/t a week ago.

Export market scenario-

Turkish buyers remain active: US-origin bulk scrap bookings remain relatively active as towards the weekend the Turkish imported ferrous scrap market witnessed multiple deals from the US.

• US-origin bulk scrap HMS (80:20) was booked by a Aegean region-based mill at $390/t.
  
  
• US-origin bulk scrap HMS (80:20) was booked by a Mediterranean region-based mill at $390/t.
  
  
• US origin bulk scrap cargo comprising HMS(90:10), Shredded, and Bonus at $392/t and $410/t (each) CFR.
  
  

Bangladeshi buyers show better interest: Buyers in Bangladesh have been steady buyers of US West Coast cargoes in the absence of activity from India as Indian buyers are still prioritising cheaper DRI, which currently has a cost advantage over scrap imports of $30/t, as per market sources.

Outlook: A rise in scrap prices is expected post-summer break and, as per market watchers there is a possibility of an uptick in August if supply tightens further, though soft demand might keep prices stable after stable July.