US: Ferrous scrap export index sees minor uptick of $1/t w-o-w; suppliers cautious ahead of elections

The US ferrous scrap export index increased slightly due to firm offers and limited availability, which pushed up market sentiments for the sellers.

On the other hand, Turkish rebar prices have been steady, encouraging regional mills to maintain scrap import prices aligned with current scrap export offers from the US.

FOB price assessments:

• BigMint's assessment for HMS (80:20) bulk FOB East Coast increased by $1/t w-o-w to $345/t on Friday, up from $344/t a week ago.
  
  
• BigMint's assessment for shredded bulk FOB East Coast also increased by $1/t w-o-w to $365/t on Friday, up from $364/t a week ago.
  
  

US dockyard export prices on the East Coast were stable to slightly lower due to a steady export market coupled with slightly weaker domestic sales, with sources mentioning marginally lower offer levels in the coming days.

Meanwhile, early September's US domestic trade had slightly lower prices in coastal markets, with a decline of $10/t on grades like PNS and shredded scrap.

Finished steel market

US HRC prices are expected to remain stable, supported by strong contract orders and upcoming planned mill outages. Despite weaker spot buying, domestic mills are holding firm on pricing, with limited competition from imports. However, overall demand continues to be a concern.

Sentiment around US finished steel prices for September remains steady, while expectations for raw materials are flat to slightly down compared to August. Participants noted that demand remains weak, with hopes that a US interest rate cut could help boost it.

Buyers' market sentiment

Turkiye mills do some bookings: This week, Turkish scrap mills reportedly booked around four US-origin deep-sea bulk scrap cargo at $370-372/t range. US scrap collectors are holding firm on a $372-375/t CFR target for HMS (80:20), while Turkish mills with stable rebar markets are mostly likely to book a few cargoes in the coming weeks as well. Turkish mills may remain sidelined from the import market if US-origin HMS (80:20) offers to reach over $375/t CFR.

As per a trader source, US scrap export prices are majorly supported by better rebar sales and aiming to stabilise scrap prices while boosting steel sales. The current scrap-to-rebar spread crossed $215/t with rebar prices at $585-590/t and US-origin HMS (80:20) indicated at $370/t CFR.

Bangladesh's demand drops: Bangladesh's demand for scrap has dropped significantly, reducing the impact of shortages from the supplier side. US scrap offers are $385-390/t for HMS and slightly higher for shredded at $395-400/t on a CFR Chattogram basis.

As per a market insider, US suppliers are currently holding off on offers, waiting for better market conditions and especially the elections.

Outlook: The US ferrous scrap export market is expected to remain range-bound, influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuating global scrap prices. Dealers and exporters anticipate a continued largely stable trade flow pattern, especially where Turkiye is concerned.