US: Ferrous scrap export index rises by $10/t w-o-w amid tightening domestic supply

• Turkish mills rush to procure scrap before tags climb higher
  
  
• Bangladeshi mills become more active ahead of Ramadan
  
  

US ferrous scrap export offers rose by around $10/tonne (t) w-o-w amid increasing competition for material, driven by tightening domestic supply. This price surge comes amid a significant rise in US deep-sea scrap offers for Turkiye.

US exporters are reportedly targeting over $350/t CFR for HMS (80:20), fuelled by strong expectations for the domestic ferrous scrap market in February.

FOB assessments (US East Coast, bulk)

• Shredded rose by $10/t w-o-w to $348/t.
  
  
• HMS (80:20) increased by $10/t w-o-w to $328/t.
  
  

CFR assessments (bulk)

• HMS (80:20) was assessed at $348/t CFR Turkiye, up $8/t w-o-w.
  
  
• HMS (80:20) stood at $340/t CFR Vietnam, up by $5/t w-o-w.
  
  
• HMS (80:20) was at $359/t CFR Chattogram, down $6/t w-o-w.
  
  

Domestic scrap market

Shredded scrap is in short supply and could become more expensive than busheling in February. Currently, in the Midwest, shredded and busheling are trading at a typical $20/t spread, priced at $380/t and $400/t, respectively.

Updates on key importing regions

Turkiye: Demand for US-origin scrap in Turkiye rose sharply, with deep-sea HMS (80:20) prices climbing up by $8/t w-o-w to $348/t CFR. This increase was driven by delays in scrap deliveries, stemming from supply disruptions due to winter weather in the US. Turkish mills rushed to procure US-origin scrap, making purchases at higher values, as prices are expected to continue rising. Limited scrap availability and strong domestic demand in the US pushed up seller targets to $350-360/t CFR.

Some mills in Turkiye faced inventory shortages and, consequently, have requested emergency shipments ahead of the usual monthly trading period. As a result, there is a growing urgency to secure material for February.

Bangladesh: Demand for US-origin scrap in Bangladesh fluctuated this week. Bulk HMS (80:20) fell by $6/t w-o-w to $358-360/t, but containerised scrap prices remained steady. With Ramadan approaching, mills became more active in securing cargo to build up inventories.

Fresh offers for US bulk scrap stood at $360-365/t CFR, but mills held bids firm at $355-356/t despite buyers looking to secure material ahead of potential market tightening.

Vietnam: US-origin scrap in Vietnam saw an increase of $5/t w-o-w, with bulk HMS (80:20) priced at $340/t CFR. However, Vietnamese buyers remained cautious, interested only below $340/t CFR due to the Tet holidays. Stronger market sentiments internationally, particularly in Turkiye, drove up tags.

Potential tariff war worries US recyclers

US scrap recyclers are worried about possible retaliatory tariffs if President Trump imposes new trade measures, said Robin Weiner, the president of the Recycled Materials Association (ReMA), at the MRAI conference on 29 January 2025.

While a tariff exemption for shredder wear parts was extended until May 2025, efforts are ongoing to secure further extensions. Trump, who returned to office in 2025, has already proposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting 1 February 2025.

Outlook

US ferrous scrap prices are expected to rise due to strong demand and higher steel prices. Turkiye's mills may end up paying more, and Bangladesh is expected to accelerate procurement before Ramadan. As mills rush to secure material, further price hikes seem likely.