Turkiye: Imported scrap prices fall $3/t w-o-w; outlook bearish amid weak rebar sales

• Cheaper billets from China, CIS pressure scrap prices
  
  
• Mills focus on reducing finished steel inventories
  
  

The Turkish imported scrap market experienced a softening trend this week with a slight drop of $3/t w-o-w amid low-priced deals from Europe towards the second half of the week.

Imported scrap prices maintain levels last seen towards the end of November 2022. Expectations for a seasonal increase in Turkish import scrap prices this winter have largely dissipated amid continued drop in rebar sales.

Workable prices from the US remained at $340-342/t CFR, holding the bottom levels of 2024 as well, following a couple of recent deals finalised from Europe at $332-337/t CFR Turkiye levels.

On the other hand, US suppliers remain firm with offers of around $344-345/t citing good domestic scrap usage in recent days.

Assessments

• BigMint's assessment for US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap stood at $340/t CFR, down by $3/t w-o-w.
  
  
• BigMint's assessment for bulk HMS (80:20) from the US east coast stood at $318/t FOB, down by $3/t w-o-w.
  
  

The scrap-to-rebar spread remains range-bound at $235-240/t as rebar export prices stood at $570-575/t FOB.

With European HMS (80:20) sales at $332-337/t CFR and billet at $480-485/t CFR, the spread between billet and scrap is around $140-145/t.

Market scenario

A Turkish mill source stated that mills are focusing on reducing finished steel inventories due to concerns over President-elect Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese steel. This has lowered demand for ferrous scrap, as mills prepare for a possible oversupply in global steel markets.

As per a European yard owner, the doc price levels fell to Euro 270-275/t ($285-290/t) hitting the minimum doc price for this month.

Following this, a US scrap supplier mentioned that US-origin FOB scrap prices for HMS (80:20) are expected to drop to $300-310/t levels if a fresh deal is concluded from the US.

A Turkiye-based trader commented on the falling prices, saying, "The oversupply from European recyclers and the cheaper availability of billets from China and the CIS region are pushing prices down."

"Turkish mills have booked only 16-17 cargoes for December, far below the usual 26-27. This has led to an oversupply of material," a Turkish source informed.

Imported scrap deals

• An EU supplier sold HMS (80:20) to a buyer in the East Marmara region at $344/t, also for mid-December shipment.
  
  
• Another EU seller sold HMS (80:20) and Bonus to a Mediterranean buyer at $337/t and $357/t for December.
  
  

An unconfirmed bulk cargo sale by a European supplier was reported at $332/t for HMS 80:20. Similarly, a US deal was heard at $342/t but remained unverified at the time of reporting.

Domestic market

Despite price cuts, Turkish steelmakers are experiencing low steel sales in both domestic and export markets, resulting in higher finished steel stocks and reduced deep-sea scrap imports. Kardemir, a major steelmaker has lowered its steel billet prices recently by $20-25/t, now at $495/t and $520/t, compared to $515-520/t and $540-545/t in early November.

A mill source said, "Everyone is selling stocks where there's a margin. Scrap prices will face tough weeks ahead."

Outlook

EU scrap prices could drop to $330/t CFR levels in the coming days as suppliers rush to offload cargo, but with end-product prices under pressure, buyers are likely to remain cautious. Mills are expected to maintain low inventories as the market is expected to stay slow due to year-end holidays, with limited potential for a near-term recovery.