Turkiye: Imported ferrous scrap prices rise by up to $3/t w-o-w; US election outcome keep suppliers bullish

• Offers edge up on expectation of pick-up in demand, steady buying
  
  
• US scrap supply expected to reduce on Trump's protectionist stance
  
  

Imported ferrous scrap prices edged up by up to $3/t w-o-w, with mills booking scrap slowly for December. Notably, the market remains positive after the US election. Before the election results, US suppliers were cautious, holding off on firm offers till the right moment for a further rise in demand.

Price assessment

• BigMint's assessment for US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap stood at $365/t CFR, up by $3/t w-o-w.
  
  
• BigMint's assessment for bulk HMS (80:20) from the US east coast stood at $339/t FOB, up by $5/t w-o-w.
  
  

A Turkish mill source suggested that HMS (80:20) prices might not drop below $365/t CFR for high-quality scrap, as the market may have hit the bottom. Still, suppliers are holding off, hoping to push prices up.

Market updates

Impact of US election: In the US, the domestic market's mood has turned positive following the election results, particularly with US President Donald Trump's protectionist stance, which has supported long-term sentiment.

Globally, the expectation is that higher finished steel prices in the US could lead to reduced scrap availability for export, while China might introduce a larger stimulus package to protect economic growth.

"A lot of uncertainty has cleared after the election, but Turkish mills are still hesitant to raise their scrap purchase prices," commented a US recycler.

Reduced restocking urgency: A Turkish mill source mentioned that declining domestic rebar prices and weaker sales volumes have reduced the need for restocking scrap. Furthermore, with scrap still available from European recyclers, near-term price increases are limited.

Although steady booking is taking place, mills are also adopting a "wait-and-watch" approach due to weak rebar demand and falling prices. There is less urgency to buy scrap, and some mills are purchasing at current levels from European suppliers. However, concerns about price hikes affecting domestic sales are lingering.

EU recyclers' seller targets: With the outcome of the US presidential election becoming clearer, EU recyclers raised their seller targets, offering US-origin HMS (80:20) at $370-372/t CFR and EU-origin at $360-365/t CFR.

Euro-dollar exchange rate impact: The sharp depreciation of the euro against the US dollar has put pressure on scrap prices. This currency shift could attract more recyclers to sell at around $364-365/t CFR from the Baltic region. A weakened euro has limited short-term price increases for European scrap.

Scrap prices remained stable in the middle of the week, amid limited deals from Turkish buyers, with a Marmara-based steelmaker purchasing a mixed lot from a French collector, including HMS (80:20) at $359.5/and shredded/bonus scrap at $381.5/t CFR Turkiye.

Drop in Turkish rebar export prices: Turkish exported rebar prices dropped below $600/t FOB, with the possibility of lower prices, depending on the euro-dollar exchange rate.

The scrap-to-rebar spread dropped to $230/t as rebar export prices saw a drop this week.

Slow billet market: The Turkish billet market saw weak activity last week, with some suppliers testing higher prices in line with Asian competitors, but overall demand remains cautious due to developments in the scrap market.

Local billet offers were at $535-575/t exw, with prices near the top end deemed unworkable. Kardemir's billets were available at $535/t exw, while southern Turkish producers offered at $570-575/t exw, but no deals were made. Imported Chinese billets were at $505-510/t CFR, and Malaysian billets stood at $520-530/t CFR for December shipments. Overall demand for billets, rebars, and wire rods remains low.

Kardemir secures rebar sales amid lower prices

Outlook

A modest price increase of $5-10/t is expected, but weak finished steel demand is limiting a strong recovery. Turkish mills are also awaiting news of a potential stimulus package from China, which could influence scrap demand and prices.