Turkiye: Imported ferrous scrap offers remain largely stable w-o-w on improved rebar sales

• Decline in European scrap offer levels
  
  
• Turkish mills capitalise on strong rebar sales
  
  
• Widening price disparity between US and EU-origin materials
  
  

The Turkish imported ferrous scrap market remained largely stable throughout the week, with fluctuations mainly driven by European oversupply and firm US scrap prices. Strong domestic rebar sales in Turkiye kept prices supported.

Early in the week, the market faced some downward pressure as a result of an oversupply of scrap in Europe. European recyclers faced challenges in offloading large inventories, particularly in the Benelux region, where collection costs were high. Prices dropped, with EU-origin HMS (80:20) at $357-365/tonne (t) CFR. Subsequently, mills held back on large purchases, cautious about the excess supply and pricing pressure. The looming threat of a US longshoremen's strike further dampened market sentiment, especially for US scrap suppliers.

Midweek saw a rebound in demand, driven largely by the strong performance of the domestic Turkish rebar market, where prices surged to $615/t exw. Turkish mills, benefiting from a healthy spread between rebar and scrap prices, began to accept higher prices for US-origin scrap, with deals closing at $368/t CFR for premium HMS (80:20). However, European-origin scrap continued to trade at a discount, as recyclers offloaded stock due to weak demand from domestic EU mills. This resulted in a growing price gap between US- and EU-origin material.

Assessment trends

Currently, the scrap-to-rebar spread stands at $222/t, with rebar prices at $590/t and US-origin HMS (80:20) at $368/t CFR.

Recent Deals

• US-origin HMS (80:20) sold at $365/t to a mill in East Marmara.
  
  
• US-origin HMS (80:20), shredded, and bonus sold at $368/t, $388/t, and $388/t, respectively, to a West Marmara mill.
  
  
• US-origin HMS sold at $367/t to another East Marmara mill.
  
  
• UK-origin HMS booked at $363/t CFR in East Marmara.
  
  
• UK-origin HMS sold at $362/t CFR to another Aegean region mill.
  
  
• German-origin HMS sold at $364.75/t to another East Marmara mill.
  
  
• Belgian-origin HMS sold at $360/t CFR to a West Marmara mill.
  
  
• EU-origin HMS (80:20) booked at $357/t CFR by a West Marmara mill.
  
  
• EU-origin HMS booked at $361/t CFR by an Aegean-based mill.
  
  
• EU-origin HMS (80:20) booked at $361/t CFR by a West Marmara mill.
  
  
• EU-origin HMS (80:20) booked at $361/t CFR by a Mediterranean mill.
  
  
• EU-origin HMS (80:20) sold at $361/t CFR to a West Marmara mill.
  
  
• EU-origin HMS (80:20) sold at $361/t CFR to a Mediterranean mill.
  
  

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Outlook

The Turkish imported scrap market is expected to remain volatile. Scrap offers from Europe may remain lower compared to US offers, driven by high inventory levels and weak domestic demand in the EU. However, rising domestic rebar prices in Turkiye, combined with the wide scrap-to-rebar margin, could lend upward support to scrap prices. If the US longshoremen's strike escalates, potential disruptions to scrap shipments in October could further contribute to market volatility. In the short term, the price gap between US- and European-origin scrap is likely to persist.